USA announced on December 6, 2024 at 22:30.unemployment rateresulted in a percentage compared to the previous month's 4.1%.4.2%It was.
This is.Stock priceIs a factor.
Originally,unemployment rateRising is a factor for stock market declines, but the market isRate cutIn situations where it is being pleaded, it will become a bullish factor.
Announced at 0:00 on December 5, 2024ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity IndexResult compared to 56.0 in the previous month52.1It was.
This index determines the prosperity and recession based on a benchmark of 50, so this time, with a value above 50, the USA service sector is prosperous.
One thing to note here isRate cutis ongoing in the midst of economic slowdown.
Rate cutis a tailwind for stocks, but it is meaningless if economic growth does not occur.
unemployment rateRising is a factor for a stock high as it becomes a material for interest rate cuts, but an increase in unemployment becomes a factor for a stock market decline as it slows down economic growth.
This is contradictory.
If we were to compare it to cooking, just eating raw meat while making curry would not be delicious, and eating individual spices alone would not be tasty either.
The combination of ingredients, heat level, timing, cutting method, the target audience, and many other elements overlap to create one delicious dish.
Topped curry with cheese...
This is.Stock priceIs a factor.
Originally,unemployment rateRising is a factor for stock market declines, but the market isRate cutIn situations where it is being pleaded, it will become a bullish factor.
Announced at 0:00 on December 5, 2024ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity IndexResult compared to 56.0 in the previous month52.1It was.
This index determines the prosperity and recession based on a benchmark of 50, so this time, with a value above 50, the USA service sector is prosperous.
One thing to note here isRate cutis ongoing in the midst of economic slowdown.
Rate cutis a tailwind for stocks, but it is meaningless if economic growth does not occur.
unemployment rateRising is a factor for a stock high as it becomes a material for interest rate cuts, but an increase in unemployment becomes a factor for a stock market decline as it slows down economic growth.
This is contradictory.
If we were to compare it to cooking, just eating raw meat while making curry would not be delicious, and eating individual spices alone would not be tasty either.
The combination of ingredients, heat level, timing, cutting method, the target audience, and many other elements overlap to create one delicious dish.
Topped curry with cheese...
Translated
15
Announced on December 3, 2024 at 0:00ISM Manufacturing Business Activity IndexResult compared to the previous month's 46.548.4It was.
This is the data for November.
This index is considered prosperous if it is above 50, and recessionary if it is below 50.
The current manufacturing industry is considered to be in a recession.
IdeallyISM Manufacturing Business Activity IndexThe rise is a factor driving stock prices higher.
Currently, what the market desires isRate cutIt is.
In the future, if the manufacturing sector picks up again, the FRB will determine that the economy has improved.Rate cutI will halt production.
In the current market conditions, it is favorable for stocks to not become too optimistic.
ISM Manufacturing Business Activity IndexIf it continues to rise, it may exceed financial estimates.a factor for the stock market downturn.There is a possibility of making a decision earlier than expected.
This is the data for November.
This index is considered prosperous if it is above 50, and recessionary if it is below 50.
The current manufacturing industry is considered to be in a recession.
IdeallyISM Manufacturing Business Activity IndexThe rise is a factor driving stock prices higher.
Currently, what the market desires isRate cutIt is.
In the future, if the manufacturing sector picks up again, the FRB will determine that the economy has improved.Rate cutI will halt production.
In the current market conditions, it is favorable for stocks to not become too optimistic.
ISM Manufacturing Business Activity IndexIf it continues to rise, it may exceed financial estimates.a factor for the stock market downturn.There is a possibility of making a decision earlier than expected.
Translated
7
USA announced on November 27, 2024 at 0:00Number of new residential construction salesResults against the previous month's 0.738 million cases0.61 million casesIt was.
This is the data for the previous month of October.
Affects the housing market.US 10-year bond yieldsHas been rising from September 18, 2024, until November 14.
Announced every Wednesday.USA 30-year home loanHas risen from the bottom of 6.13% on September 25, 2024 to a peak of 6.90% on November 20.
In October, Number of new residential construction salesit can be said that it was directly affected by the increase in mortgage interest rates.
The slowdown in the housing market Consumer Price Indexleads to stagnation.a factor for the stock market downturn.Is a factor.
Announced on November 26, 2024 at 11:00 PM.Case-Shiller Residence Prices (20 cities) (year-over-yearcomparison)resulted in 5.21% from the previous month.4.57%It was.
Residence price declines to stimulate home purchases.Stock priceIs a factor.
