① Project Overview
SoftBank Group, OpenAI, and Oracle Corp led AI joint venture.
Initial investment amount 2
100 billion dollars (approximately 15,560 billion yen).
Future investment amount 3
Expanding to 500 billion dollars (approximately 78 trillion yen) in the future.
Creation of employment.
Approximately 0.1 million people.
Role of leading companies.
SoftBank Group: Fundraising, strategic leadership.
OpenAI: Development and provision of AI technology.
Oracle Corp: Infrastructure construction and cloud service support.
6. Objectives and Significance
Expansion of AI technology development and application.
Construction of the next-generation AI ecosystem.
Supporting the growth of the USA economy.
Challenges and concerns
Fundraising: Concerns about massive investments compared to SoftBank G's cash and cash equivalents (3 trillion 800 billion yen).
Competitive environment: Intensification of AI technology competition with other countries and companies.
Political influence: Consideration of political risks as a project led by President Trump.
【Educational Perspective】
"Stargate" may herald a new era of AI technology, but challenges such as funding uncertainties and lack of clear applications are swirling concerns in my mind.
Emphasizing AI ethics and sustainability may create a competitive advantage in the business environment.

Benefits
• A decrease in Energy prices is expected.
• The competitiveness of domestic industries will improve.
• Border control will be strengthened to address illegal immigration.
• There is a possibility that policy implementation will proceed smoothly.
Demerits
• Measures against climate change will be pushed back.
• Concerns about rising prices of imported goods due to trade friction.
• Risks of destabilization in diplomatic relations.
• Potential deepening of international isolation.
【Perspective on Education 👀】
Mr. Trump’s re-election emphasizes a policy of prioritizing the country, aiming for the expansion of Energy production and the protection of domestic industries, while raising concerns about a retreat from climate change measures and international isolation. (Global warming phenomenon)
Tariff policies may support domestic employment in the short term, but they also carry the risks of intensifying trade friction and rising prices.
The Republican-controlled Congress supports policy implementation, but careful consideration is necessary regarding its impact on foreign relations and the global environment.

The expectation for a rate cut is dominant.
A rate cut is expected once this year in the SOFR-linked options market.
The probability of a second rate cut is approximately 50%.
Speculation about interest rate hikes has emerged.
Bond traders have factored in a 25% possibility of interest rate hikes.
View that the policies of the Trump administration will reignite inflation.
Major economic indicators
Employment statistics released on January 10: Strong, supporting rate hike expectations.
CPI released on January 15: Mild content strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts.
The influence of the Trump administration.
Tariffs and immigration restrictions are putting upward pressure on prices.
The re-increase in wages suggests the possibility of accelerating inflation.
Expert opinions
Mr. Phil Satoru: Expects a rate hike in September 2025.
There are also voices suggesting a halt to rate cuts.
Market trends
US bond yields fell after CPI.
Situation where expectations of rate cuts and rate hikes are in conflict
【Educational Perspective】
The market considers one interest rate cut as the main scenario for the end of the year, with a probability of about 50% for a second rate cut.
On the other hand, concerns about inflation reigniting due to the Trump administration's tariffs and immigration restrictions have led to a 25% possibility of interest rate hikes.
The strength of employment statistics supports observations of interest rate hikes, while the mild results of the CPI strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts.
In the bond market, opinions are divided...

Support for Additional Interest Rate Cuts
Policy to gradually ease the restrictive economic measures. Recent economic data supports this decision.
Sharp rise in UK bond yields.
Global factors (US bond and European bond trends) are reflected. The market movement is evaluated as "orderly".
Decline in the Pound.
The decline is due to concerns about the fiscal outlook.
However, the market reaction is considered a natural movement.
A passive attitude towards market intervention.
There is a possibility that market intervention, such as that during the past Trus administration, will not be carried out this time.
Future direction of monetary easing policy.
A plan to gradually phase out economic restraint measures.
Impact on the market.
Pound depreciation risk.
Pound selling pressure intensifies on speculation of rate cut.
UK bond yield
There is a possibility of continued yield reduction due to expectations of interest rate cuts.
Impact on the international bond market
Linked with trends in US and European bonds.
Points to watch for in the future
Will the Bank of England decide on an additional interest rate cut at the next meeting?
Will the market's concerns about the fiscal outlook persist?
To what extent will the exchange rate of the Pound and the UK Bond market stabilize?
[Summary]
The additional rate cut by the Bank of England is reasonable as an economic support measure, but there is an increasing risk of a weaker Pound and lower UK bond yields. The reluctance towards market intervention provides some sense of relief, but to dispel fiscal concerns...

1. Slowdown in rate cuts
The FOMC has adopted a policy of gradually slowing the pace of rate cuts. It recognizes the need for a cautious approach.
2. Inflation Risks
Many participants emphasize the risk of rising inflation. There is a possibility that the progression of inflation will become a condition for further interest rate cuts.
③ Economic Outlook Economic growth forecasts have been slightly revised downward. The labor market is strong, consumption is robust, and inflation remains high.
④ Division in policy determination
Some argue for keeping interest rates unchanged. It is expected to implement two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025.
　
⑤ Labor Market
While a solid maintenance of the labor market is expected, indicators should be carefully monitored. Pay attention to the December employment statistics.
Risk of the Trump administration
Potential impact on economic forecasts of policy changes by the new administration (tariffs, immigration, etc.)
Impact of the dollar
Short-term supported easily but medium-term volatility risk due to the uncertainty of the Trump administration.
Impact on Assets
Stocks: Negative for interest rate sensitive stocks.
Bond: Pressure from rising yields.
Gold Energy: Possibility of inflation risks pushing prices up.
Important Data: January 10 employment statistics are a key indicator that will influence policy outlook.
【Educational Perspective】
The FOMC is slowing down the pace of rate cuts...

