The first concentrated investment in PLTR was made in 2025, and this week profit-taking was gradually advanced and diversified into other stocks. As of February 14, 2025, the year-to-date profit and loss is about +17%, but over 80% of the position in PLTR was sold for profit, reducing the investment amount to a level that allows for acceptable risk in the medium term.
As topics for personal investment selection, the CPI was higher than market expectations, and with easing expectations, 3% was placed in C, and combined 8% in healthcare-related AI stocks GEHC, TEM, and AIFF. Following the announcement of AI functionality in partnership with AAPL, BABA was incorporated into the portfolio, reaching nearly 4%. Particularly for BABA, since it is the first investment in a Chinese company in a lifetime, it is being closely monitored.
But from this afternoon, there will be a break from investing for another 96 hours because I will be playing Monster Hunter. I'll play until I defeat Arshubeld with 14 Weapons!
$Palantir (PLTR.US)$
$Citigroup (C.US)$
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$
$GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC.US)$
$Tempus AI (TEM.US)$
$Firefly Neuroscience (AIFF.US)$
...
As topics for personal investment selection, the CPI was higher than market expectations, and with easing expectations, 3% was placed in C, and combined 8% in healthcare-related AI stocks GEHC, TEM, and AIFF. Following the announcement of AI functionality in partnership with AAPL, BABA was incorporated into the portfolio, reaching nearly 4%. Particularly for BABA, since it is the first investment in a Chinese company in a lifetime, it is being closely monitored.
But from this afternoon, there will be a break from investing for another 96 hours because I will be playing Monster Hunter. I'll play until I defeat Arshubeld with 14 Weapons!
$Palantir (PLTR.US)$
$Citigroup (C.US)$
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$
$GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC.US)$
$Tempus AI (TEM.US)$
$Firefly Neuroscience (AIFF.US)$
...
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This week, positions in NFLX, CEG, OKLO, WMT, EAT, BK, TEM, RDDT, AEM, HOOD, CLS, TWLO were closed, focusing investments on PLTR. As of February 7, 2025, the year-to-date profit and loss is around +13%.
Since concentrating investments in one stock is considered high risk in the medium to long term, plans for gradually realizing profits are in place. However, as Monster Hunter's OBT2 is starting now, investments will be left aside for the time being, and there is no plan on which stock to invest in.
Wishing everyone a great weekend!
Since concentrating investments in one stock is considered high risk in the medium to long term, plans for gradually realizing profits are in place. However, as Monster Hunter's OBT2 is starting now, investments will be left aside for the time being, and there is no plan on which stock to invest in.
Wishing everyone a great weekend!
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Last week, the decline and recovery of US stocks by DeepSeek significantly affected the entire market. However, the full picture seems to be still in the midst of confusion and chaos regarding development methods, equipment and costs involved, performance, as well as arbitrary responses. Since the last time I wrote about CUDA, I extended it to investment actions based on its position in the AI ecosystem. This time, I will write about what I know, what I think, and my current investment actions as the key points of DeepSeek becoming a hot topic.
What I am particularly interested in due to the widespread recognition of DeepSeek this time are two techniques that DeepSeek uses for AI model development: 'Distillation' and 'PTX'.
First, in AI model development, 'Distillation' refers to the technique of transferring knowledge from a large model (teacher model) to a smaller model (student model). This is generally used to maintain performance close to the original model while reducing computational costs.
Mechanism of Distillation
1. Training of Teacher Model
...
What I am particularly interested in due to the widespread recognition of DeepSeek this time are two techniques that DeepSeek uses for AI model development: 'Distillation' and 'PTX'.
First, in AI model development, 'Distillation' refers to the technique of transferring knowledge from a large model (teacher model) to a smaller model (student model). This is generally used to maintain performance close to the original model while reducing computational costs.
Mechanism of Distillation
1. Training of Teacher Model
...
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First of all, as of January 28, 2025, the year-to-date profit and loss is around 1% positive, but the impact of DeepSeek on US AI and data center related stocks on January 27 was significant. Investments in AI and data center related stocks from 2024, such as NVDA, were liquidated for the time being.