Case-Shiller Residence Prices (20 cities) (year-over-yearcomparison)Peaking at 7.5% announced on May 28, 2024, it has steadily declined in the recent period.4.75%until now.
This is for the stock market.Rising long-term interest rates are negative for the US economy, but they are viewed favorably as a sign of the end of monetary tightening or a move towards easing, so stocks are bought paradoxically. Stocks have a leading nature, so when the Federal Reserve (US central bank) is seen as putting a halt to interest rate hikes, stocks are already likely to be bought. Now is the time to buy stocks when the public is fearful that they may go down further. There is a possibility that they may go down further, so it is recommended to divide the purchases and buy them in parts.It is.
住宅ローン金利が高いことは事実であるため安堵(あんど)の表情を浮かべることはできません。
Crude oil prices...
This is the data for the previous month of October.
Affects the housing market.US 10-year bond yieldsHas been rising from September 18, 2024, until November 14.
Announced every Wednesday.USA 30-year home loanHas risen from the bottom of 6.13% on September 25, 2024 to a peak of 6.90% on November 20.
In October, Number of new residential construction salesit can be said that it was directly affected by the increase in mortgage interest rates.
The slowdown in the housing market Consumer Price Indexleads to stagnation.a factor for the stock market downturn.Is a factor.
Announced on November 26, 2024 at 11:00 PM.Case-Shiller Residence Prices (20 cities) (year-over-yearcomparison)resulted in 5.21% from the previous month.4.57%It was.
Residence price declines to stimulate home purchases.Stock priceIs a factor.
Case-Shiller Residence Prices (20 cities) (year-over-yearcomparison)Peaking at 7.5% announced on May 28, 2024, it has steadily declined in the recent period.4.75%until now.
This is for the stock market.Rising long-term interest rates are negative for the US economy, but they are viewed favorably as a sign of the end of monetary tightening or a move towards easing, so stocks are bought paradoxically. Stocks have a leading nature, so when the Federal Reserve (US central bank) is seen as putting a halt to interest rate hikes, stocks are already likely to be bought. Now is the time to buy stocks when the public is fearful that they may go down further. There is a possibility that they may go down further, so it is recommended to divide the purchases and buy them in parts.It is.
住宅ローン金利が高いことは事実であるため安堵(あんど)の表情を浮かべることはできません。
Crude oil prices...
Translated
5
On November 22, 2024,which surged, are clearly being bought on expectations of interest rate cuts.the price is the closing price2712.20 dollarsIt is.
which surged, are clearly being bought on expectations of interest rate cuts.The price has been rising for five consecutive days from November 18th to 19th, 20th, 21st, and 22nd.
When the gold price rises, it is often during times of strong inflation concerns.Crude oilandCopperThe copper price is not rising.
The rise in the price of gold is evidence that the futures market has determined that there is no more growth potential in stock prices, and is once again buying gold.
Rate cutIf てしばあうと， inflation will accelerate, which will dampen consumer purchasing desire. Economic growth cannot be expected.
US 10-year bond yieldsIt is in the 4.4% range. It is high.
rising in contrast to the policy interest rate. Even if prices falllong-term interest rates Inflation is somewhat restrained because wages do not decrease.
Gold pricesJust because prices have risen does not mean that inflation will reignite immediately.
The Russia-Ukraine conflictis intensifying. This is also a factor contributing to the increase in gold prices.
As the United States is providing weapons to Ukraine, if the conflict escalates, the U.S. will issue bonds to fund defense expenses.
This will decrease the credibility of the dollar.
Looking back, it resembles the prolonged period of the Vietnam War.
President Trump, who won the election this time, has a strong inclination towards diplomacy with Russia, soGold prices...
which surged, are clearly being bought on expectations of interest rate cuts.The price has been rising for five consecutive days from November 18th to 19th, 20th, 21st, and 22nd.
When the gold price rises, it is often during times of strong inflation concerns.Crude oilandCopperThe copper price is not rising.
The rise in the price of gold is evidence that the futures market has determined that there is no more growth potential in stock prices, and is once again buying gold.
Rate cutIf てしばあうと， inflation will accelerate, which will dampen consumer purchasing desire. Economic growth cannot be expected.
US 10-year bond yieldsIt is in the 4.4% range. It is high.
rising in contrast to the policy interest rate. Even if prices falllong-term interest rates Inflation is somewhat restrained because wages do not decrease.
Gold pricesJust because prices have risen does not mean that inflation will reignite immediately.
The Russia-Ukraine conflictis intensifying. This is also a factor contributing to the increase in gold prices.
As the United States is providing weapons to Ukraine, if the conflict escalates, the U.S. will issue bonds to fund defense expenses.