November job openings
8.09 million 8000 vacancies (highest level in 6 months)
Previous month: 7.83 million 9000 cases (revised)
Above economist's Financial Estimates: Exceeding 7.74 million cases
Factors contributing to the increase in job vacancies
Specialized and Business Services, Financial and Insurance are the main reasons
Professional and business services at the highest level in two years.
Decrease in job openings in lodging, food services, and manufacturing.
Labor market situation.
Job openings per unemployed person: 1.1 job (pre-COVID level)
Resignation rate: 1.9% (lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic)
Employment rate: lowest level since April 2020
Number of layoffs: stagnant at a low level
Impact on the macro economy.
Increase in job openings suggests the solidness of the labor market.
Outlook for additional interest rate cuts recedes as inflationary pressure continues.
Improvements in the labor market may affect policy interest rates.
Concerns
Polarization between industries (Strong: Business Services, Weak: Lodging, Manufacturing)
Reliability issues due to decreased response rate in JOLTS survey
Conclusion
There are signs of improvement in the labor market, but industry-specific imbalances are a challenge.
There is a possibility of influencing the FRB's monetary policy, and it is necessary to closely monitor the trends.
【Educational Perspective】
In November, US job openings reached a high level of 8.09 million, the highest level in 6 months...

✔️ Statement by President Trump
Announced to maintain a flat 10% to 20% tariff on all imported goods.
Denying the WP report (considering limiting to key imported goods).
✔️News content on WP
Discussions are underway to limit the tariff targets to "important import items".
Candidate targets: Iron & Steel, Defense-related, Medical Supplies, Energy-related (Batteries, Rare Earths, Solar Panels).
Market reaction ✔️
Dollar Index: Temporarily down 1% after WP report, decrease in decline due to Trump's remarks.
Yen: Falling against the dollar again.
Euro: the upward momentum against the dollar is narrowing.

✔️Impact on monetary policy
If the range of tariffs narrows, the pressure of price increase weakens, making it easier for the US monetary authorities to proceed with interest rate cuts.
Key tariff targets
Iron & Steel, Aluminum, Defense Industry, Essential Medical Supplies, Battery, Rare Earths, Solar Panels.
Key points to watch for in the future
Announcement of actual tariffs and range of coverage.
Trends in US monetary policy (expectations of rate cuts).
Impact on the foreign exchange market and commodity market.
【Educational Perspective】
While President Trump's tariff policy maintains a protectionist stance based on election promises, the impact of the Washington Post's 'limited proposal for important imports' cannot be ignored. Especially in relation to Iron & Steel and Energy...

Yen exchange rate forecast
Prediction of the Yen's rally for the first time in 5 years.
Factors include weak US dollar and BOJ interest rate hike.
Trump administration policies have impacts on both the strong and weak dollar sides.
Foreign exchange intervention
Potential intervention in buying yen if the dollar/yen exceeds 161 yen.
Expected to fall below 140 yen by the end of the year.
The narrowing of the interest rate spread between Japan and the United States is promoting the appreciation of the yen.

Financial Estimates Range: 140-160 yen.
Spring labor negotiations are pushing for a Bank of Japan rate hike.
There is a possibility of approaching 160 yen in the short term.
There is a possibility of achieving a policy interest rate of 1% within the year.
【Educational Perspective】
Reason for the strengthening of the Japanese Yen.
Progress in Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.
Narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the USA.
Improvement in trading conditions (due to lower energy prices).
Reasons for the weakening of the Yen
Fiscal stimulus and tariff policies of the Trump administration.
Resilience of the US economy.
Increased demand for the dollar due to exchange rate volatility.
Impact on the Japanese economy
Shareholder returns and increased capital investments are appreciated, leading to a stronger yen and higher stock prices.
Cautious attitude continues in foreign bond investments.
In 2025, a gradual strengthening trend of the yen is expected, but there are multiple risks on the upside.
As factors contributing to the weakening of the US dollar, the US financial easing and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike are mentioned, but the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus and trade policies may actually support a stronger dollar.
The background behind the yen's rebound includes improvements in Japan's trade conditions and structural reforms...

✔️ Production Index
In November, the industrial production index was 101.7, a decrease of 2.3% compared to the previous month. It is the first negative in 3 months.
Mainly due to
The main reason is the downturn in the production machinery industry and the automobile industry.
Comparison with forecasts
Results exceeded private forecasts (-3.4% decline).
Trends by Global Sectors
Out of 15 industries, 11 experienced a decline, with a broad range of industries contracting.
Mixed assessment of the overall trend.
Maintain.
No signs of recovery.
Background factors
Slowdown in overseas demand (USA, Europe, China), sluggish domestic capital investment.
✔️ Market impact
Stock market
Downward pressure on Automobiles and Machinery related stocks.
Foreign Exchange Market
Concerns of economic downturn leading to a weak yen.
Points to Watch in the Future
The impact of the US-China economy.
Wage trends in spring labor negotiations.
Potential temporary production recovery due to year-end demand.
【Educational Perspective】
The industrial production index in November saw a negative trend for the first time in 3 months. Particularly, the production of industrial machinery and automobile industry underperformed, believed to be influenced by sluggish domestic and overseas demand.
Overall, out of 15 industries, 11 industries experienced a decline, highlighting a widespread weakness.
However, the results exceeded expectations, serving as a factor that somewhat restrained market pessimism.
On the other hand, as the basic judgment is considered "two steps forward, one step back", there are uncertainties in the production recovery...