Taca〻
liked
10
SELL IN MAY is a well-known saying among many investors, but the rest of it is not widely known.
Sell in May, never come back until the special treat on St. Leger's Day.
This saying dates back to the 18th century in the United Kingdom, when investors at that time avoided the quiet period of summer and returned to the market around St. Leger's Day in September.
The St. Leger Stakes is one of the classic races of British horse racing and also symbolizes the beginning of autumn.
The reason for the rise in stock prices in September is that the market, which has been quiet during the summer, becomes more active with the resumption of corporate activity and the return of investors.
In particular, after St. Leger's Day, new investment opportunities increase, leading to an upward trend in stock prices.
This year's St. Leger's Day will be held on September 14th. Market activity is expected to increase after this day, and a sharp rise in stock prices is anticipated from the third week.
The decline this week may be a great opportunity to buy.
Sell in May, never come back until the special treat on St. Leger's Day.
This saying dates back to the 18th century in the United Kingdom, when investors at that time avoided the quiet period of summer and returned to the market around St. Leger's Day in September.
The St. Leger Stakes is one of the classic races of British horse racing and also symbolizes the beginning of autumn.
The reason for the rise in stock prices in September is that the market, which has been quiet during the summer, becomes more active with the resumption of corporate activity and the return of investors.
In particular, after St. Leger's Day, new investment opportunities increase, leading to an upward trend in stock prices.
This year's St. Leger's Day will be held on September 14th. Market activity is expected to increase after this day, and a sharp rise in stock prices is anticipated from the third week.
The decline this week may be a great opportunity to buy.
Translated
1
According to market consensus, the interest rate cut is expected to begin in November 2023 with a target rate of 1.25%.
A gradual interest rate cut of 0.25% is expected at each FOMC meeting, and if this pace continues, there is a high likelihood that the interest rate cut will be completed by mid-2025.
However, as the interest rate cut progresses, the market will begin to factor in the end time.
As the interest rate cut reaches its later stages, stock prices may be influenced and stop rising.
In other words, a strategy is needed that takes into account the fact that the market is already starting to move in anticipation of the end of the interest rate cuts.
What we should be thinking about is not the timing of the interest rate cuts starting, but how the market will move when the interest rate cuts end.
A strategy based on that timing will determine the success or failure of future investments.
A gradual interest rate cut of 0.25% is expected at each FOMC meeting, and if this pace continues, there is a high likelihood that the interest rate cut will be completed by mid-2025.
However, as the interest rate cut progresses, the market will begin to factor in the end time.
As the interest rate cut reaches its later stages, stock prices may be influenced and stop rising.
In other words, a strategy is needed that takes into account the fact that the market is already starting to move in anticipation of the end of the interest rate cuts.
What we should be thinking about is not the timing of the interest rate cuts starting, but how the market will move when the interest rate cuts end.
A strategy based on that timing will determine the success or failure of future investments.
Translated
8
Taca〻
voted
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ is On August 28th in the after-hours of the U.S. stock market (morning of August 29th in Japan), they are scheduled to announce the earnings for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025. While dominating the market for semiconductors for artificial intelligence (AI), the focus is on whether they can exceed market expectations with strong growth and performance. Please determine if Nvidia can outperform market expectations. Predict the closing price of Nvidia on the day following the earnings call and cast your vote!
【Compensation】
●Distribute 10,000 points equally
Until 10:00 PM on August 29th (Japan time)ToThe closing price of nvidia on August 29th (5:00 AM on August 30th Japan time)Please predict the financial estimates and select from the price range below. If the actual closing price matches the selected price range, points will be evenly distributed to all users who selected the corresponding price range (e.g. if 50 users correctly predict, each will receive 200 points)!
【Special Challenge! Win 500 yen worth of Amazon gift card】
Predict nvidia's closing price accurately and get a chance to win additional rewards!
By 10:00 PM on August 29th (Japan time)on August 29thWith...
【Compensation】
●Distribute 10,000 points equally
Until 10:00 PM on August 29th (Japan time)ToThe closing price of nvidia on August 29th (5:00 AM on August 30th Japan time)Please predict the financial estimates and select from the price range below. If the actual closing price matches the selected price range, points will be evenly distributed to all users who selected the corresponding price range (e.g. if 50 users correctly predict, each will receive 200 points)!
【Special Challenge! Win 500 yen worth of Amazon gift card】
Predict nvidia's closing price accurately and get a chance to win additional rewards!
By 10:00 PM on August 29th (Japan time)on August 29thWith...
Translated
170
748
Taca〻
reacted to and commented on
Most investors believe that returns can be maximized by purchasing when stock prices drop. The volatility is particularly high $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$For products such as these, you will feel that it is more advantageous to enter when the market price falls.
We simulated which is more efficient, whether to actually buy with the dollar cost averaging method every month or to buy them all at once when a certain% drop.
