It is probably a concern for everyone now whether NVIDIA will be able to exceed guidance by $2 billion for the sixth consecutive quarter and issue guidance that exceeds $20 billion to $25 billion for the next quarter.
I believe that this quarter's earnings will meet expectations. There is strong demand for AI accelerators and Nvidia's Blackwell Superchips, and considering that there doesn't seem to be much slowdown yet, I think they will still deliver good numbers. The problem is probably the stock price reaction that investors are most worried about. This is something that cannot be predicted, but even if they release numbers that meet expectations and raise guidance, I don't think it will necessarily lead to an increase. This is because they may not be treated as "amazing numbers".
Looking at the options market, it is clear that there is a bullish attitude towards earnings as usual. The stock price is expected to rise or fall by 8%. In other words, this is equivalent to a fluctuation of around $279 billion in market capitalization.
This is because the implied volatility of options expiring on November 22 is around 90%, a relatively high level. This IV is likely to continue to rise further towards the company's earnings announcement. However, once the company reports its earnings and the event risk passes, the IV is expected to drop rapidly, just like the movements seen after any event or earnings announcement.