When you actually trade,Supply and demandHow much importance do you place on it?
As the title says spoiler.If you talk about market prices based only on supply and demand, you'll die. However,Investors who don't look at supply and demand or disdain them also can't winIt is a characteristic.
In short, it's justSupply and demand are secondary, but it is necessary to look at the market price after having that information and knowledgeIt's also an indescribable opponent.
Let's take a look at the specifics.
Is it the Nikkei averageThe supply and demand for Japanese stocks is very bad nowIt is.
after all,Remaining credit buybacks are 5 trillion yenApproaching the level for the first time in 17 years.The most common situation in the past 20 yearsThat's it. Credit purchases basically have to be settled in a maximum of 6 months,Overstock is a sales factor in the near futureIt is.
This is the largest scale in the last 20 years, and it is clearly very common because the level of the Nikkei Average has reached 40,000 yen and the level of the stock price itself is high.
As of last week in total for 2 cities4,911.7 billion yen. Unbought or unsold6.45 times even with a credit ratioThere are also, so no matter how high the Nikkei average level is, there are abnormally many unbought items.
furtherInstitutional investors' arbitrage balance is also at the 2.4 trillion yen levelSo, this is also very much when it exceeds 2 trillion yen. Even if this takes stock price levels into account, 2.5 trillion yen...

Many people, myself included“If the yen depreciates, the Nikkei Average will rise,” “at least it won't fall,” “large export stocks will rise.”I think that's the perception.
But here tooI need a mindset changeI would like to confirm the story that we are in such a situation... while looking at the chart.
This is a chart of the correlation coefficient between Nikkei futures and the dollar and yen.
As the name suggests, the correlation coefficientThe state of correlation between the twoIt represents,1.0 is the max and 1.0 is fully correlated. -1.0 for perfect inverse correlation, and 0 for no correlationIt will be.
Perfect correlation means that if A goes up, B always goes up, or if A goes down, all B also goes down.
Whether the stock price rises or falls, if both sides move in the same direction, the correlation coefficient will be positive, so it's easy to get confused when stock prices are falling.
On the other hand, when the correlation coefficient is negative, it is called inverse correlation, and if A goes up, B goes down, and if A goes down, B goes up... it's the exact opposite of both.
Also, 0 (zero): The yellow dotted line shows “no correlation,” although the image is a bit more confusing.
As the name suggests, this shows that there is no correlation between the movements of A and B...

Today's 20th is WMA Fibo Band.
Or rather, since there is almost no price movement, we are continuing the tactic of making profits in the range market. The bandwidth is pretty narrow, but the range is between 38960 above yellow and 38345 below yellow.
So, it's 38345 battle and defense below.
The decline stopped at blue ★, returned to 25MA (red middle line), and then collapsed again from there, so if you divide the lower yellow and lower green, it becomes a lower price break.
The green is currently 38140, but when it goes down, it expands (expands) and the level drops, so it seems that 38000 split will still be the point.

Today's 4th is a Fibonacci fan who also used it in the video.
This is a story about when viewed as “still” the upper price devaluation from the 3/22 high price...
It's a transition between +38.2% and +50%, but the upper price is still heavy. Although the ISM manufacturing industry was pretty bad in NY last night, stock prices remained flat. However, Japanese stocks are now in the value phase, so they are moving close to the NY Dow.
After all, I feel that 38500-39000 will move +38.2% and +50% this week. So it's not good to divide it by the +38.2% level.

Today's 29th is a breakpoint.
It blew up to 39150 yen in the morning and got it all back. that's a totally terrible market price lol
In the midst of a suspicious movement where ATR declines and IV rises sharply, in the end, today also failed to break the upper price so far. Obviously, this is a movement when the increase is heavy, and supply, demand, and mentality are deteriorating.
I feel like we need to improve supply and demand a little more in order to be able to go one step higher above 39,000 yen.
However, if it surpasses 39,241 yen, be careful of the sharp rise.

From now on, as a small serialized series,volatilityI think I'll write about it.
I came across an option andThe importance of “time” and “volatility”I learned. This is an extremely lucky thing if I think about it now,If you don't understand volatility correctly and make use of it in investment and trading, your investment/trade results must improveI think so.
Often, “volatility has been high recently” or “the volatility has been much lower, so isn't it about time stocks plummet?” Don't you hear the phrase?
Surprisingly, I think there are quite a few people who use the words mullet or volatility in their atmosphere without accurate knowledge or recognition of mullet.
So, albeit at my level of knowledge, I'm going to write about volatility.
[Types of Volatility]
There are several types of volatility, and each one is calculated in a different way and used differently. principally“Historical Volatility (Historical Volatility)”, “Implied Volatility (Implied Volatility)”, “Implied Volatility...

NVIDIA issued frightening financial results, and the Nikkei Average also rose to 38,937 yen at one point.
From there, sales went up to 38617 yen, but they recovered to the 38800 yen range around 10:00 and were pushed back by the 38800-38900 barrier in question.
If you look at it this way, it's solid, but the number of stocks that have risen and dropped in price and TOPIX are almost flat. Sure enough, TOPIX Core and Large 70 are around +0.3%, but MID400 and Small500 are negative.
Also, if you look at the Nikkei Average in dollars, the conversion line and reference line are dead crosses on the Ichimoku equilibrium chart. The trailing line was shown below the candlestick, and the current candlestick also broke the bottom of the clouds... and the reversal of the three roles was shown. In other words, it's a beautiful sale on a daily basis.
I'm talking about it in the profitability video, but in addition to the fact that there are no materials to buy Japanese stocks now,
・Supply and demand have deteriorated and have not improved ⇒ there are still abnormally many unpaid credit and arbitrage arrears
・Financial results were softer than expected, and expected EPS could not rise at all
・China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are strong, and portfolios of Asian stocks seen from overseas are shifting to selling in Japan and buying in China and Hong Kong
and a double pan due to fundamental supply and demand...

I thought the Nikkei Average had broken through the range, but it was hit and came back. I've been saying this for weeks, but I'm wary until next week's CPI. The final financial results for Japanese stocks have been ready up to that point, and I think it will be enough even after receiving the results and stock prices begin to respond upward. Of course, if the market moves quickly, this will just adjust. Our job is to always adjust stocks to the market.

Today's Ichimoku equilibrium chart too.
The sharp decline in US GDP since last night has stopped brilliantly at the lower limit of clouds. Well, I noticed this morning (laughs)
Although futures blown back in Google's financial results, the upper price was heavy in actual time. As a result, the situation continues with the turning line broken.
From here on, we can't move until the Bank of Japan results anymore, but the QT leak has already come out and there hasn't been much of a drop.
If today's content is pre-factored in with this, there may be minor movements even after the results.

TSMC/Netflix financial results are delicate due to the intensification of the war
Various factors have overlapped and caused stocks to plummet
As indicated, it is difficult to recover from the end of April to the beginning of May, and further declines are possible depending on PCE and FOMC results
Let's be careful, the position will be lowered steadily based on the strongest no positive