akipi_
liked and commented on
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Selling bonds and buying stocks due to more rate cuts is no longer the trend; the onset of large-scale tariffs, concerns about future inflation, and massive fiscal stimulus have led to bonds being sold indiscriminately despite indicators prior to over a month of inauguration. There is no reason for such a significant drop in CPI indicators yesterday. Unless consecutive negative indicators beyond employment and sales arise, the market is likely to largely ignore and decline for the rest of the year. This is the state of affairs even before the inauguration. If substantial fiscal stimulus and tariff implementation occur after the inauguration, it is difficult to imagine anything other than further declines in bonds, even if they are somewhat factored in currently. Currently, stocks are gradually being invested in, and the promotion of cryptocurrencies is expected to accelerate the decline of US bonds. Some may have rough opinions that safe investments are in gold and BTC (very risky) now that inflation is weak and US bonds have the worst fiscal outlook, except when it comes to redeeming. This is a highly risky investment with high volatility. As bonds form the foundation, ideas like being oversold in bond ETFs and ready to rise soon are not relevant in my opinion...
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$Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI.US)$ Before the rate cut began, I bought the index with a full position, and other observations were generally as expected. $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ is falling, $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ Also declined. It is a very short-sighted idea that bonds will start to rise because rate cuts begin, and the semiconductor sector is facing headwinds, including national policies, except for some outstanding stocks like NVIDIA. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ In other words, even if you purchase sector ETFs, it does not match the risk (if you compare the charts, you will see that there are no advantages at all). When NVIDIA, which is leading the pack, falls, there is a high probability that other stocks will fall even more.
Above all, in the midst of such a sharp increase in short-term interest rates...
Above all, in the midst of such a sharp increase in short-term interest rates...
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Share the stocks you are focusing on in the comments section and let's exchange opinions on the next buying opportunity!![]()
Welcome moomoo users to the USA stock papertrade contest! The USA stock papertrade contest lasts for 1 week!Last chanceto seize it!![]()
先週、皆様の注目は米国大統領選挙に集まっていたことでしょう。2024年米大統領選でトランプ氏が勝利したことを受け、「トランプ・トレードThe short selling is increasing. After Mr. Trump's victory, Tesla's stock price rose by as much as 15% from the opening of the U.S. market. This seems to be a huge victory for Mr. Musk, who bet on Mr. Trump. Everyonemay have shown off their skills in papertrading, riding the tailwind of the U.S. presidential election.Perhaps it was because of that.
先週も輝かしい成果を挙げた一週間でした。日本地域は、プラスの収益を出したユーザーの方の割合の高さ（プラス収益率）で再び首位になりました。Congratulations, everyone! Let's maintain this momentum even in the final week and defend our number one position!
【先週のランキング】
Let me introduce the top 10 trading stocks from last week! Some of you may also have thesetop 10 stocks...
Welcome moomoo users to the USA stock papertrade contest! The USA stock papertrade contest lasts for 1 week!Last chanceto seize it!
先週、皆様の注目は米国大統領選挙に集まっていたことでしょう。2024年米大統領選でトランプ氏が勝利したことを受け、「トランプ・トレードThe short selling is increasing. After Mr. Trump's victory, Tesla's stock price rose by as much as 15% from the opening of the U.S. market. This seems to be a huge victory for Mr. Musk, who bet on Mr. Trump. Everyonemay have shown off their skills in papertrading, riding the tailwind of the U.S. presidential election.Perhaps it was because of that.
先週も輝かしい成果を挙げた一週間でした。日本地域は、プラスの収益を出したユーザーの方の割合の高さ（プラス収益率）で再び首位になりました。Congratulations, everyone! Let's maintain this momentum even in the final week and defend our number one position!
【先週のランキング】
Let me introduce the top 10 trading stocks from last week! Some of you may also have thesetop 10 stocks...
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"Trump 2.0 market"hasbegunOn November 6, when Mr. Trump won the U.S. presidential election, the U.S. marketRisk-onhas occurred. Mr. Trump's promises oftax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs are expected to boost the economic growth and corporate profits in the USA, and it is expected thatstock prices and the US dollarhave been rising. The launch of the Trump 2.0 administration will be in January next year, and it will be necessary to monitor the degree of implementation of the promises, but for now, the expectations for policy continuation seem likely.
After confirming the situation on the first day of the "Trump 2.0 market"while considering Mr. Trump's promised policiesPick out "crying stocks and laughing stocks"picked.
![]()
First day of the "Trump 2.0 market" (November 6): Risk-on
Movement incorporating President Trump's pledges of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and immigration policies
⇒Trump's policies have the potential to stimulate economic growth, corporate profits, and inflation simultaneously
●Stocks rise
Tax cuts are positive for economic growth and corporate profits.
