$Cboe SKEW Index(.SKEW.US$
In terms of indicators, it's an abnormal value and suggests a decline after 3 to 5 months, but everyone doesn't care 😅
In terms of indicators, it's an abnormal value and suggests a decline after 3 to 5 months, but everyone doesn't care 😅
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$Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund(DBC.US$
If the recession comes next year, it would be rewarded if I bought it, I don't know what to buy for commodities, but I don't worry if this is the case
If the recession comes next year, it would be rewarded if I bought it, I don't know what to buy for commodities, but I don't worry if this is the case
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$Starbucks(SBUX.US$
There's still a long way to go, but it seems like Starbucks, which everyone knows around the world, is in 200 weeks
If there is a bullish strategy to increase the number of stores to the target of about 20,000 stores in China and India, I would like to make a consultation purchase.
There's still a long way to go, but it seems like Starbucks, which everyone knows around the world, is in 200 weeks
If there is a bullish strategy to increase the number of stores to the target of about 20,000 stores in China and India, I would like to make a consultation purchase.
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
予想以上の利下げ期待が行き過ぎて、金利が急速に低下し、金融関係の引き締めが緩みつつある。
これはFEDが望む形だろうか?逆説だが、金利が利下げ期待で行き過ぎると市場への警告としてFEDの利上げの可能性が上がらないだろうか?
唯一、金利低下を肯定するのは雇用なので、一層失業率が大事になる。
もはやインフレ低下は当たり前で高止まり、上振れ観測した時の下落も警戒
予想以上の利下げ期待が行き過ぎて、金利が急速に低下し、金融関係の引き締めが緩みつつある。
これはFEDが望む形だろうか?逆説だが、金利が利下げ期待で行き過ぎると市場への警告としてFEDの利上げの可能性が上がらないだろうか?
唯一、金利低下を肯定するのは雇用なので、一層失業率が大事になる。
もはやインフレ低下は当たり前で高止まり、上振れ観測した時の下落も警戒
$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$
Friday's lowest price, down about 18% from the most recent high, then 2% to enter the bear market
・A beautiful neck formed by Sanson on a weekly basis
・Interest rates on 10-year bonds are still high
Could it be that institutional investors are shorting government bonds and not making money by shorting Russell 2000?
are you going to push ahead by avoiding the bear market at the last minute?
Are you going to get in Bear?
While adjusting the short position as usual
It's neutral now, isn't it?
Friday's lowest price, down about 18% from the most recent high, then 2% to enter the bear market
・A beautiful neck formed by Sanson on a weekly basis
・Interest rates on 10-year bonds are still high
Could it be that institutional investors are shorting government bonds and not making money by shorting Russell 2000?
are you going to push ahead by avoiding the bear market at the last minute?
Are you going to get in Bear?
While adjusting the short position as usual
It's neutral now, isn't it?
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$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$
There was a big rise yesterday against interest rates. I was able to make a profit when I often shorted while watching over 10 years of US government bonds...
I think the market probably judged that government bonds of 10 years or more had bottomed out (personal capital inflow into long-term ETFs at the past level 1 level) and that retail was good was also well received.
Certainly, even from the FED and the US government, I don't think 5% of 30 years of interest on regional banks or debt is acceptable (recently, pigeon support from senior FED officials), and everyone is thinking about it properly.
However, when I compared the chart with 10-year US bonds, the inverse correlation was delayed by about 1W, so why was the short position maintained for a while?
Pay attention to the canaries in the coal mine. (SOXX is a true canary, but...)
There was a big rise yesterday against interest rates. I was able to make a profit when I often shorted while watching over 10 years of US government bonds...
I think the market probably judged that government bonds of 10 years or more had bottomed out (personal capital inflow into long-term ETFs at the past level 1 level) and that retail was good was also well received.
Certainly, even from the FED and the US government, I don't think 5% of 30 years of interest on regional banks or debt is acceptable (recently, pigeon support from senior FED officials), and everyone is thinking about it properly.
However, when I compared the chart with 10-year US bonds, the inverse correlation was delayed by about 1W, so why was the short position maintained for a while?
Pay attention to the canaries in the coal mine. (SOXX is a true canary, but...)
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
1.コアCPIが予想以上に良くて3.6%の年末目標を下回る
2.失業率が4.2%以上になる
3.銀行何行か破綻
4.決算が軒並み悪い
とかしないと国債金利高いままで株価圧迫しそうです。4はまだまだないと思うので4の逆で1が1番良いシナリオなんですけど、ジローの数値は8月から下がってるから4はいけそうなんですけど…反映まだかな?
1.コアCPIが予想以上に良くて3.6%の年末目標を下回る
2.失業率が4.2%以上になる
3.銀行何行か破綻
4.決算が軒並み悪い
とかしないと国債金利高いままで株価圧迫しそうです。4はまだまだないと思うので4の逆で1が1番良いシナリオなんですけど、ジローの数値は8月から下がってるから4はいけそうなんですけど…反映まだかな?
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$Japan 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(JP10Y.BD$
While interest rates have risen in the US, Europe, and other countries around the world, Japan has maintained negative interest rates.
If this is the case, there is nothing we can do about it when the yen is under strong pressure, so I think it would be better to cancel negative interest rates. Rather, it was too late.
Because when the yen is under pressure, it would be good to return it again
While interest rates have risen in the US, Europe, and other countries around the world, Japan has maintained negative interest rates.
If this is the case, there is nothing we can do about it when the yen is under strong pressure, so I think it would be better to cancel negative interest rates. Rather, it was too late.
Because when the yen is under pressure, it would be good to return it again
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The upstream generation of generative AI is exclusive to NVIDIA, and it has been confirmed that one person wins without so many products with high added value.
Considering NVIDIA's monopoly state of GPUs and the 4 years of the large GPU development cycle, it seems that NVIDIA's one-man victory for generative AI equipment will continue for a while. NVIDIA has an overwhelming technical advantage
Truly disruptive innovation
If one person wins, it means that the number of losing companies will increase because of that, so I think the map of the semiconductor industry will also change.
NVIDIA's stock price is often high, so I have an idea to buy AMD, Micron, etc., but what about?
The stock price fell due to profit-taking sales and some shorts at the target stock price of 500 dollars, but I don't think it's a high price at this profit level.
Considering NVIDIA's monopoly state of GPUs and the 4 years of the large GPU development cycle, it seems that NVIDIA's one-man victory for generative AI equipment will continue for a while. NVIDIA has an overwhelming technical advantage
Truly disruptive innovation
If one person wins, it means that the number of losing companies will increase because of that, so I think the map of the semiconductor industry will also change.
NVIDIA's stock price is often high, so I have an idea to buy AMD, Micron, etc., but what about?
The stock price fell due to profit-taking sales and some shorts at the target stock price of 500 dollars, but I don't think it's a high price at this profit level.
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$Texas Instruments(TXN.US$
Sales and profits have been tough for a while due to the slump in the Chinese economy, but isn't it time to buy?
ADI is likely to drop due to financial results, and if it goes down at the timing of easy travel
Buy it little by little, starting around $160.
The dividends aren't bad, and I think it's a good buy.
Sales and profits have been tough for a while due to the slump in the Chinese economy, but isn't it time to buy?
ADI is likely to drop due to financial results, and if it goes down at the timing of easy travel
Buy it little by little, starting around $160.
The dividends aren't bad, and I think it's a good buy.
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KOJIKOJI OP : The last time this abnormal value was set was on January 6, 2021. There was certainly a big drop after that.