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1. Non-farm payroll employment
・0.25 million 4000 people increase from the previous month (significantly exceeding the expected increase of 0.15 million people)
・A significant increase for the first time in 6 months
・The number of employees in the previous month was revised upward to an increase of 0.15 million9000 people (preliminary value increased by 0.14 million2000 people).
・The total number of employees in July and August was upwardly revised by 0.07 million2000 people.
2. Unemployment rate
・The unemployment rate in September decreased to 4.1%.
・Market expectations are at 4.2%.
・It was 4.2% in the previous month.
3. Average hourly wage
・A 4% increase compared to the same month last year (market expectation of 3.8% increase).
- A 3.9% increase from the previous month.
- A 0.4% increase compared to the previous month (market estimates +0.3% increase).
- A 0.5% increase in August.
- The growth of wages for production and non-management positions slowed to 3.9%.
4. Trends in employment by major industry sectors
Industries driving employment growth
- Entertainment and Hospitality
- Healthcare
・Government agencies
・Manufacturing industry has seen a decrease in employment for the second consecutive month.
・Employment diffusion index (DI) is at a high level since January.
・The possibility of a significant rate cut (0.5 points) at the FOMC meeting in November has decreased.
・In the interest rate swap market, the pricing in of a rate cut in November has receded to 25 basis points.
6. Special Factors
・The Boeing workers' strike is expected to be reflected in the statistics for October.
...
・0.25 million 4000 people increase from the previous month (significantly exceeding the expected increase of 0.15 million people)
・A significant increase for the first time in 6 months
・The number of employees in the previous month was revised upward to an increase of 0.15 million9000 people (preliminary value increased by 0.14 million2000 people).
・The total number of employees in July and August was upwardly revised by 0.07 million2000 people.
2. Unemployment rate
・The unemployment rate in September decreased to 4.1%.
・Market expectations are at 4.2%.
・It was 4.2% in the previous month.
3. Average hourly wage
・A 4% increase compared to the same month last year (market expectation of 3.8% increase).
- A 3.9% increase from the previous month.
- A 0.4% increase compared to the previous month (market estimates +0.3% increase).
- A 0.5% increase in August.
- The growth of wages for production and non-management positions slowed to 3.9%.
4. Trends in employment by major industry sectors
Industries driving employment growth
- Entertainment and Hospitality
- Healthcare
・Government agencies
・Manufacturing industry has seen a decrease in employment for the second consecutive month.
・Employment diffusion index (DI) is at a high level since January.
・The possibility of a significant rate cut (0.5 points) at the FOMC meeting in November has decreased.
・In the interest rate swap market, the pricing in of a rate cut in November has receded to 25 basis points.
6. Special Factors
・The Boeing workers' strike is expected to be reflected in the statistics for October.
...
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In this report, we will introduce market forecasts for the first half of 2024 and notable stocks (industries) of Japanese stocks. We do not show any recommendations or trading guidelines for the stock examples mentioned in this report. Based on the situation that may occur in Japan and the US in the 2024 market price, I would appreciate it if you could focus on industries that are likely to be affected and why.
■US Market Outlook
＜An eventful presidential election every 4 years＞
The trend in US stocks will continue to spread to Japanese stocks.
Of particular interest is the US presidential election to be held on November 5 this year.
Centering on the S&P 500, we have data that is likely to increase stock prices in the year of the US presidential election.
Even in recent years, when President Trump was elected in 2016 and when President Biden was elected in 2020, both stock prices have increased significantly since then.
However, turbulence also occurred along the way.
2016 was a shock caused by the unexpected withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU in June, and in 2020, the stock market crashed drastically due to the novel coronavirus pandemic in March.
Also, from September to October, which is just before the election, the stock market is likely to become unstable due to risk aversion movements.
2024 is 3 from the beginning of the year...
■US Market Outlook
＜An eventful presidential election every 4 years＞
The trend in US stocks will continue to spread to Japanese stocks.
Of particular interest is the US presidential election to be held on November 5 this year.
Centering on the S&P 500, we have data that is likely to increase stock prices in the year of the US presidential election.
Even in recent years, when President Trump was elected in 2016 and when President Biden was elected in 2020, both stock prices have increased significantly since then.
However, turbulence also occurred along the way.
2016 was a shock caused by the unexpected withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU in June, and in 2020, the stock market crashed drastically due to the novel coronavirus pandemic in March.