Although semiconductor stocks such as NVDA, AVGO, ARM had significant unrealized gains at the end of 2024, profits were gradually taken to invest in other stocks. By the end of January 4th week, positions were significantly reduced. However, after the information about DeepSeek became widely known on the 27th, the related stocks all fell, confirming the liquidation of all positions. Additionally, around 80% of Energy stocks with high expectations for data center demand, such as CEG and VST, were profitably closed for similar reasons. It is believed that in the very short term, there is a possibility of buying back any stock, but if H800 can achieve performance equal to or surpassing OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google's generative AI, the story of the significant increase in demand for the latest powerful GPUs and ASICs, as well as electrical requirements, may be reconsidered, and the cost-effectiveness of these investments may become clearer in the near future. Considering that it is open source, there may be a need to revise the investment selection policy based on its capabilities, demand, country risks, etc., and I would like to conduct sufficient information collection, analysis, and stock selection. There is also a possibility that the positioning of META's Llama will change further, and TEM is held since the beginning of 2025, although recent profits have been taken for TSLA and VRT, the interest in AI related stocks remains.
Although semiconductor stocks such as NVDA, AVGO, ARM had significant unrealized gains at the end of 2024, profits were gradually taken to invest in other stocks. By the end of January 4th week, positions were significantly reduced. However, after the information about DeepSeek became widely known on the 27th, the related stocks all fell, confirming the liquidation of all positions. Additionally, around 80% of Energy stocks with high expectations for data center demand, such as CEG and VST, were profitably closed for similar reasons. It is believed that in the very short term, there is a possibility of buying back any stock, but if H800 can achieve performance equal to or surpassing OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google's generative AI, the story of the significant increase in demand for the latest powerful GPUs and ASICs, as well as electrical requirements, may be reconsidered, and the cost-effectiveness of these investments may become clearer in the near future. Considering that it is open source, there may be a need to revise the investment selection policy based on its capabilities, demand, country risks, etc., and I would like to conduct sufficient information collection, analysis, and stock selection. There is also a possibility that the positioning of META's Llama will change further, and TEM is held since the beginning of 2025, although recent profits have been taken for TSLA and VRT, the interest in AI related stocks remains.
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Since there was a request for a post about CUDA last time, I will write about what I know about CUDA, peripheral knowledge and insights, considerations for investment based on that, and current positions.
Many companies choose NVDA's GPU for AI development even if the product price is high, and the background of using CUDA is the technical advantage and the completeness of the ecosystem of the company.Technical AdvantageandComprehensive EcosystemThere is. I will list the reasons and specific examples below.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
1. Technical superiority of NVDA and its applications
1-1. Optimized parallel computing with CUDA.
CUDA is NVDA's proprietary platform for efficiently harnessing GPU parallel computing. Many AI frameworks (e.g. TensorFlow, PyTorch) utilize CUDA for optimization, leading to significant performance differences.
Specific Examples
自然言語処理（NLP）: ChatGPTのような大規模モデルのトレーニングや推論は非常に計算負荷が高いが、CUDAに対応したNVDAのGPUを利用することで、高速な処理が可能になる。
生成AI（Stable Diffusion, DAL...
Many companies choose NVDA's GPU for AI development even if the product price is high, and the background of using CUDA is the technical advantage and the completeness of the ecosystem of the company.Technical AdvantageandComprehensive EcosystemThere is. I will list the reasons and specific examples below.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
1. Technical superiority of NVDA and its applications
1-1. Optimized parallel computing with CUDA.
CUDA is NVDA's proprietary platform for efficiently harnessing GPU parallel computing. Many AI frameworks (e.g. TensorFlow, PyTorch) utilize CUDA for optimization, leading to significant performance differences.
Specific Examples
自然言語処理（NLP）: ChatGPTのような大規模モデルのトレーニングや推論は非常に計算負荷が高いが、CUDAに対応したNVDAのGPUを利用することで、高速な処理が可能になる。
生成AI（Stable Diffusion, DAL...
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After the discussion the other day, bit by bit, the number of followers increased by about 200, so I feel like having another discussion. Feel free to make comments.
This time, I bought a lot of AVGO at the end of last year, so I will expose my thoughts on the relationship between ASIC as a processing unit, NVDA's GPU, INTC's CPU, and also a bit about QPU.
To make it easy to imagine, I will compare these three entities to modes of transportation. In terms of energy costs like Electrical Utilities, and their complementary relationship, the CPU is like walking, suitable for flexible processes like moving on various surfaces or going to the nearest station, but it is costly for the same or simple tasks. ASIC is like Railroads, it requires costs to lay down dedicated tracks, but cost is low for performing the same tasks. GPU is like bicycles, lower cost and able to cover the same distance easily compared to walking, but it has lower versatility as a method for rough terrains compared to the CPU.
1. CPU (Walks・High versatility, High cost)
CPUs have high versatility and can handle various processes...
This time, I bought a lot of AVGO at the end of last year, so I will expose my thoughts on the relationship between ASIC as a processing unit, NVDA's GPU, INTC's CPU, and also a bit about QPU.