Period: past 10 years
① Dollar cost averaging method (monthly fixed purchase): simple strategy to invest 0.1 million yen each month in SOXL
② Purchases when falling: Invest in drinks when the stock price falls by 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%
*Investments will be suspended for months when the conditions are not met, and the accumulated funds will be invested in a lump sum after the conditions are met.
upshot
The simulation results were unexpected,
Strategies that buy a fixed amount every month have higher returns than any other strategyI showed it.
The next highest return was 5%, and the worst was 40%.
“It's more profitable to buy when it falls...
We simulated which is more efficient, whether to actually buy with the dollar cost averaging method every month or to buy them all at once when a certain% drop.
Period: past 10 years
① Dollar cost averaging method (monthly fixed purchase): simple strategy to invest 0.1 million yen each month in SOXL
② Purchases when falling: Invest in drinks when the stock price falls by 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%
*Investments will be suspended for months when the conditions are not met, and the accumulated funds will be invested in a lump sum after the conditions are met.
upshot
The simulation results were unexpected,
Strategies that buy a fixed amount every month have higher returns than any other strategyI showed it.
The next highest return was 5%, and the worst was 40%.
“It's more profitable to buy when it falls...
Translated
24
1
Taca〻
commented on
this morning $2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX.US)$ BTC futures x2 ETF has been listed.
When I checked the specifications, there was the following description.
(Japanese translation) The fund expects to gain double (2x) exposure to the index by investing part of its assets into wholly owned subsidiaries (“subsidiaries”) established under Cayman Islands law.
Futures leverage is 4 times. ETFs are double, so there's money left over.
Surplus money is used to buy bonds, etc., so the American government, which wants to buy government bonds, approves futures virtual currency ETFs, and does not approve physical virtual currency ETFs.
However, it is described that BITX will invest some of the surplus money into a Cayman Islands subsidiary.
How are the Cayman Islands
When I checked the specifications, there was the following description.
(Japanese translation) The fund expects to gain double (2x) exposure to the index by investing part of its assets into wholly owned subsidiaries (“subsidiaries”) established under Cayman Islands law.
Futures leverage is 4 times. ETFs are double, so there's money left over.
Surplus money is used to buy bonds, etc., so the American government, which wants to buy government bonds, approves futures virtual currency ETFs, and does not approve physical virtual currency ETFs.
However, it is described that BITX will invest some of the surplus money into a Cayman Islands subsidiary.
How are the Cayman Islands
Translated
3
3
Taca〻
commented on
$McDonald's (MCD.US)$
In Tokyo it is abbreviated as Macc, but in Osaka it is called Mcdonald's, which is a famous story, by the way, people in Kyoto and Kobe say Mcdonald's!
And in Hamamatsu, a fun fact is that it's called Naldo.
Corporate action to buy back fractions of MCD shares below 99 at 310 each.
The previous record high was around 297? So considering the recent sideways movement, it's delicious.
And one more thing, it seems that you can no longer accumulate Rakuten points at mcdonald's.
In Tokyo it is abbreviated as Macc, but in Osaka it is called Mcdonald's, which is a famous story, by the way, people in Kyoto and Kobe say Mcdonald's!
And in Hamamatsu, a fun fact is that it's called Naldo.
Corporate action to buy back fractions of MCD shares below 99 at 310 each.
The previous record high was around 297? So considering the recent sideways movement, it's delicious.
And one more thing, it seems that you can no longer accumulate Rakuten points at mcdonald's.
Translated
1
4
Taca〻
commented on
Shiseido “Boycott Movement in China”
The Chinese government has strengthened its obligation to disclose cosmetic ingredients, and Japanese manufacturer leaders are concerned about technology outflow, saying “product recipes, which are the lives of manufacturers, are required to be disclosed.”
It's the last time I tell you. They are driven into bankruptcy due to dumping. That's why they keep saying leave China. Business survival issues
The Chinese government has strengthened its obligation to disclose cosmetic ingredients, and Japanese manufacturer leaders are concerned about technology outflow, saying “product recipes, which are the lives of manufacturers, are required to be disclosed.”
It's the last time I tell you. They are driven into bankruptcy due to dumping. That's why they keep saying leave China. Business survival issues
Translated
2
1
Well, even though I am technically an expert, I also love fundamentals and rumors, haha.
Today it's about Microsoft, also known as Maiko!
Open AI is a hot topic, but when the rumor came out, there was a 2σ deviation. In the end, Altman returns to its original position, so I expected that the recent movements were just attention-seeking behavior! I fantasized about being a bit delusional, hoping for a 2σ touch regression with this topic, but it didn't happen. Will it settle down until the moving average by the end of the year? That seems reasonable.
Today it's about Microsoft, also known as Maiko!
Open AI is a hot topic, but when the rumor came out, there was a 2σ deviation. In the end, Altman returns to its original position, so I expected that the recent movements were just attention-seeking behavior! I fantasized about being a bit delusional, hoping for a 2σ touch regression with this topic, but it didn't happen. Will it settle down until the moving average by the end of the year? That seems reasonable.