Also, from September to October, which is just before the election, the stock market is likely to become unstable due to risk aversion movements.
2024 is 3 from the beginning of the year...
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Good evening to all Moomoo users!![]()
This is the reading for tonight's NY stock.![]()
Market Overview
The US market started, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of excellent stocks, rose 116.09 dollars to 38356.07 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, rose 74.24 points to 15525.55. The S&P 500 average, which consists of stocks of 500 major US companies, is 18.25 points higher at 5028.85.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
Top news
The FRB's lag and the Bank of Japan's move ahead of schedule, and the specter of monetary policy that bothers investors = Kumano Hideo
There is severe adjustment pressure on Japanese and US stock prices. This is because the expected start of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (FRB) seems to be behind schedule from June, which was initially anticipated by the market.
The decline in US stocks is not over yet - Goldman Rubner
To prepare for a further decline in US stocks, a Goldman Sachs Group tactical specialist...
Market Overview
The US market started, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of excellent stocks, rose 116.09 dollars to 38356.07 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, rose 74.24 points to 15525.55. The S&P 500 average, which consists of stocks of 500 major US companies, is 18.25 points higher at 5028.85.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
Top news
The FRB's lag and the Bank of Japan's move ahead of schedule, and the specter of monetary policy that bothers investors = Kumano Hideo
There is severe adjustment pressure on Japanese and US stock prices. This is because the expected start of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (FRB) seems to be behind schedule from June, which was initially anticipated by the market.
The decline in US stocks is not over yet - Goldman Rubner
To prepare for a further decline in US stocks, a Goldman Sachs Group tactical specialist...
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Good evening to all Moomoo users!![]()
This is the reading for tonight's NY stock.![]()
Market Overview
The US market started, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of excellent stocks, rose 61.75 dollars to 38523.26 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, rose 65.84 points to 16236.20. The S&P 500 average, which consists of stocks of 500 large American stocks, is 5172.95, 12.31 points higher.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
Top news
[Index Bulletin] The US March Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.2% from the previous month, and the core index, which falls short of market expectations, increased 0.2% from the same period
The U.S. Department of Labor will make an announcementProducer Price Index (PPI) for Marchis0.2% increase from previous month、Below market expectations for a 0.3% increase. It slowed from a 0.6% increase in the previous fiscal year and became the lowest since the beginning of the year.2.1% increase compared to the previous yearGrowth expanded from the previous 1.6%, and once again to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) target of 2% or more...
Market Overview
The US market started, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which consists of excellent stocks, rose 61.75 dollars to 38523.26 dollars, and the Nasdaq Composite Stock Price Index, which has a high high-tech stock ratio, rose 65.84 points to 16236.20. The S&P 500 average, which consists of stocks of 500 large American stocks, is 5172.95, 12.31 points higher.
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
Top news
[Index Bulletin] The US March Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.2% from the previous month, and the core index, which falls short of market expectations, increased 0.2% from the same period
The U.S. Department of Labor will make an announcementProducer Price Index (PPI) for Marchis0.2% increase from previous month、Below market expectations for a 0.3% increase. It slowed from a 0.6% increase in the previous fiscal year and became the lowest since the beginning of the year.2.1% increase compared to the previous yearGrowth expanded from the previous 1.6%, and once again to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) target of 2% or more...
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Hello, Moomoo users! Good work on the market close.![]()
Today's stock market summary is as follows. Thank you.![]()
The Nikkei Stock Average ended at 40,369.44 yen, up 201.37 yen from the previous trading day.
Japanese stocks rebounded, buoyed by solid US economic indicators and buying in resource-related stocks.
The end of electricity and gas subsidies could push up Japan's prices - BOJ policy is complex.
In April, prices increased for 2,806 food items, including sausages, according to a private survey.
Kobayashi Pharmaceutical saw a sharp rise in the afternoon, with a press conference starting around 2 o'clock.
Hot Stocks: $Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967.JP)$, $Rohm (6963.JP)$etc.
moomoo News Japanese Stocks Zeber
Market Overview
The Nikkei stock average on the Tokyo stock market today closed at 40,369.44 yen, up 201.37 yen from the previous trading day, while the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) closed at 2,768.62, up 17.81 points.
Top News
Japanese stocks rebounded on positive US economic indicators, with buying seen in resource-related stocks.
