Today's 30th is also called the Bolivan Delayed Line, or -1σ and -2σ.
I think the decline has stopped once, but once the lid is opened, NY is soft, and SOX, which was +1.8% before, is also -0.3% at closing price, making it difficult for semiconductors to return.
Furthermore, due to the depreciation of the yen, the depreciation of the yen is more sensitive than the appreciation of stocks, and it feels like the appreciation of the yen due to dollar sales due to falling interest rates is holding back stocks today.
In any case, there is also an aspect of yesterday's reactionary depreciation of the 800 yen increase, so I think we'll wait for the Bank of Japan after all.
Even if -2σ is the lower price and the upper price is -1σ, it seems that it will still fluctuate during the day because it is a volatility situation with a 1200 yen range from 37700 to 38890.

First, take a look at the following graph.
This is the next week after 2022“Two-market total credit balance and credit ratio”This is a graph of
First time in 17 years during the week of 4/19/24Credit purchase balance 4.7 trillion yenIt has broken through. And the latest one that came out yesterday 18thCredit balance of 4 trillion788.2 billion yen even with data for the “24/7/12 week”It is.
This remains quite a lotCredit balance is future sales demandTherefore, the current supply and demand for Japanese stocks is bad.
Institutional investors' arbitrage balance is 2.3 trillion yenThis is also a pretty high level. So once the gears turn in reverse like this one, the items for sale come out all at once.
Up to this point, it's a normal story, but let's take a closer look at what can be read from this graph.
First, take a look at the period in which the blue graph (credit backlog) is on the rise.
5.5 months from 2022/7/22 week to 23/1/6 week, and 5 months from 2023/5/19 to 23/10/27.
And 5 months from the week of 1/12/2024 to the week of 6/21/24.
In all of them, the rise in credit buybacks came to an end in roughly 5 to 5.5 months, right?
well, trust me...

Today's 22nd is 25MA and 50MA.
Although there was a big return from Friday's closing price of 39590 yen, it has moved by dividing 25MA, and it is becoming possible to stand between 25MA for the top and 50MA for the bottom.
And if the 25MA is clearly divided, even if it were to return, this 25MA would become a resistance and fall again... the movement would be as per the textbook.
Whether it can surpass the 25MA, which is at the 40000 yen milestone at an early stage, is becoming important.

The US CPI for 7/11 at 21:30 declined steadily, and it was thought that it would pass safely due to rising expectations for interest rate cuts due to falling inflation.
However, semiconductors that had risen too much were sold, and the SP500 was -0.85%, and the NASDAQ was -1.95%. Furthermore, SOX was drastically adjusted to -3.47%.
Furthermore, US interest rates declined in response to CPI, and when dollars were sold, excessive dollar yen and cross yen also rebounded.
As a result, Nikkei futures also fell drastically, and all at once, the SQ value battle dropped one level from 42000 yen to 41500 yen.
However, this slapstick is about the world of interest rates, exchange, the Nikkei Average, and Japan's derivative SQ, and it's a different world story from the “Japanese stock market.” So, today's 1000 yen depreciation is a reaction of this week's 2000 yen appreciation.
As proof of this, there has been almost no increase in volatility (Nikkei VI). Originally, if the Japanese market plummeted, VI should skyrocket.
Furthermore, if you look at the ratio between the number of stocks that have risen in price and the number of stocks that have dropped in price, it has risen by a whopping 60% or more.
Since this is the situation, everyone's portfolio losses have increased a lot...

Today's 20th is WMA Fibo Band.
Or rather, since there is almost no price movement, we are continuing the tactic of making profits in the range market. The bandwidth is pretty narrow, but the range is between 38960 above yellow and 38345 below yellow.
So, it's 38345 battle and defense below.
The decline stopped at blue ★, returned to 25MA (red middle line), and then collapsed again from there, so if you divide the lower yellow and lower green, it becomes a lower price break.
The green is currently 38140, but when it goes down, it expands (expands) and the level drops, so it seems that 38000 split will still be the point.

Today's NT magnification.
As I mentioned in yesterday's video, interest rates fell due to the US CPI & FOMC, high-tech semiconductors rose, and banking, insurance, and finance became weak.
Then it's NT Long, but profits are growing as expected.
Japanese stocks as a whole are weak, so the upper price is heavy, but since it's an NT long, the bottom is solid, and we have to be wary of an upward trend at the Bank of Japan tomorrow, and it seems good to forego the situation where they originally wanted to sell CALL.
Well, I think it will be enough after watching the Bank of Japan's later movements. At times like this, NT magnification is a dual-denomination tactic, so it's easy.

Today is a breakpoint with futures.
The upper price was around 38950 yen, which had been shown several times in last week's video, and since surpassing this this morning, it has run over 39,000 yen. It went up at a rapid pace, so I wonder if they can get a push from here and finish above 39,000 yen.
As for this breakpoint chart, last time it broke 39,785 yen downward on 4/3, the price of Zaraba was low at 36,710 yen, and then dropped by 3000 yen.
Before that, it broke above 36600 on 2/8 and rose 4000 yen to 40,570 yen.
As expected, I think the upper price is heavy now, so what if they ask if it can rise by 20,000 yen or 3000 yen? It comes with it.
However, the immediate trend is to review and buy Japanese stocks, so let's keep up until they collapse once. On the other hand, if you sell it even though this kind of range break sign is showing, you could get seriously burned, so be careful.

What is the second cognitive bias following part 1 I wrote on 5/9”Prospect theoryIt's”.
This is also famous, isn't it?
「People far outweigh the feeling of discomfort when they suffer a loss than satisfaction when they make a profit」
It's something like that.
That's exactly the case for me, and I think almost everyone reading this is also the case.
This kind of state of mind in Japanese”loss avoidanceIt's called”.
And this “loss avoidance” is”Big loss small profitIt's going to invite”, isn't it?
I don't want to lose money, so I'm in a hurry to make a profit. It went long and the stock price went up, but if they came and went down, they didn't like it, so they quickly made a profit. And if it moves in reverse, they don't want to lose money, so they hesitate to cut losses and hold it until they return to the purchase price. As a result, it falls further and falls into big losses or salting.
My head hurts too, and I think everyone does too. (lol)
If you have a cautious personality and are too loss-avoidant, this will result in “big losses or small profits.” Or rather, it comes up here too, but “I hesitate to cut my losses because I don't want to lose money” is actuallyLosses have not been avoided at allEveryone knows...

Today 5/2 is squishy momentum.
Or rather, the 5MA battle is important, and as of 9:25 in the morning, the 5MA futures are around 38050 yen. And right now, futures are 38050 yen.
The 5MA has already changed downward, so if it falls below the 5MA, it is a 5MA cross that falls.
Since only the Squeeze Momentum ceiling sign has been issued yet, although it is a slightly weak sign, there is a growing possibility that it will be pushed back at 38,000 dollars without the return price range as expected. I think whether to break the 5MA or stick to it is a checkpoint before employment statistics.