This will decrease the credibility of the dollar.
Looking back, it resembles the prolonged period of the Vietnam War.
President Trump, who won the election this time, has a strong inclination towards diplomacy with Russia, soGold prices...
Translated
15
The USA was announced on November 13, 2024 at 22:30.CPI (year-on-year)Result compared to the previous month's 2.4%.2.6%was.
This is a factor for the stock market decline.Stock market declineIs a factor.
Rate cutBecause it will cause harm.
Announced simultaneously,Core CPI (year-on-year)result against 3.3% from the previous month3.3%It was.
Both are data from last month, October.
Consumer Price Indexhas halted the 6-month consecutive declinetriggered a resurgence in inflationElicited reminiscences.
Turned to rise in last month's announcement.Core CPIIs remaining flat.
is in a sideways trend.Rate cutIt is also important to be carrying out.
Originally, rekindling of inflation is a negative point and a factor for stock market decline, butCore CPIremains flat, making it difficult to determine.
In a situation where inflation calming down is hoped.Consumer Price IndexThe rise in CPI is a factor causing a stock market decline.
The market Interest rate cutKnow that it is being cutlong-term interest rates はrising contrary to the policy interest rates It is rising in contrast.
The stock market may tolerate inflation.Stock price increaseThere is also a pattern that will become.
Even if inflation acceleratesResidential marketandCCIIf gold rises, the stock price willriseI will do.
The USD/JPY exchange rate is yen depreciationThe USD is strong.Swinging. While in a rate cut phase, the dollar is being bought.
Federal ReserveWithout fearing inflationRate cutTo determine...
This is a factor for the stock market decline.Stock market declineIs a factor.
Rate cutBecause it will cause harm.
Announced simultaneously,Core CPI (year-on-year)result against 3.3% from the previous month3.3%It was.
Both are data from last month, October.
Consumer Price Indexhas halted the 6-month consecutive declinetriggered a resurgence in inflationElicited reminiscences.
Turned to rise in last month's announcement.Core CPIIs remaining flat.
is in a sideways trend.Rate cutIt is also important to be carrying out.
Originally, rekindling of inflation is a negative point and a factor for stock market decline, butCore CPIremains flat, making it difficult to determine.
In a situation where inflation calming down is hoped.Consumer Price IndexThe rise in CPI is a factor causing a stock market decline.
The market Interest rate cutKnow that it is being cutlong-term interest rates はrising contrary to the policy interest rates It is rising in contrast.
The stock market may tolerate inflation.Stock price increaseThere is also a pattern that will become.
Even if inflation acceleratesResidential marketandCCIIf gold rises, the stock price willriseI will do.
The USD/JPY exchange rate is yen depreciationThe USD is strong.Swinging. While in a rate cut phase, the dollar is being bought.
Federal ReserveWithout fearing inflationRate cutTo determine...
Translated
16
Announced on November 8, 2024 at 4:00.US policy interest rateResults compared to the previous upper limit of 5.0%Upper limit of 4.75%.
It is unfolding as expected by the market.
At the present time, Stocks riseThis is the reason.
Announced at 0:00 on November 9, 2024, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indexthe result was compared to 70.5 last month 73.0was.
Showing the same consumer purchasing desireCCIdue to the rise, consumer spending in the USA is likely to become more active.
U.S. 10-year bond yields fell to 4.277%. The decline in long-term interest rates is a factor for stock market highs.Rebounding from 3.648% on September 17th to 11.8% by November 8th.4.305%It has risen to
lowering interest rates Despite this, the bond market is selling long-term bonds.
The bond marketRate cutresulting in high pricesRate cutis expected to be unable to be done.
We believe that the movement of this bond market itselfInflation stabilizationcontributes to
Policy interest rateEven if interest rates are cut,Long-term interest ratesIt becomes the exquisite height of interest rates that inflation can be slowly subdued by not decreasing.
Taking advantage of becoming inflation, restraining the market.unemployment ratewithout raisingSoft landing.there is a possibility of leading to
This is a positive perspective, Negativeit is certain that there are parts that are
It is unfolding as expected by the market.
At the present time, Stocks riseThis is the reason.
Announced at 0:00 on November 9, 2024, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indexthe result was compared to 70.5 last month 73.0was.
Showing the same consumer purchasing desireCCIdue to the rise, consumer spending in the USA is likely to become more active.
U.S. 10-year bond yields fell to 4.277%. The decline in long-term interest rates is a factor for stock market highs.Rebounding from 3.648% on September 17th to 11.8% by November 8th.4.305%It has risen to
lowering interest rates Despite this, the bond market is selling long-term bonds.
