Chicago Fed President, interest rate cut in 2025 is slightly smaller than previously expected - further from the neutral interest rate.
December 21, 2024 1:44 AM JST
There is still a significant possibility of interest rates falling over the next 12-18 months - Mr. Goolsbee.
Inflation is heading towards the target of 2% - according to an interview with CNBC.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Gourutzby revealed that he has slightly adjusted his 2025 interest rate outlook upwards. However, he indicated that borrowing costs are expected to decrease significantly in the next 12-18 months.
On the 20th, Gourutzby stated in an interview with the US economic specialized channel CNBC, 'I have made the trajectory of interest rates in 25 years slightly shallower, but overall, the inflation rate is significantly decreasing.' He mentioned, 'Inflation is heading towards 2%. There is still a good possibility that interest rates could decline significantly over the next 12-18 months.'
Gourutzby pointed out that monetary policy is still far from the so-called neutral interest rate that does not stimulate or suppress the economy. He agreed with the view of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that the policy is 'significantly restrictive on the economy.'
In addition, the US personal consumption expenditure announced on the 20th...

Cleveland Federal Reserve President, the reason for the dissenting vote at the FOMC was concerns about inflation.December 20, 2024 23:21 JST
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hamack cited that he believes interest rates should remain unchanged until further progress is made in curbing inflation as the reason for casting a dissenting vote at the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
At the regular meeting held on the 17th and 18th, the FOMC decided to cut the key policy rate by 0.25 points. This marks the third consecutive rate cut meeting.
Chairman Hammack explained that he considers interest rates to be close to a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. He suggested that interest rates should be maintained at a relatively high level to moderately restrain economic activity for the time being.
In the statement released on the 20th, the same chairman stated, "Based on the assumption that monetary policy is not far from a neutral stance, we hope to maintain the policy until new evidence shows that the inflation rate is recovering towards the target of 2%."
Furthermore, if the inflation rate remains above 2% for an extended period, there is a risk of inflation expectations becoming unstable, and if that happens, it may be more difficult to return the inflation rate to the target...

$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ It's okay to say there was no upward surprise, right, this.Is this almost as expected?Interest rates are falling due to the possibility of continued rate cuts. It may not go positive today, but I pray there won't be any serious consequences.

$TAT Technologies (TATT.US)$ It's quite rare for a company to rise by more than 6% in a day when PCE is in turmoil. It is an Israel-based company with a strong defense system, so it seems unaffected. Still cheap! I see it easily surpassing 50 next year!

In November, US PCE prices increased by 2.4%, indicating an increase in personal consumption. The month-on-month comparison suggests stability.December 21, 2024, 1:01 AM GMT+9
The US Department of Commerce announced on the 20th that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for November rose by 2.4% compared to the previous year, accelerating from the 2.3% growth in the previous month. The increase in personal consumption, which accounts for over two-thirds of the US economy, highlighted the resilience of the US economy. Market expectations were for a 2.5% increase.
At the same time, the month-on-month PCE, which indicates the 'instantaneous wind speed' of prices, increased by 0.1%, slowing down from October's 0.2%. Additionally, the core inflation excluding volatile food and energy also saw a slight increase compared to the previous month, the first in six months.
Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist of LPL Financial, pointed out that the wealth effect from increased income and asset value is providing consumers with spending power, and against the backdrop of robust consumer demand, the economy continues to expand. He stated, "Inflation has been milder than expected, but the 'stickiness' of certain items supports the Federal Reserve's hesitation to make substantial rate cuts next year."
The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is holding a monetary policy meeting this week, discussing various economic indicators and potential policy adjustments.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) continues to hold the position of the 'top pick' in the chip giant, maintaining an overweight rating and a target price of $166, making Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) outstanding in the investment community. Analysts led by Joseph Moore are shining the spotlight on Nvidia's cutting-edge Blackwell GPU, which is ready to dominate the landscape of AI by the second half of 2025. Despite short-term constraints such as product readiness and reduced hopper demand, Morgan Stanley emphasizes to investors that these challenges are temporary, with Nvidia's annual R&D investment exceeding $12 billion, driving leadership in AI hardware and innovation.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected three warning signs for NVDA.
The sharp increase in demand for Blackwell GPUs across various applications is supported...

$Innodata (INOD.US)$
Bought too much and about one-third of my portfolio is in this stock, but I made a huge profit from turning positive in the last two days. It was a high proportion so I decreased it, but I really want to buy more. 😂

Investors' risk preference faces "sudden turbulence" due to the Federal Reserve's shift in stance - Bank of America
December 21, 2024 4:21 JST
If the S&P 500 continues in this direction, it will see significant decline on a weekly basis for the first time in about 3 months.
The spread of the periphery in the global stock market is still in a "miserable" situation - Mr. Hartnett of Heartnett.
Due to the hawkish shift of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the extremely bullish sentiment of stock investors, a sudden disturbance in risk preference has been caused. This was pointed out by Bank of America (BofA)'s strategist, Mr. Michael Hartnett.
The S&P 500 stock index is on course to see a significant decline of about 3 months on a weekly basis. The FOMC this week strongly hinted at putting concerns about inflation back in the forefront. In the latest quarterly economic forecast, the expected number of interest rate cuts for 2025 has decreased since September. According to the monthly fund manager survey released by BofA this week, fund allocations to US stocks reached a record high level prior to the FOMC meeting, while cash allocations reached an all-time low. BofA pointed out that this triggered a signal for selling stocks.
Late on the 19th...

In the USA stock market, there was an increase, with a slowdown in the growth of the PCE month-on-month, resulting in a weekly decline.December 21, 2024, 7:21 AM GMT+9
The USA stock market ended the trading day with an increase. Concerns about interest rates eased due to the announcement of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on this day and comments from Federal Reserve (FRB) officials.
The US Department of Commerce announced that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for November rose by 2.4% compared to the previous year, accelerating from 2.3% the previous month. At the same time, the month-on-month PCE, which shows the 'instantaneous speed' of prices, increased by 0.1%, slowing down from 0.2% in October. Additionally, the core inflation excluding volatile food and energy also saw a slight increase in the month-on-month comparison, the first increase in 6 months.
Stocks rise in the USA, with inflation under control - the dollar briefly fell below 156 yen.December 21, 2024, 6:45 AM
PCE Statistics fall below financial estimates, supporting rate cuts speculation - US bond prices rise.
Crude oil sees a slight rebound, mindful of President Trump's warning - Gold reacts favorably to the falling dollar.