かめたんダヨ
liked
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
Continuity of Trump trade
As expected, Trump wins the American presidential election
It was said to be a close race in the public opinion polls, but
American President Trump's policy, which was a landslide victory when unveiled,
→Tax reduction
→Tariffs
→Regulatory relaxation
Both lead to expectations of inflation.
For the FRB in a phase of interest rate cuts,
Factors that delay the pace of interest rate cuts
And, fundamentally, the surface-level US economy is doing well.
There are two immediate points of focus.
Will the Trump trade (i.e. stock market rally) continue?!
Will there be a rate cut in the December FOMC?
Amid the high likelihood of becoming a triple red...
The continuity of Trump's trade
The future personnel changes by Mr. Trump are important
Bond sell-offs with exhausted factors after the election are also coming
While handling bond sell-offs
Whether entering a new phase of strong interest rate increases
Depends on the headlines of personnel.
Every time Mr. Trump's new policies are announced, the stock market rises as well
and the current trend will continue for the time being.
I consider high interest rates to be predominant 😓
In order for the flow of high bonds to become stronger
Indicator results indicating a slowdown in the American economy are necessary
Until that comes out, I perceive high interest rates to be predominant
* Bra...
Continuity of Trump trade
As expected, Trump wins the American presidential election
It was said to be a close race in the public opinion polls, but
American President Trump's policy, which was a landslide victory when unveiled,
→Tax reduction
→Tariffs
→Regulatory relaxation
Both lead to expectations of inflation.
For the FRB in a phase of interest rate cuts,
Factors that delay the pace of interest rate cuts
And, fundamentally, the surface-level US economy is doing well.
There are two immediate points of focus.
Will the Trump trade (i.e. stock market rally) continue?!
Will there be a rate cut in the December FOMC?
Amid the high likelihood of becoming a triple red...
The continuity of Trump's trade
The future personnel changes by Mr. Trump are important
Bond sell-offs with exhausted factors after the election are also coming
While handling bond sell-offs
Whether entering a new phase of strong interest rate increases
Depends on the headlines of personnel.
Every time Mr. Trump's new policies are announced, the stock market rises as well
and the current trend will continue for the time being.
I consider high interest rates to be predominant 😓
In order for the flow of high bonds to become stronger
Indicator results indicating a slowdown in the American economy are necessary
Until that comes out, I perceive high interest rates to be predominant
* Bra...
Translated
6
3
かめたんダヨ
liked
Thank you Tempus AI.
It's been a while since surpassing 0.5 million yen in a day.
Now I can go home on time without overtime.
It's been a while since surpassing 0.5 million yen in a day.
Now I can go home on time without overtime.
Translated
19
7
かめたんダヨ
liked and commented on
$Global X U.S. Preferred Security ETF (2866.JP)$ The stock price has started to stabilize.
I hesitate to buy more.
I hesitate to buy more.
Translated
5
2
$Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$
I think holding is good, but the upward energy is not quite there~
I think holding is good, but the upward energy is not quite there~
Translated
7
$Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$
Even on a weekly basis, it hasn't formed a complete lower wick.
Activating a little test purchase, haha.
A double bottom may be coming.
Even on a weekly basis, it hasn't formed a complete lower wick.
Activating a little test purchase, haha.
A double bottom may be coming.
Translated
7
$Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$
Really coming down without a lower shadow~
There is a possibility of exceeding 3.5
There is a chance if you wait leisurely
Really coming down without a lower shadow~
There is a possibility of exceeding 3.5
There is a chance if you wait leisurely
Translated
6
かめたんダヨ
liked
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Short-term bonds and 5-year bonds are unpopular, while the consumer confidence index is exceeding expectations, and real estate prices are soaring. Bond investors are still on hold 😓
Considering the concern about an impending interest rate cut, is the lack of popularity in short-term government bonds due to inflows into stocks, cash, and gold? We also hope to see a shift towards long-term bonds! Additionally, the consumer confidence index fell below 100 last month but rose to 102 this time! However, the chart is slowly declining! Real estate is experiencing a rise in property prices due to the high housing loan interest rates driven by policy interest rates, leading to a situation where new properties are not selling and existing property inventory is depleting. Without jumping to conclusions, it may be good to think that a little more time is needed before indicating an interest rate cut 🤔
While the 10-year bond and 30-year bond yields are converging, the short-term bond yield curve is still deepening in the opposite direction. It is advisable to wait and observe until June or July to see the trends in long-term bonds 👀
Despite concerns such as war, high logistics costs, and bank failures stemming from commercial real estate, it's important to remember that risks are inherent in investments for TLTTMF holders. Let's persevere and maintain mental resilience 💪
Considering the concern about an impending interest rate cut, is the lack of popularity in short-term government bonds due to inflows into stocks, cash, and gold? We also hope to see a shift towards long-term bonds! Additionally, the consumer confidence index fell below 100 last month but rose to 102 this time! However, the chart is slowly declining! Real estate is experiencing a rise in property prices due to the high housing loan interest rates driven by policy interest rates, leading to a situation where new properties are not selling and existing property inventory is depleting. Without jumping to conclusions, it may be good to think that a little more time is needed before indicating an interest rate cut 🤔
While the 10-year bond and 30-year bond yields are converging, the short-term bond yield curve is still deepening in the opposite direction. It is advisable to wait and observe until June or July to see the trends in long-term bonds 👀
Despite concerns such as war, high logistics costs, and bank failures stemming from commercial real estate, it's important to remember that risks are inherent in investments for TLTTMF holders. Let's persevere and maintain mental resilience 💪
Translated
8
$iShares US High Dividend ETF (2013.JP)$
The dividends are a bit low.
About 1.9%.
It's in the early stage, so let's expect it after a year!
The dividends are a bit low.
About 1.9%.
It's in the early stage, so let's expect it after a year!
Translated
4
かめたんダヨ
liked
$Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$
Depending on the movement around next week, I wonder if I'll think about it 😉
Depending on the movement around next week, I wonder if I'll think about it 😉
Translated
6