Translated
![[empty]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/folder.5c37692712.png)
![[error]](https://static.moomoo.com/node_futunn_nnq/assets/images/no-network.991ae8055c.png)
![[loading]](data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMjYiIGhlaWdodD0iMjYiIHZpZXdCb3g9IjAgMCAyNiAyNiIgZmlsbD0ibm9uZSIgeG1sbnM9Imh0dHA6Ly93d3cudzMub3JnLzIwMDAvc3ZnIj4KPHBhdGggZmlsbC1ydWxlPSJldmVub2RkIiBjbGlwLXJ1bGU9ImV2ZW5vZGQiIGQ9Ik0xMi45OTk5IDAuMzI1NDM5QzYuMDQxMTEgMC4zMjU0MzkgMC4zOTk5MDIgNS45NjY2NSAwLjM5OTkwMiAxMi45MjU0QzAuMzk5OTAyIDE5Ljg4NDIgNi4wNDExMSAyNS41MjU0IDEyLjk5OTkgMjUuNTI1NFYyMi43MjU0QzcuNTg3NTEgMjIuNzI1NCAzLjE5OTkgMTguMzM3OCAzLjE5OTkgMTIuOTI1NEMzLjE5OTkgNy41MTMwNSA3LjU4NzUxIDMuMTI1NDQgMTIuOTk5OSAzLjEyNTQ0VjAuMzI1NDM5WiIgZmlsbD0idXJsKCNwYWludDBfbGluZWFyXzIyMDBfNDg2NikiLz4KPHBhdGggZmlsbC1ydWxlPSJldmVub2RkIiBjbGlwLXJ1bGU9ImV2ZW5vZGQiIGQ9Ik0xMyAyNS41MjU0QzE5Ljk1ODggMjUuNTI1NCAyNS42IDE5Ljg4NDIgMjUuNiAxMi45MjU0QzI1LjYgNS45NjY2NSAxOS45NTg4IDAuMzI1NDQgMTMgMC4zMjU0MzlWMy4xMjU0NEMxOC40MTI0IDMuMTI1NDQgMjIuOCA3LjUxMzA1IDIyLjggMTIuOTI1NEMyMi44IDE4LjMzNzggMTguNDEyNCAyMi43MjU0IDEzIDIyLjcyNTRWMjUuNTI1NFoiIGZpbGw9InVybCgjcGFpbnQxX2xpbmVhcl8yMjAwXzQ4NjYpIi8+CjxjaXJjbGUgY3g9IjEzLjAwMDEiIGN5PSIyNC4xMjUzIiByPSIxLjQiIGZpbGw9InVybCgjcGFpbnQyX2xpbmVhcl8yMjAwXzQ4NjYpIi8+CjxkZWZzPgo8bGluZWFyR3JhZGllbnQgaWQ9InBhaW50MF9saW5lYXJfMjIwMF80ODY2IiB4MT0iNy4zOTk5IiB5MT0iMjUuNTI1NCIgeDI9IjcuMzk5OSIgeTI9IjIuNDI1NDQiIGdyYWRpZW50VW5pdHM9InVzZXJTcGFjZU9uVXNlIj4KPHN0b3Agc3RvcC1jb2xvcj0iIzdBN0E3QSIgc3RvcC1vcGFjaXR5PSIwIi8+CjxzdG9wIG9mZnNldD0iMSIgc3RvcC1jb2xvcj0iIzdBN0E3QSIgc3RvcC1vcGFjaXR5PSIwLjUiLz4KPC9saW5lYXJHcmFkaWVudD4KPGxpbmVhckdyYWRpZW50IGlkPSJwYWludDFfbGluZWFyXzIyMDBfNDg2NiIgeDE9IjIwIiB5MT0iMjUuNTI1NCIgeDI9IjIwIiB5Mj0iMi40MjU0NCIgZ3JhZGllbnRVbml0cz0idXNlclNwYWNlT25Vc2UiPgo8c3RvcCBzdG9wLWNvbG9yPSIjN0E3QTdBIi8+CjxzdG9wIG9mZnNldD0iMSIgc3RvcC1jb2xvcj0iIzdBN0E3QSIgc3RvcC1vcGFjaXR5PSIwLjUiLz4KPC9saW5lYXJHcmFkaWVudD4KPGxpbmVhckdyYWRpZW50IGlkPSJwYWludDJfbGluZWFyXzIyMDBfNDg2NiIgeDE9IjEzLjAwMDEiIHkxPSIyNC4xMjUzIiB4Mj0iMTQuNDAwMSIgeTI9IjI0LjEyNTMiIGdyYWRpZW50VW5pdHM9InVzZXJTcGFjZU9uVXNlIj4KPHN0b3Agc3RvcC1jb2xvcj0iIzdBN0E3QSIvPgo8c3RvcCBvZmZzZXQ9IjEiIHN0b3AtY29sb3I9IiM3QTdBN0EiIHN0b3Atb3BhY2l0eT0iMCIvPgo8L2xpbmVhckdyYWRpZW50Pgo8L2RlZnM+Cjwvc3ZnPgo=)