Japan Time 2024Mar 30 (Wed) 0:30pmFrom then on, Chairman Powell of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will speak about macroeconomic and monetary policy in San Francisco, California.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held on the 19th and 20th decided to leave policy interest rates unchanged for 5 consecutive meetings. It became clear that financial officials still anticipate that there is a high possibility that interest rate cuts will be made 3 times this year. As a result, interest rate cuts were observed for the end of the yearSelling for dollarsIt spurred on me. There is no change in Chairman Powell's policy of suppressing inflation,Pigeon schoolMaintain posture. If the strength of growth in the American economy is re-expressed in the fixed gross domestic product (GDP) value for the October-12 fiscal year, and it becomes clear that inflation is improving stagnation even in the PCE core price index,Dollar sales have recededIt's going to be done. However, if the chairman re-emphasizes the dovish stance at the debate, dollar sales will continue. What will be the results?
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The Nikkei average is expected to be 40,500 yen on 3/22
The cancellation of negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan, the abolition of yield curves, and the suspension of ETF purchases on 3/19 evaluated aspects of Japan's fundamentals and financial normalization, such as wage increases including large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises, and future interest rate increases will also be moderate with an eye on the economic environment, so there is no impact on the appreciation of the yen, and there is a positive side to stock prices. Also, as for the market, the FOMC results on 3/20 the next day have not turned to an increase even though there is a solid US economy, steady consumption, and house prices have stopped falling, and the wait for data such as movements of core PCE deflators will not change in the future. Although there are differences between hawks and pigeons within the Federal Reserve, risk management for interest rate cuts that are too slow is also necessary, so the average of dot charts is a movement that incorporates about 3 times a year → 2 times a year. The exchange rate is expected to depreciate slightly and break through 150 yen. The start of the first interest rate cut in June was almost unchanged, and the Fed's interest rate cut policy was known from Chairman Powell's comments, and the market rose from a sense of purchase security. The upward movement in the US market and the depreciation of the yen will be tailwind, and the Japanese market will also rise on 3/22, and the closing price is expected to be 40,500 yen.