After all......

I might have gotten on rough waves!

In the minutes of the FOMC (June) meeting, discussions about tapering quantitative easing have begun, but the conditions for policy changes are not yet in place. However, many participants believe that two additional rate hikes this year would be appropriate. It is a difficult situation of wanting to continue rate hikes but also wanting to stop them. This does not explicitly state the terminal rate.
The UK is the country that continues rate hikes the most among major economies. In June, the policy interest rate was increased from 25bp to 50bp, but this increase is not enough. The latest combined inflation rate for May is 8.7%. The core rate is 7.1%. The policy interest rate is too low considering the persistent inflation. The market assumes a terminal rate of 6%, but even that is too low. It is inevitable to expect up to 7%. In the financial policy meeting on August 3rd, the UK might see a rate hike of 75bp instead of just 50bp. This would further strengthen the pound, and considering the future increase in fixed-rate housing loan rates linked to 2-year and 5-year fixed interest rates, a housing market crash seems unavoidable. Due to carrying inflation elements of the Brexit, the possibility of a hard landing seems high...

・Last week, as I said “the atmosphere has changed,” “SQ is at a turning point,” and “the end of the AI bubble,” the mood of decline has come.
・I was saying, but how about ☺️
・The ratings for Alphabet and Tesla were lowered in a timely manner from yesterday's concert.
・It's the end of the AI-driven market.
・Economic indicators were announced in July, but there is no FOMC, and since most investors are not in market prices during the summer vacation period ahead of Jackson Hole in August, it is illegal to compete here.
・Since it was converted due to quadruple witching on 16th (Friday), are you gradually increasing cash from where you said it was a decline?
・I think the sharp drop from summer to fall is an opportunity.