◇Dow Inc.: Up 3.6%
◇S&P500: Up 2.5%
◇Nasdaq 100: Rose 2.7%
◇Russell 2000: Rose 5.8%
●Rising interest rates, stronger dollar
Tax cuts spur economic growth, leading to fiscal deficit expansion, while tariff hikes contribute to inflationary pressure....
After confirming the situation on the first day of the "Trump 2.0 market"while considering Mr. Trump's promised policiesPick out "crying stocks and laughing stocks"picked.
Movement incorporating President Trump's pledges of tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, and immigration policies
⇒Trump's policies have the potential to stimulate economic growth, corporate profits, and inflation simultaneously
●Stocks rise
Tax cuts are positive for economic growth and corporate profits.
◇Dow Inc.: Up 3.6%
◇S&P500: Up 2.5%
◇Nasdaq 100: Rose 2.7%
◇Russell 2000: Rose 5.8%
●Rising interest rates, stronger dollar
Tax cuts spur economic growth, leading to fiscal deficit expansion, while tariff hikes contribute to inflationary pressure....
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
※In this corner, we will conduct a comprehensive analysis by performing a multifaceted technical evaluation. In addition, the evaluation will be done on a scale of '5 (buy) to 1 (sell).'
USA midterm/long-term bond auction results
- 10-year long-term government bond auction: Result 4.066% previous 3.648%
- 20-year long-term government bond auction: Result 4.590% previous 4.039%
- 30-year long-term government bond auction: Result 4.389% previous 4.015%
-> Due to lackluster bidding, yields are rising back to levels seen in May to July.
Technical analysis (Comprehensive rating: 1.5/5)
Points
Regarding candlestick charts, a doji formed on 10/25 leading to a decline. The previous week's decline formed a "Classic AB=CD pattern," causing a drop to around 47. Although it seems to have hit a bottom, will the decline continue?
The fluctuations in the USA 10-year treasury bond yields will continue to be the key. Also, who will be the USA President...
※In this corner, we will conduct a comprehensive analysis by performing a multifaceted technical evaluation. In addition, the evaluation will be done on a scale of '5 (buy) to 1 (sell).'
USA midterm/long-term bond auction results
- 10-year long-term government bond auction: Result 4.066% previous 3.648%
- 20-year long-term government bond auction: Result 4.590% previous 4.039%
- 30-year long-term government bond auction: Result 4.389% previous 4.015%
-> Due to lackluster bidding, yields are rising back to levels seen in May to July.
Technical analysis (Comprehensive rating: 1.5/5)
Points
Regarding candlestick charts, a doji formed on 10/25 leading to a decline. The previous week's decline formed a "Classic AB=CD pattern," causing a drop to around 47. Although it seems to have hit a bottom, will the decline continue?
The fluctuations in the USA 10-year treasury bond yields will continue to be the key. Also, who will be the USA President...
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
After watching Mr. Zakioka's video, I finally understood the movement of today's and yesterday's gold interest rates. The long-term FF rate estimate has increased by 0.1% compared to the previous estimate. It has also increased by 0.1% compared to the estimate before the previous one. In other words, the FRB considers the neutral interest rate to be gradually increasing. Therefore, the long-term interest rates rose today and yesterday.
I saw it in a newspaper article just after Jackson Hole, but I recall a hawkish committee member saying, "The neutral interest rate is 3%." This might happen at the December FOMC.
However, I think this assumption by the FRB is based on no landing or a soft landing. The FRB anticipates the unemployment rate to remain in the 4% range. If the unemployment rate exceeds this level, the expected slowdown in potential growth rate and the anticipation of an increase in the neutral interest rate will collapse. Also... to be honest, I feel that the FRB's forward guidance is somewhat contradictory. This applies not only to the discussion on the unemployment rate mentioned earlier, but to other aspects as well. I'll write about it when I think of it. (Feeling tired for some reason)
After watching Mr. Zakioka's video, I finally understood the movement of today's and yesterday's gold interest rates. The long-term FF rate estimate has increased by 0.1% compared to the previous estimate. It has also increased by 0.1% compared to the estimate before the previous one. In other words, the FRB considers the neutral interest rate to be gradually increasing. Therefore, the long-term interest rates rose today and yesterday.
I saw it in a newspaper article just after Jackson Hole, but I recall a hawkish committee member saying, "The neutral interest rate is 3%." This might happen at the December FOMC.
However, I think this assumption by the FRB is based on no landing or a soft landing. The FRB anticipates the unemployment rate to remain in the 4% range. If the unemployment rate exceeds this level, the expected slowdown in potential growth rate and the anticipation of an increase in the neutral interest rate will collapse. Also... to be honest, I feel that the FRB's forward guidance is somewhat contradictory. This applies not only to the discussion on the unemployment rate mentioned earlier, but to other aspects as well. I'll write about it when I think of it. (Feeling tired for some reason)
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The policy is always all over the place, but I've decided to focus on this at least for the rest of the year!