On the 29th, the Tokyo stock market rebounded. The revised value of US consumer sentiment raised to the highest level since July 2021, exceeding the market's median forecast.
The Nikkei Stock Average ended at 40,369.44 yen, up 201.37 yen from the previous trading day.
Japanese stocks rebounded, buoyed by solid US economic indicators and buying in resource-related stocks.
The end of electricity and gas subsidies could push up Japan's prices - BOJ policy is complex.
In April, prices increased for 2,806 food items, including sausages, according to a private survey.
Kobayashi Pharmaceutical saw a sharp rise in the afternoon, with a press conference starting around 2 o'clock.
Hot Stocks: $Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (4967.JP)$, $Rohm (6963.JP)$etc.
moomoo News Japanese Stocks Zeber
Market Overview
The Nikkei stock average on the Tokyo stock market today closed at 40,369.44 yen, up 201.37 yen from the previous trading day, while the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) closed at 2,768.62, up 17.81 points.
Top News
Japanese stocks rebounded on positive US economic indicators, with buying seen in resource-related stocks.
On the 29th, the Tokyo stock market rebounded. The revised value of US consumer sentiment raised to the highest level since July 2021, exceeding the market's median forecast.
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The speculation about the Bank of Japan's abolition of the negative interest rate policy was already announced last week.
The actual interest rate hike statement and the remarks of Governor Ueda at yesterday's press conference made it clear that the background of short-term large-scale monetary easing remains unchanged and that there will be no significant interest rate hike.
Due to the overall dovish remarks compared to market expectations, yesterday's Japanese government bond yields skyrocketed and the USD/JPY also surged.
Market expectations for a hawkish FOMC statement by Senior Advisor Bao tonight are gradually rising, and the dot plot to be released tonight is likely to show only 2 interest rate cuts for the year, instead of the market's expectation of 3. The interest rate spread between the US and Japan will not shrink significantly in the near future, and the continued strength of the US dollar and the yen depreciation are also pushing it.
Of course, there are other factors such as short-term manipulation in the foreign exchange market and exhaustion of shorts, but the two mentioned above are still the core logic of the feeling.![]()
The logic that forms the basis of the feeling is still the two mentioned above.
[Bank of Japan Decision Meeting Preview]Moomoo's news seems to have predicted it ahead of time. Amazing.![]()
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
The actual interest rate hike statement and the remarks of Governor Ueda at yesterday's press conference made it clear that the background of short-term large-scale monetary easing remains unchanged and that there will be no significant interest rate hike.
Due to the overall dovish remarks compared to market expectations, yesterday's Japanese government bond yields skyrocketed and the USD/JPY also surged.
Market expectations for a hawkish FOMC statement by Senior Advisor Bao tonight are gradually rising, and the dot plot to be released tonight is likely to show only 2 interest rate cuts for the year, instead of the market's expectation of 3. The interest rate spread between the US and Japan will not shrink significantly in the near future, and the continued strength of the US dollar and the yen depreciation are also pushing it.
Of course, there are other factors such as short-term manipulation in the foreign exchange market and exhaustion of shorts, but the two mentioned above are still the core logic of the feeling.
[Bank of Japan Decision Meeting Preview]Moomoo's news seems to have predicted it ahead of time. Amazing.
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
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The depreciation of the yen progressed, and the dollar-yen exchange rate on the 29th hovered in the $1 = 146 yen range. The background is that the outlook that high interest rates in the US will continue for the time being spread based on Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting, and the interest rate difference between Japan and the US was once again aware.
According to Bloomberg, the Goldman Sachs Group predicts that “if the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish attitude, the yen will add 1 dollar = 155 yen in the next 6 months.” 1 dollar = 155 yen is equivalent to the depreciation level of the yen since 1990/6.
Export-related stocks will benefit from the depreciation of the yen progressing. Already in the first quarter financial results, the depreciation of the yen contributed to a rise in business performance for stocks with a high overseas sales ratio. It can also be seen from the financial results briefing materials of the 10 major companies with high overseas sales ratios that they have greatly benefited from exchange rates.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, out of 68 major companies that disclosed exchange rate effects of financial results for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/6, etc., 90% of companies benefited in the direction of profit increase, and the increase in profit due to exchange accounts for 50% of the overall operating profit increase.
The average exchange rate for financial results for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/6 is 1 dollar = 137 yen...
