oversold、overboughtWhat do you use as an indicator of?
RSIYaRCI、StochasticsOscillator systems such as these are major, but the divergence rate with the 25-day moving average (25MA) =“25MA divergence rate”It is also often used.
andWhat makes wrong explanations even for professionals such as analysts and commentators is the “25MA divergence rate”It is.
At the 25MA divergence rate
・Overbought by +5% or more
・Oversold at -5% or less
It is commonly referred to as.
Therefore, it is explained that if the divergence with 25MA is +5% or more, it is overbought and will soon be on the ceiling, and if it falls below -5%, it is oversold and it will soon bottom out.
Is that really the case?
For example, consider the following two cases.
A pattern:
It has been in the range for 2 months, and the 25MA divergence rate has remained almost flat from -1% to +1%.
It began to drop rapidly from there, and it has dropped by 4% in the last 2 days...
With this, the 25MA divergence rate is -5%.
B pattern:
It has risen 2,500 yen in the last 2 months, fell 3000 yen, and although it went back 2000 yen, it has dropped 1500 yen. Yesterday today's...

Today 26th is the Bolivan reversal.
I talked about it as the only reversal expectation sign in last night's video, but I also talked about the condition that it is possible to recapture -2σ by a large margin or finish above -2σ on a closing price basis. The price increase is pretty heavy, isn't it?
Although yesterday's 2Q GDP recovered to 38310 yen, it was eventually sold and pushed back to the level of 37750-37850.
Currently, -2σ is around 37780 yen. 37850 as of 9:35. It is expected that the decline will stop once if it continues to be above -2σ.

Today's 25th is the Ichimoku Equilibrium Chart.
Since the last bastion of 38900 yen was split all at once, it hasn't stopped falling like an avalanche.
Even in the Ichimoku equilibrium table, it was at the level of 38150-38300 in the morning, and the clouds passed through to the lower limit, the red turning line dead-crossed the green reference line, and the yellow slow line also dead-crossed the candlestick.
With this, it went from a three-role turnaround to a three-role reversal all at once. It is unusual for 3 to reverse at the same time, and the market price is such a sharp turn.
I don't know where it will stop, and the tactic of going long with reversal expectations hasn't changed after confirming that the decline has stopped.

Today's 24th is the new Stochastics.
As expected, the drop was steep, so the new Stochastics broke the bottom of the lower bar.
It's turning red at the bottom line. It's a long sign when it goes back inside the bar and turns orange.
When this happens, it's almost time to sign the bottom.
However, the long IN only became an upward 5MA cross. An upward 5MA cross indicates a state where the yellow 5MA changes upward and is above the 5MA at the closing price.
If there is no sudden rebound as it is, it's likely to be a good rebound point once, but if you divide 39400 of 50MA by the closing price, it's GO to 39000.
I feel like I can just ride a long one with the intention of not hurrying and give me the tail, or just wait for the return sale.

Today's 23rd is a pullback+volume oscillator.
As I mentioned in the video last night, it was currently the only reversal expectation sign (for me), but the position of the volume oscillator is different from when it appeared on 7/19 last week. On 7/19, the volume oscillator was above the white dot zero line, but today it's below.
Originally, I would like to wait for the 5MA cross, but if it is firmly above 39900-40000 until today's closing price, it will be an immediate reversal.
However, the 25MA that was sold back is 40100. If we don't get past this point, we will immediately retreat.

Current President Biden made a blunder at the debate, and the market, which was almost tiger conscious, switched to Trump trade.
However, when Biden declined the presidential election and Vice President Kamala Harris came to power, the situation completely changed again, and investors were under pressure to review Trump trades as early as possible.
So,As political uncertainty increases, interest rates and exchange rate volatility will definitely riseI will.
In the short term, even if you take positions based on predictions that are too early, you will not succeed. This is clear even if you look at summer prices before past presidential elections.
It was like thisNot swayed by noiseI want to do that.
So, I would like to review the movement of the dollar after President Trump was born in 2016.
This is because the market has already experienced the first term of the Trump administration, so there is a high possibility that it will move in line with it to some extent.
The birth of President Trump and the initial reaction of the dollar
In 2016/11, Trump won the US presidential election. This result was unexpected for many, and the market was temporarily hit by major disruptions. The dollar temporarily depreciated immediately after the election.
The market is against Trump's protectionist policies...

Today's 22nd is 25MA and 50MA.
Although there was a big return from Friday's closing price of 39590 yen, it has moved by dividing 25MA, and it is becoming possible to stand between 25MA for the top and 50MA for the bottom.
And if the 25MA is clearly divided, even if it were to return, this 25MA would become a resistance and fall again... the movement would be as per the textbook.
Whether it can surpass the 25MA, which is at the 40000 yen milestone at an early stage, is becoming important.

Today's 19th is still the 25MA offensive and defensive game. Red line on the chart.
It was sold to 39,820 yen all at once in the morning, and I was surprised that the market would crash as it was, but it quickly rose by 300 yen. it's still a terrible market price lol
As I mentioned in last night's video, 25MA is the biggest point. 39950-40000 is 25 MA points, and I wonder if it can be maintained at today's closing price.
There is a feeling that semiconductors have stopped falling once, so there is a sign that they will hold on even if they are concerned about the weekend. However, starting tomorrow, the Fed members will enter a blackout period. Are you just wary of the possibility that it will move with today's last member comment?

First, take a look at the following graph.
This is the next week after 2022“Two-market total credit balance and credit ratio”This is a graph of
First time in 17 years during the week of 4/19/24Credit purchase balance 4.7 trillion yenIt has broken through. And the latest one that came out yesterday 18thCredit balance of 4 trillion788.2 billion yen even with data for the “24/7/12 week”It is.
This remains quite a lotCredit balance is future sales demandTherefore, the current supply and demand for Japanese stocks is bad.
Institutional investors' arbitrage balance is 2.3 trillion yenThis is also a pretty high level. So once the gears turn in reverse like this one, the items for sale come out all at once.
Up to this point, it's a normal story, but let's take a closer look at what can be read from this graph.
First, take a look at the period in which the blue graph (credit backlog) is on the rise.
5.5 months from 2022/7/22 week to 23/1/6 week, and 5 months from 2023/5/19 to 23/10/27.
And 5 months from the week of 1/12/2024 to the week of 6/21/24.
In all of them, the rise in credit buybacks came to an end in roughly 5 to 5.5 months, right?
well, trust me...