The bond marketRate cutresulting in high pricesRate cutis expected to be unable to be done.
We believe that the movement of this bond market itselfInflation stabilizationcontributes to
Policy interest rateEven if interest rates are cut,Long-term interest ratesIt becomes the exquisite height of interest rates that inflation can be slowly subdued by not decreasing.
Taking advantage of becoming inflation, restraining the market.unemployment ratewithout raisingSoft landing.there is a possibility of leading to
This is a positive perspective, Negativeit is certain that there are parts that are
Translated
8
Announced on October 29, 2024 at 23:00CCI(Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index) compared to the previous month's 99.2108.7It was.
This is short-termStock priceIt will be a factor, but the increase is limited. The reason is that inflation is accelerating.Rate cutIt becomes a barrier for inflation.
As inflation acceleratesunemployment rateIf in a situation where inflation does not rise, gold will shine even more.
Announced at 22:00 on the same day,Case Show residence prices in 20 cities (year-on-year)Is the result compared to the previous month's 5.93%5.2%It was.
It is a decrease for the fifth consecutive month.
This is the data for August.
Residence prices are definitely declining.Inflation stabilizationis approaching.
CCIannounced at the same timeJOLTS job openingsresulted in 7.443 million people compared to 7.861 million people in the previous month7.443 million peopleIt was.
This is data for September.
It is steadily decreasing.JOLTS job openingsIt has settled down to a level equivalent to the good economic conditions before the Corona outbreak.
Even if the number of job postings is the same, the inflation rate is completely different. The United States is still in a battle with inflation.
Announced on October 30, 2024 at 21:15.the ADP employment change (month-on-month) wasLast month, it was 0.159 million...
This is short-termStock priceIt will be a factor, but the increase is limited. The reason is that inflation is accelerating.Rate cutIt becomes a barrier for inflation.
As inflation acceleratesunemployment rateIf in a situation where inflation does not rise, gold will shine even more.
Announced at 22:00 on the same day,Case Show residence prices in 20 cities (year-on-year)Is the result compared to the previous month's 5.93%5.2%It was.
It is a decrease for the fifth consecutive month.
This is the data for August.
Residence prices are definitely declining.Inflation stabilizationis approaching.
CCIannounced at the same timeJOLTS job openingsresulted in 7.443 million people compared to 7.861 million people in the previous month7.443 million peopleIt was.
This is data for September.
It is steadily decreasing.JOLTS job openingsIt has settled down to a level equivalent to the good economic conditions before the Corona outbreak.
Even if the number of job postings is the same, the inflation rate is completely different. The United States is still in a battle with inflation.
Announced on October 30, 2024 at 21:15.the ADP employment change (month-on-month) wasLast month, it was 0.159 million...
Translated
8
The announcement was made in the USA on October 24, 2024 at 23:00Number of new residential construction salesResults compared to the previous month's 0.709 million units0.738 million unitsIt was.
This is for futureStocks are rising.This is the factor.
The sale of residences leads toCPI・Core CPIboth numbers rise together, so,lowering interest rates It will be a hindrance.
The sale of residences will resolve the housing shortage.Fall in rentwill lead to
If the rent decreasesinterest ratesWill further decrease.
interest rateswill decreaseunemployment rateIf it is lowStocks are rising.Will occur.
Announced at 23:00 on October 23rd.Number of used residence sales.Result compared to the previous month's 3.88 million cases.3.84 million households.It was.
The decline in the housing market contributes to inflation moderation, but in the future,High interest rates create a stagnation phase,to stage,stock market declineThis is the factor.
Number of used residence sales.has decreased for two consecutive months.
Number of new residential construction salesExceeding 0.7 million units, sales are recovering to the same level as before in a low interest rate environment.
Number of used residence sales.Considering around 5 million units before the Corona period, it can be said that it has greatly decreased to the latter half of 3 million units.
Although the high interest rates and the soaring prices of pre-owned properties are stabilizing, consumers still feel that they are relatively high.
Residential purchases are soaring.Residence insuranceThe payments also overlap, so a comprehensive calculation...
This is for futureStocks are rising.This is the factor.
The sale of residences leads toCPI・Core CPIboth numbers rise together, so,lowering interest rates It will be a hindrance.
The sale of residences will resolve the housing shortage.Fall in rentwill lead to
If the rent decreasesinterest ratesWill further decrease.
interest rateswill decreaseunemployment rateIf it is lowStocks are rising.Will occur.
Announced at 23:00 on October 23rd.Number of used residence sales.Result compared to the previous month's 3.88 million cases.3.84 million households.It was.
