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アマチュア投資家 Private ID: 181271061
素人投資家です コアはS&P500で個別やレバレッジETFは基本短期売買 インフルエンサーを気取る気はありませんので、あしからず
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    $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ I honestly don't understand the feelings of people who continue to adhere to leverage etfs of bonds that have significantly underperformed stocks in recent years. I remember a time when these types of discussions were rampant on bulletin boards, YouTube, etc. I think those who continued to bet heavily experienced significant missed opportunities just from that. But what do they think will happen in the future that will cause them to rise even more than stocks? Of course, no one knows the future, and events that cannot even be imagined, like the COVID-19 pandemic, may occur. Naturally, fees and taxes will be taken if you continue to trade. I have also traded in the short term, but now I have no intention at all. If you can't switch your mindset, personally I don't think it's a good idea to easily invest in good stocks.
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    $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ I don't think it's necessarily bad earnings. It may take time, but I think it will rise in the long run. Explosive growth like before may not be expected. Rather, the risk of significant losses is high for stocks that were rising on speculative expectations, as the boom seems to be fading. In fact, there are many companies in the constituent stocks with unclear prospects. I have said this before, but I don't see any benefits in investing in these types of stocks, not in Nvidia now. $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ However, I myself have been somewhat affected by getting involved in speculative investments. Biotech stocks tend to rise on expectations without accompanying performance, and currently, there are many stocks with abnormally low PEs getting hit hard due to high interest rates, so if interest rates fall...
    Nevertheless, I myself am somewhat involved in contrarian investing. $Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3x Shares ETF (LABU.US)$ I don't think it's necessarily bad earnings. It may take time, but I think it will rise in the long run. Explosive growth like before may not be expected. Rather
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    $Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3x Shares ETF (LABU.US)$ Thinking of this decline as an opportunity, I broke some cash and increased my buy. I doubled my shareholding, but who knows what will happen.
    Not recommended.
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    $Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI.US)$ The index was bought at full position before interest rate cuts began, but other observations were generally as expected. $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ has declined, $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ It also fell. The idea that bonds will rise once interest rate cuts begin is too short-circuited, and the semiconductor sector $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Other than some stocks that are doing great, there are also many stocks that are receiving headwinds, including national policies. In other words, when NVIDIA, which is not worth the risk even if purchased with a sector ETF (you can see that there is no advantage at all by comparing charts) falls, there is a high possibility that other stocks will fall further.
    Above all, while short-term interest rates have risen this much...
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    $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Before talking about the FOMC, it seems strange that there are people who buy based on the atmosphere without even knowing that the 30-year bond auction tonight should be a concern at this timing. Honestly, I think it's strange as a premise before discussing the results.
    If you seriously think that you can win against professionals (geniuses among geniuses worldwide) with such a simple idea just because there is a rate cut guarantee in the future, then there is nothing to be done.
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    $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ I think that some semiconductor stocks will face headwinds with Trump becoming president. I have been thinking this for a while, but I believe it is not worth the risk to buy the entire sector of semiconductors at this stage. If you are betting on future growth in the long term, I still think that nvidia is the only choice.
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    $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Regarding election results, it's a matter of luck, not analysis. Even the individuals involved were unaware. And I think those who have no idea why bonds are being sold should not get involved in leveraged ETFs in the first place.
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    $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ When adjusting the portfolio with asset allocation, some risks are incorporated to take risks. Despite being already high-risk commodities biased towards high-tech, there are now even riskier leveraged products. While there may be occasional wins, it is not inherently cost-effective. It is indeed a fact that opportunities for significant gains exist, but the longer the involvement, the higher the risk of substantial losses. If you hear voices saying "ambiguous, confusing" Indexes are not easy (stocks are inherently high-risk), if you want to make big profits!, that's a flag. There's no such thing as an easy game like that, so it should be tackled with caution.
    In fact, a large majority of those who fail to correctly understand risks end up losing. Surprisingly, many people do not fully understand the risks. Even in the short term, there is likely little win rate, and even more so in the long term.
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    $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ I don't think it's a significant adjustment, but it's natural to expect it to drop. Considering that the rsp is filled on a daily basis, I can only think that it dropped at this timing.
    Leveraged ETFs in sectors with large fluctuations such as semiconductors have blatantly lagged in performance. A quick comparison with non-leveraged ETFs since the beginning of the year clearly shows this. Leveraged ETFs have a definite losing element by continuously paying unfavorable costs, so they should never be chosen as a means of asset formation. Due to many structural flaws, relying on things like trendlines is also not advisable.
    Some people often write about how institutions, which have funds incomparable to yours, execute far more trades each day than you would in a lifetime, pay huge fees to brokerage firms in exchange for market information, and leverage the latest technology and talented minds to trade. Do you seriously think you can beat them?
    However, even excellent fund managers eventually fall significantly behind and drop out of the market as time goes by. Index investing, on the other hand, involves...
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    $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ Perhaps the interest rates are rising in anticipation of the presidential election aftermath. Avoiding inconvenient facts for one's own beliefs is the worst thing to do, yet being swayed by them is human nature. With interest rates rising this far, I feel like there will be a moment where the stock market crumbles, but I think there is a high possibility that it will turn into a buying opportunity.
    As for myself, I am already fully invested in indexes and plan to continue monthly contributions steadily. I regret having made timing investments in the past, but since I have significantly increased my assets this year, although it may sound bad to say I'm cashing out wins, I plan to transition to investments where I am conscious of asset allocation and do not sell. In other words, despite observing the market sentiment, I believe it is best to bet on the overall market, adjusting the risk tolerance by investing in the S&P 500 (main) and some in the Nasdaq. I will adjust when increasing positions without selling.
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