The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting from 18th to 19th. The details of the decision will be announced around noon on the 19th, and a press conference by President Ueda Kazuo is expected to be held in the afternoon. The biggest focus isThe negative interest rate policy that has continued since 2016/2 will be liftedIt's about whether or not.
If the Bank of Japan implements interest rate hikes,Policy change for the first time in 17 years since 07/2It becomes. The spring battle, which Governor Ueda said “would be a big point,” was an average response in the 5% range for the first time in 33 years according to the 1st tally by the coalition on the 15th,Give a strong boost to interest rate hikesI'll do it. In addition, the Bank of JapanMonetary easing measures other than negative interest rates have also been lifted, and moving towards normalization of monetary policy is also viewed as dominantIt's been done. For the stock market,Will the Bank of Japan stop buying ETFsInterest is also drawn to
Interest rate hike forecasts for March surged due to successive positive statements from Governor Ueda and his colleagues
At the time of the decision meeting in January, there was also an intention to confirm the effects of the Noto Peninsula earthquake, and monetary mitigation measures were maintained. Meanwhile, “main opinions” include “requirements for policy revisions, including the cancellation of negative interest rates, are being met” and “it is necessary to begin full-scale discussions about exits,” etc., government...

Next week's points
Japanese stocks are likely to continue falling next week. It is easy for investors to refrain from actively buying ahead of monetary policy decisions by central banks such as the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy revisions are smoldering, and it has been pointed out that the CPI outlook for fiscal year 24 will be raised and that the yield curve control (YCC) policy will be revised again. If the CPI forecast exceeds 2%, the basis for the negative interest rate policy will fade, and speculation about canceling negative interest rates will suddenly rise. Despite such indications, the accommodative attitude has not changed,There is a large probability that the yen will continue to depreciate. At the Bank of Japan meeting and the US FOMCIt is almost certain that monetary policy will remain unchangedSo,Pay attention to what expressions officials use to explain policiesYou should do it.
The US FOMC assumes one more interest rate hike by the end of the year according to the quarterly economic outlook announced after the September meeting, and if interest rate hikes are postponed at this meeting as expected,It should be noted whether interest rate hikes at the December meeting are seen as certainthat's it. Since many employment-related indicators are announced after the middle of the week, such as the US October employment statistics, etc., if the Japan-US monetary policy meeting passes without wind, these...