According to Bloomberg, the Goldman Sachs Group predicts that “if the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish attitude, the yen will add 1 dollar = 155 yen in the next 6 months.” 1 dollar = 155 yen is equivalent to the depreciation level of the yen since 1990/6.
Export-related stocks will benefit from the depreciation of the yen progressing. Already in the first quarter financial results, the depreciation of the yen contributed to a rise in business performance for stocks with a high overseas sales ratio. It can also be seen from the financial results briefing materials of the 10 major companies with high overseas sales ratios that they have greatly benefited from exchange rates.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, out of 68 major companies that disclosed exchange rate effects of financial results for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/6, etc., 90% of companies benefited in the direction of profit increase, and the increase in profit due to exchange accounts for 50% of the overall operating profit increase.
The average exchange rate for financial results for the fiscal year ending 2023/4/6 is 1 dollar = 137 yen...
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To all moomoo users
Thank you for always using the moomoo app.![]()
Are you having trouble gathering information on institutional investors' trading trends, analyst evaluations, etc.? This information is important data that determines investment strategies, and is essential for investors.
With this release, in addition to the overall evaluations of existing analyst evaluations and target stock price predictions,Institutional Investor/ Analyst Evaluation Datahas been added, and it is now possible to grasp it in more detail. Make the most of this powerful tool and explore investment opportunities.![]()
More detailed assessment data: check agencies/analysts' past evaluations at a glance
Newly added“Details”On the tab, Wall Street'sApproximately 250 financial institutionswithOver 4000 analystsEvaluation data contributed by is included. In addition, past evaluations can also be viewed, so you can check how accurate predictions have been made by specific institutional investors and analysts in the past.
Judge analysts' evaluations comprehensively based on hit rate and profit ratio
Of the analysts' pastThe median ratewithAverage rate of returnTo...
Thank you for always using the moomoo app.
Are you having trouble gathering information on institutional investors' trading trends, analyst evaluations, etc.? This information is important data that determines investment strategies, and is essential for investors.
With this release, in addition to the overall evaluations of existing analyst evaluations and target stock price predictions,Institutional Investor/ Analyst Evaluation Datahas been added, and it is now possible to grasp it in more detail. Make the most of this powerful tool and explore investment opportunities.
More detailed assessment data: check agencies/analysts' past evaluations at a glance
Newly added“Details”On the tab, Wall Street'sApproximately 250 financial institutionswithOver 4000 analystsEvaluation data contributed by is included. In addition, past evaluations can also be viewed, so you can check how accurate predictions have been made by specific institutional investors and analysts in the past.
Judge analysts' evaluations comprehensively based on hit rate and profit ratio
Of the analysts' pastThe median ratewithAverage rate of returnTo...
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$Astellas Pharma (4503.JP)$
Since the stock price of Astellas Pharma is coming down nicely, I am watching to see if it's a good time to buy 🌱
【Shopping Criteria】
Stock Price: Around 2000 yen
The reason for this decline is the news from Daiichi Sankyo Pharmaceutical.
Astellas Pharma also experienced a decline as a result.
So, personally, I think this is a chance, and I want to carefully time my entry.
The concern is the pharmaceutical industry, so there is a risk of price fluctuations due to reliance on new drugs. However, it is also an industry with a high company value, so I definitely want to include it in my portfolio. 😆
↑ This happened with Daiichi Sankyo this time, but please be careful as it could happen with Astellas Pharma as well. 📝
Please feel free to use it as a reference. 🌱
$Astellas Pharma (4503.JP)$
$Daiichi Sankyo (4568.JP)$
Since the stock price of Astellas Pharma is coming down nicely, I am watching to see if it's a good time to buy 🌱
【Shopping Criteria】
Stock Price: Around 2000 yen
The reason for this decline is the news from Daiichi Sankyo Pharmaceutical.
Astellas Pharma also experienced a decline as a result.
So, personally, I think this is a chance, and I want to carefully time my entry.
The concern is the pharmaceutical industry, so there is a risk of price fluctuations due to reliance on new drugs. However, it is also an industry with a high company value, so I definitely want to include it in my portfolio. 😆
↑ This happened with Daiichi Sankyo this time, but please be careful as it could happen with Astellas Pharma as well. 📝
Please feel free to use it as a reference. 🌱
$Astellas Pharma (4503.JP)$
$Daiichi Sankyo (4568.JP)$
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