To make it easy to imagine, I will compare these three entities to modes of transportation. In terms of energy costs like Electrical Utilities, and their complementary relationship, the CPU is like walking, suitable for flexible processes like moving on various surfaces or going to the nearest station, but it is costly for the same or simple tasks. ASIC is like Railroads, it requires costs to lay down dedicated tracks, but cost is low for performing the same tasks. GPU is like bicycles, lower cost and able to cover the same distance easily compared to walking, but it has lower versatility as a method for rough terrains compared to the CPU.
1. CPU (Walks・High versatility, High cost)
CPUs have high versatility and can handle various processes...
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.The market, especially the decline in American stocks, has temporarily subsided, prompting a gradual shift of funds from cash to risk assets.
Currently, the profit and loss by asset holdings shows significant gains in American stocks↑, Japanese stocks↓, US bonds↓, and emerging market bonds↑, resulting in an overall positive state of a few percent since the beginning of 2025.
In 2024, the return of American stocks significantly outperformed others, with American stocks accounting for 95% of the assets at one point. However, with the recent rise and considering the slightly overvalued levels from a historical perspective, adjustments have been made to the proportion of American stocks in the portfolio.
With the interest rates in the USA also at a very high level, and the continuous decline in US bonds relative to that, they are holding as part of their assets as a counter to US stocks.
On the other hand, looking beyond the USA, in our country, Japanese government bonds are excluded from consideration as an investment destination under the recent low interest rate and high inflation environment. However, companies that expand business in Japanese yen with low interest rates and benefit from high foreign currencies consider it a very advantageous situation, so they invest in some individual companies rather than indices.
In addition, companies outside the USA are cautiously observing the upcoming inauguration of President Trump, and some are taking measures like adjusting their portfolios to avoid potential risks.
Currently, the profit and loss by asset holdings shows significant gains in American stocks↑, Japanese stocks↓, US bonds↓, and emerging market bonds↑, resulting in an overall positive state of a few percent since the beginning of 2025.
In 2024, the return of American stocks significantly outperformed others, with American stocks accounting for 95% of the assets at one point. However, with the recent rise and considering the slightly overvalued levels from a historical perspective, adjustments have been made to the proportion of American stocks in the portfolio.
With the interest rates in the USA also at a very high level, and the continuous decline in US bonds relative to that, they are holding as part of their assets as a counter to US stocks.
On the other hand, looking beyond the USA, in our country, Japanese government bonds are excluded from consideration as an investment destination under the recent low interest rate and high inflation environment. However, companies that expand business in Japanese yen with low interest rates and benefit from high foreign currencies consider it a very advantageous situation, so they invest in some individual companies rather than indices.
In addition, companies outside the USA are cautiously observing the upcoming inauguration of President Trump, and some are taking measures like adjusting their portfolios to avoid potential risks.
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In 2024, there was a significant profit, but in terms of total assets, as of January 14, 2025, it started from a negative position for 2025. Although gradually taking profits from last year's unrealized gains to slightly increase the cash ratio, the total return is also sinking into negative territory due to the overall downward trend in the US stock market.
Looking at individual cases, one of the major profit-taking stocks was first AVGO. The company occupied up to 70% of the total assets as profits continued from the end of last year's financial statements and guidance. However, after progressing profit-taking since last year, around $24,000 in profit-taking at the beginning of 2025 led to the liquidation of all positions, currently having no position. Considering that there are no particular issues with the performance outlook, once the cash ratio adjustment is completed, there is a possibility of reentry.
$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$
The next major profit-taking stock was TSLA. Monitoring the progress of the US presidential election, the said stock was bought into while occupying up to 15% of the portfolio at its peak. However, in 2025, around $23,000 in profit-taking led to the liquidation of all positions. When it comes to the company in question, rather than the current visible performance, considering the relationship between Trump and Ma...
Looking at individual cases, one of the major profit-taking stocks was first AVGO. The company occupied up to 70% of the total assets as profits continued from the end of last year's financial statements and guidance. However, after progressing profit-taking since last year, around $24,000 in profit-taking at the beginning of 2025 led to the liquidation of all positions, currently having no position. Considering that there are no particular issues with the performance outlook, once the cash ratio adjustment is completed, there is a possibility of reentry.
$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$
The next major profit-taking stock was TSLA. Monitoring the progress of the US presidential election, the said stock was bought into while occupying up to 15% of the portfolio at its peak. However, in 2025, around $23,000 in profit-taking led to the liquidation of all positions. When it comes to the company in question, rather than the current visible performance, considering the relationship between Trump and Ma...