1️⃣TMF 2️⃣ASTS 3️⃣ARM
For 1️⃣, after the interest rate cut is completed, I will hold it until it falls and then sell it.
I'm wondering which one to focus on, 2️⃣ or 3️⃣.
•ASTS's theme is communication satellites in space 🚀 Please check it out for more details. 😁
•ARM also has the potential to lead the semiconductor industry. ✨
I want to invest in both at least 1 million yen units 😂
1️⃣TMF 2️⃣ASTS 3️⃣ARM
For 1️⃣, after the interest rate cut is completed, I will hold it until it falls and then sell it.
I'm wondering which one to focus on, 2️⃣ or 3️⃣.
•ASTS's theme is communication satellites in space 🚀 Please check it out for more details. 😁
•ARM also has the potential to lead the semiconductor industry. ✨
I want to invest in both at least 1 million yen units 😂
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$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures(DEC4) (NK225main.JP)$ $USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(DEC4) (NQmain.US)$
*Top 5 in the following approval ratings
Lineup of rumored candidates for the presidential election
(Support rate based on a public opinion poll on "Suitable person for the next LDP president" by Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd)
<Candidates who have declared their candidacy>
Taro Kono, Minister for Digital (7%)
Takahiro Kobayashi, former Minister in charge of Economic Security (8%)
Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (18%)
<Candidate prospects (based on reports)>
Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of the Environment (23%)
Hosoda Yoshihide, Chief Cabinet Secretary (2%)
Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)
<Expressed willingness to run (based on reports)>
Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Saito Ken (1%)
Minister in charge of Economic Security and Security Koichi Sanae (11%)
Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu (1%)
Foreign Minister Akiko Joãn (6%)
Former LDP Secretary-General Seiko Noda (1%)
*Top 5 in the following approval ratings
Lineup of rumored candidates for the presidential election
(Support rate based on a public opinion poll on "Suitable person for the next LDP president" by Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd)
<Candidates who have declared their candidacy>
Taro Kono, Minister for Digital (7%)
Takahiro Kobayashi, former Minister in charge of Economic Security (8%)
Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (18%)
<Candidate prospects (based on reports)>
Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of the Environment (23%)
Hosoda Yoshihide, Chief Cabinet Secretary (2%)
Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)
<Expressed willingness to run (based on reports)>
Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Saito Ken (1%)
Minister in charge of Economic Security and Security Koichi Sanae (11%)
Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu (1%)
Foreign Minister Akiko Joãn (6%)
Former LDP Secretary-General Seiko Noda (1%)
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$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ If Japanese salaries rise, Japanese people buy Japanese stocks, and Japanese interest rates gradually catch up with the US, will it become a stable market that is not overly influenced by the US?
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$Apple (AAPL.US)$isAugust 1stAfter the close of tradingThe financial results for the April-June quarter of 2024are scheduled to be announced. It is expected that the significant decline in sales of the main product, the iPhone, compared to the same period last year will be greatly improved, and as a result,there is a forecast for a return to increased revenue.It is.
一方で、アップルの株価は7月15日に史上最高値の234.4ドル（終値）を記録した後、ハイテク大手株全体に見られる弱さを受けて反落していました。今期の決算結果を受けて株価がどのように反応するか、注目されています。
決算発表後の翌取引日にアップル株の終値がどのようになるのかを予想して、投票してください。
【Compensation】
・10,000ポイントを均等に分配
Until 10 p.m. on August 2nd (Japan time)To, Apple's closing price on August 2nd (5 a.m. Japan time on August 3rd)Please choose the price range you expect. If the actual closing price falls within the chosen price range, points will be distributed equally to the users who voted for that price range (for example, if 50 people correctly predict the price range, each person can earn 100 points!).
【...
一方で、アップルの株価は7月15日に史上最高値の234.4ドル（終値）を記録した後、ハイテク大手株全体に見られる弱さを受けて反落していました。今期の決算結果を受けて株価がどのように反応するか、注目されています。
決算発表後の翌取引日にアップル株の終値がどのようになるのかを予想して、投票してください。
【Compensation】
・10,000ポイントを均等に分配
Until 10 p.m. on August 2nd (Japan time)To, Apple's closing price on August 2nd (5 a.m. Japan time on August 3rd)Please choose the price range you expect. If the actual closing price falls within the chosen price range, points will be distributed equally to the users who voted for that price range (for example, if 50 people correctly predict the price range, each person can earn 100 points!).
【...
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akipi_ : I was moved by the articulation of the reasons why I shouldn't get involved with TMF I'm thinking about now.
With Trump's fiscal stimulus, a tsunami of debt is coming.
If there is a large amount of debt issuance to crush demand, interest rates will rise.
It's a simple story, isn't it?