😆 "Global interest rate events"
On the 19th, the yen weakened against the dollar in the foreign exchange market.At one point, the dollar fell to 157.81 yen, marking a five-month low. The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose sharply along with the yield of long-term US government bonds. The pound declined.The Bank of England (the central bank of England) kept its policy interest rate unchanged, but indicated a continued easing stance. (12/20 6:30)
The US stock market is slightly down. There was no clear direction during the day, but ultimately could not recover from the selling pressure due to the hawkish shift by the FOMC.
'What will happen to the USA?'
😁 'Investors seem to be uncertain.'
The FOMC has declared that it has entered a new policy phase, which Guha pointed out as 'undoubtedly hawkish but not as hawkish as it seems'.Unless there are cracks in the labor market, the same person expects that a rate cut in January will be postponed.
😁 "Inflation won't stop..."
『It will be difficult to cut interest rates if that happens』
Nikkei
❌ Nikkei Futures ⬇️ margin of error
Fear of rapid decline in Nikkei VI⬆️
I hope the flow will shift from Japanese government bonds⬇️ to stocks
US dollar-yen⬆️ soaring
US market⬆️ is slightly rebounding
Semiconductor index ⬇️ Will semiconductors rebound?
Asia market ⬇️ Fell below...

Based on the given data, this is a hypothetical scenario of the policy determination by the Bank of Japan (hereinafter referred to as BOJ) at December 2024 from the perspective of '01'.
Situation visible from the data
1. Price trends (CPI)
Between 2022 and 2023, there was an inflation rate of close to 3-4%, especially from the end of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, it was around 4% which was very high for Japan.
In 2024, the inflation rate settled at around 2-3%, with some fluctuations. By October 2024, it reached 2.3% year-on-year (core also at 2.3%), approaching the target range of around 2%, indicating the possibility of a certain degree of ongoing price increase establishment, not just temporary factors.
Considering Japan's historical difficulty in achieving the 2% inflation target, the inflation rate in 2024 can be seen as a historical turning point for the Bank of Japan. Data shows that in 2024, there were many months with inflation exceeding 2%, indicating the potential for goal achievement to demonstrate a certain degree of establishment, rather than just being "transient."
2. Monetary Policy (Policy Interest Rate)
From the end of 2022 to 2023, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is...

😃"Enter more!"
According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI),The new Japanese stocks purchased by overseas activist funds have exceeded 1 trillion yen year-to-date, surpassing the previous best year of 2020. According to Bloomberg's analysis, the net buying amount, after subtracting proceeds from past investments, is likely to exceed 500 billion yen. (12/17 6:00 article)On a yearly basis, it exceeded the previous high of 2020. Bloomberg's analysis suggests that the net buying amount, after subtracting proceeds from past investments, is likely to exceed 500 billion yen. (Article at 6:00 on 12/17)
'Oh, this is...'
😄 'These are opinionated investors.'
Foreign investors' physical stock investments, which are often watched closely, have remained at a buying excess of approximately 400 billion yen so far this year.Excluding the purchases by many foreign activist investors, it suggests the possibility that they are buying very little.Japanese institutions, such as banks and life and non-life insurance companies, are selling off for unwinding cross-shareholdings, while pension funds are predominantly selling for rebalancing.
😅"It is a sad situation that ordinary overseas investors are losing interest in the Japan market."
"Only the USA is strong.."
Nikkei
⭕️ Nikkei futures ⬆️ Continue to fall, will it hit the stop limit?
Nikkei is up at the openingIs it down?
US market down due to FOMC adjustment
Dollar yen finally surpasses 154 yen
Semiconductors index up in the USA...