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Now that the profit and loss for the period from January 1 to December 31, 2024 has been finalized, I want to summarize it.
First of all, what is clear is that achieving a return of +186% (+52.78 million yen) with U.S. individual stocks alone was excessive, and although it turned out well in hindsight, I am convinced that it was completely non-reproducible. The amount I had invested in U.S. stocks at the beginning of the period was less than one-tenth of my current total assets, including this year's profit. Simply put, I was making investments beyond the generally accepted risk tolerance level, on a temporary basis.
However, the main reason for this decision was the belief that from the beginning of the year to the summer, the risk-return of NVDA far exceeded that of any other assets. At that time, NVDA was in a state where ① its products were competitive, ② its market was rapidly growing, ③ its stock price was very undervalued, ④ its financial health was significantly stronger than other U.S. companies accessing that market with high interest rates, and ⑤ the U.S. stocks themselves were facing significant devaluation in cash due to high inflation from monetary easing, ⑥ there were no indicators supporting a rate cut by the U.S., and ⑦ discussion of raising interest rates in Japan was not on the table for a certain period. As a result, the more I analyzed the situation, the more I was prompted to sell Japanese yen assets...
First of all, what is clear is that achieving a return of +186% (+52.78 million yen) with U.S. individual stocks alone was excessive, and although it turned out well in hindsight, I am convinced that it was completely non-reproducible. The amount I had invested in U.S. stocks at the beginning of the period was less than one-tenth of my current total assets, including this year's profit. Simply put, I was making investments beyond the generally accepted risk tolerance level, on a temporary basis.
However, the main reason for this decision was the belief that from the beginning of the year to the summer, the risk-return of NVDA far exceeded that of any other assets. At that time, NVDA was in a state where ① its products were competitive, ② its market was rapidly growing, ③ its stock price was very undervalued, ④ its financial health was significantly stronger than other U.S. companies accessing that market with high interest rates, and ⑤ the U.S. stocks themselves were facing significant devaluation in cash due to high inflation from monetary easing, ⑥ there were no indicators supporting a rate cut by the U.S., and ⑦ discussion of raising interest rates in Japan was not on the table for a certain period. As a result, the more I analyzed the situation, the more I was prompted to sell Japanese yen assets...
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Previously, we conducted an overview of the overall profit and loss as of December 9, 2024, focusing on general sentiment and analyzing the stocks that generated profits. This time, I would like to reflect on the losses incurred over the past year as of December 21, 2024.
Firstly, the top loss-making stock was SMCI with a loss of approximately $18,700. I believe I was not the only one who considered SMCI alongside NVDA as the top players during the AI-related investment boom in the first half of the year, as of December 21, 2024. I still believe that the substantial investment in training facilities for AI at the time occupied a significant position in the movement surrounding AI, justifying the concentrated investment in this stock even at present. However, accounting scandals within the company posed a significant risk factor that could influence stock prices, even to the extent of the possibility of market exit, underscoring the high risk of a portfolio heavily reliant on a few companies. Following the loss realization in May, the continuous decline in the stock price raises questions not only about the possibility of delisting but also about potential audit-related changes. Therefore, thorough examination is necessary until all extraneous uncertainties concerning the company are resolved.
Firstly, the top loss-making stock was SMCI with a loss of approximately $18,700. I believe I was not the only one who considered SMCI alongside NVDA as the top players during the AI-related investment boom in the first half of the year, as of December 21, 2024. I still believe that the substantial investment in training facilities for AI at the time occupied a significant position in the movement surrounding AI, justifying the concentrated investment in this stock even at present. However, accounting scandals within the company posed a significant risk factor that could influence stock prices, even to the extent of the possibility of market exit, underscoring the high risk of a portfolio heavily reliant on a few companies. Following the loss realization in May, the continuous decline in the stock price raises questions not only about the possibility of delisting but also about potential audit-related changes. Therefore, thorough examination is necessary until all extraneous uncertainties concerning the company are resolved.
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さとこじ OP しょしんクマ : Thank you for your comment, Shoshin Kumasan.
さとこじ OP ビスコッティ : It seems that profits are being gradually secured. Since there are people who might find it difficult to understand, perhaps it would be better to stop posting updates on the progress.
さとこじ OP exera : Thank you for your comment, exera.
さとこじ OP おねご : So you play Monster Hunter too! Let's definitely play together from the 28th, disbanding at 11:30 PM after the USA opening, while exchanging investment information as well!
さとこじ OP めいちゃんの羊 : According to the graph and the text, the year-to-date profit is about 17%, but which part is the question about?