The decline in the housing market contributes to inflation moderation, but in the future,High interest rates create a stagnation phase,to stage,stock market declineThis is the factor.
Number of used residence sales.has decreased for two consecutive months.
Number of new residential construction salesExceeding 0.7 million units, sales are recovering to the same level as before in a low interest rate environment.
Number of used residence sales.Considering around 5 million units before the Corona period, it can be said that it has greatly decreased to the latter half of 3 million units.
Although the high interest rates and the soaring prices of pre-owned properties are stabilizing, consumers still feel that they are relatively high.
Residential purchases are soaring.Residence insuranceThe payments also overlap, so a comprehensive calculation...
Translated
12
住宅株であるPHWは2022年11月10日43.78ドルから上昇トレンドを形成しています。現在値は149.04ドルで新高値更新を継続しています。
エネルギー株であるVSTHad been bearish since the end of May 2024, but rebounded and reached a new high on September 11, 2024. Starting from October 7th.Crawling sidewaysbut now,
As a leader in AI stocks,NVDAturned bearish and entered a trading range from June 20, 2024. It converted to bullish on October 3, 2024, butThere is strong resistance to higher prices.It is a development.
It is a information management stock.IRMis maintaining unmatched strength. Bullish reversal since June 6, 2024. Forming an uptrend.New record high updateContinuing.
Manufacturer of transportation equipmentWABAfter May 21, 2024, the resistance became heavy and ranged sideways, but turned bullish from September 12.New record high updatecontinues.
Investment companyKKRKKR had been bearish since November 4, 2021, but has been bullish since November 2, 2023, maintaining an upward trend. There was a bearish moment from the end of July 2024, but buying interest entered from September 12.New record high updateis doing.
Truck manufacturer...
エネルギー株であるVSTHad been bearish since the end of May 2024, but rebounded and reached a new high on September 11, 2024. Starting from October 7th.Crawling sidewaysbut now,
As a leader in AI stocks,NVDAturned bearish and entered a trading range from June 20, 2024. It converted to bullish on October 3, 2024, butThere is strong resistance to higher prices.It is a development.
It is a information management stock.IRMis maintaining unmatched strength. Bullish reversal since June 6, 2024. Forming an uptrend.New record high updateContinuing.
Manufacturer of transportation equipmentWABAfter May 21, 2024, the resistance became heavy and ranged sideways, but turned bullish from September 12.New record high updatecontinues.
Investment companyKKRKKR had been bearish since November 4, 2021, but has been bullish since November 2, 2023, maintaining an upward trend. There was a bearish moment from the end of July 2024, but buying interest entered from September 12.New record high updateis doing.
Truck manufacturer...
Translated
24
1
Announced on October 16, 2024 at 15:00.United Kingdom CPI (year-on-year).resulted in 2.2% compared to the previous month.1.7%It was.
United Kingdom unemployment rateHas fallen for the third consecutive month.
United Kingdom policy interest rateis 5.00%.
United Kingdom'sCore CPI (year-on-year)is3.2%Maintaining a downward trend despite being somewhat high.
If the United Kingdom successfully calms inflation and lowers interest rates, there is a risk of reigniting inflation compared to the United States and surrounding countries.Interest rate differentialsIt is not easy tolowering interest rates due to the risk of reigniting inflation.
Even if inflation in the United Kingdom weakens, there is a need to cautiously lower interest rates.
This is a tailwind for the United States, which is suffering from inflation.
Even if the world is moving towards inflation stabilization, ultimately the United States needs to lower interest rates, otherwise proactive interest rate cuts cannot be implemented.
Even if interest rates are lowered ahead of the United States, it would become a factor for a stronger dollar for the United States.Inflation calming downContributes to.
United Kingdom unemployment rateHas fallen for the third consecutive month.
United Kingdom policy interest rateis 5.00%.
United Kingdom'sCore CPI (year-on-year)is3.2%Maintaining a downward trend despite being somewhat high.
If the United Kingdom successfully calms inflation and lowers interest rates, there is a risk of reigniting inflation compared to the United States and surrounding countries.Interest rate differentialsIt is not easy tolowering interest rates due to the risk of reigniting inflation.
Even if inflation in the United Kingdom weakens, there is a need to cautiously lower interest rates.
This is a tailwind for the United States, which is suffering from inflation.
Even if the world is moving towards inflation stabilization, ultimately the United States needs to lower interest rates, otherwise proactive interest rate cuts cannot be implemented.
Even if interest rates are lowered ahead of the United States, it would become a factor for a stronger dollar for the United States.Inflation calming downContributes to.
Translated
7
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