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Since the market anticipates that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will suggest an imminent interest rate cut cycle at the FOMC meeting on the 31st, US bond prices have continued to rise recently. The data shows that the Bloomberg US Treasury Index, which is the main indicator of US bonds, rose 1.3% this month due to the recent surge, boosting returns from the end of April to about 3.9%.
As the Fed's interest rate cut approaches, the market is showing movements linked to interest rate cuts. In general, demand for financing is highSmall caps and biotech companiesIt is easily affected by interest rates, and it is easy to benefit from interest rate cuts. Also, in the early stages of interest rate cutsU.S. BondsThe probability that it will rise is very high, and the decline in real yieldgoldAlso forGood materialIt becomes. Which ETFs will benefit from interest rate cuts?
●US medium- and long-term bond ETF
In the early stages of interest rate cutsU.S. BondsIt is said that the probability that it will rise is extremely high. Also, long-term bonds are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than short-term bonds. This is because long-term bonds pay fixed interest over the future, so changes in interest rates have a larger impact on long-term cash flow. Long-term US bond ETF TLT is sensitive to changes in interest rates, and when interest rates rise, the TLT price falls...
As the Fed's interest rate cut approaches, the market is showing movements linked to interest rate cuts. In general, demand for financing is highSmall caps and biotech companiesIt is easily affected by interest rates, and it is easy to benefit from interest rate cuts. Also, in the early stages of interest rate cutsU.S. BondsThe probability that it will rise is very high, and the decline in real yieldgoldAlso forGood materialIt becomes. Which ETFs will benefit from interest rate cuts?
●US medium- and long-term bond ETF
In the early stages of interest rate cutsU.S. BondsIt is said that the probability that it will rise is extremely high. Also, long-term bonds are more sensitive to changes in interest rates than short-term bonds. This is because long-term bonds pay fixed interest over the future, so changes in interest rates have a larger impact on long-term cash flow. Long-term US bond ETF TLT is sensitive to changes in interest rates, and when interest rates rise, the TLT price falls...
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![Which ETFs are about to benefit from a reduction in US interest rates?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240731/8fdac9686e8eee3b36276fd1847ed276.png/thumb?area=105&is_public=true)
![Which ETFs are about to benefit from a reduction in US interest rates?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240731/4138646b6904f7f951adb1963d00c3ce.png/thumb?area=105&is_public=true)
![Which ETFs are about to benefit from a reduction in US interest rates?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240425/c3f0aeae25cc4bf947fff7f33d0f6a3a.png/thumb?area=105&is_public=true)
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August 9, 2024US 10-Year Bond YieldIs the closing price3.942%I was able to draw with it.
Data showing that the US service industry is doing well was announced and soldU.S. Long-Term BondsIt was purchased on 8/9.
U.S. Long-Term BondsThe fact that it will be bought indicates that concerns about economic deceleration have accelerated.
Announced at 10:30 on 2024/8/9China CPI (YoY)The result is 0.2% of the previous month0.5%It was.
It was announced at 15:00 on the same dayGerman CPI (YoY)The result is 2.3% of the previous month2.3%It was.
German CPI (YoY)It has been trending between 2.2% and 2.4% since 2024/4.
Germany Unemployment RateThere has been an upward trend since 2022/6. According to the latest data for July, it is 6.0%.
While Germany sees a sense of bottoming out in CPIunemployment rateis rising.
unemployment rateIt is a general theory that prices fall when they rise, but prices have stopped falling.
Germany Unemployment RateThe rise is seen as a slightly dangerous trend, but if you go back in time, GermanyCPIwithunemployment rateLinkage is poor.
German GDP70% is in the service industry and 20% is in the manufacturing industry.German CPIIf you look at the breakdown, the service industry is doing well...
Data showing that the US service industry is doing well was announced and soldU.S. Long-Term BondsIt was purchased on 8/9.
U.S. Long-Term BondsThe fact that it will be bought indicates that concerns about economic deceleration have accelerated.
Announced at 10:30 on 2024/8/9China CPI (YoY)The result is 0.2% of the previous month0.5%It was.
It was announced at 15:00 on the same dayGerman CPI (YoY)The result is 2.3% of the previous month2.3%It was.
German CPI (YoY)It has been trending between 2.2% and 2.4% since 2024/4.
Germany Unemployment RateThere has been an upward trend since 2022/6. According to the latest data for July, it is 6.0%.
While Germany sees a sense of bottoming out in CPIunemployment rateis rising.
unemployment rateIt is a general theory that prices fall when they rise, but prices have stopped falling.
Germany Unemployment RateThe rise is seen as a slightly dangerous trend, but if you go back in time, GermanyCPIwithunemployment rateLinkage is poor.
German GDP70% is in the service industry and 20% is in the manufacturing industry.German CPIIf you look at the breakdown, the service industry is doing well...
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
Bonds are bought if the economic outlook is bad, so if the 10-year interest rate on US bonds falls (a situation where government bonds are safe assets are being bought), it seems that eventually the Fed will cut interest rates to improve the economy. It seems like you can see the future of the economy by looking at 10-year government bonds ✨
Interest rates on 10-year government bonds fell, recession, and eventually the Fed cut interest rates.
Interest rates on 10-year government bonds rose, the economy boomed, and eventually the Fed raised interest rates.
Bonds are bought if the economic outlook is bad, so if the 10-year interest rate on US bonds falls (a situation where government bonds are safe assets are being bought), it seems that eventually the Fed will cut interest rates to improve the economy. It seems like you can see the future of the economy by looking at 10-year government bonds ✨
Interest rates on 10-year government bonds fell, recession, and eventually the Fed cut interest rates.
Interest rates on 10-year government bonds rose, the economy boomed, and eventually the Fed raised interest rates.
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$Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$ A financial results briefing for the 1st quarter of fiscal year 2024 is scheduled to be held on 2024/8/7 (Wednesday) at 4:00 p.m. Japan time. If you would like to watch it,“reservation”Click on the button.
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![](https://usliveimg.moomoo.com/2024073111135562de56b8.png/thumb)
Japan Telecommunication Conference for the first half of 2024
Aug 7 02:00
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$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$
If you look at chart quarter foot stochastics, I think it's still high. In order to make a profit over the long term, I chose a lower price buying strategy with Quarter Foot Stochastics ✨
If you look at chart quarter foot stochastics, I think it's still high. In order to make a profit over the long term, I chose a lower price buying strategy with Quarter Foot Stochastics ✨
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Berkshire nearly halves Apple stock holdings — cash holdings at record high
2024/8/4 11:30 JST (some excerpts)
Cash holdings increased to a record high of 276.9 billion dollars in the April-June period
Berkshire oversold shares worth 75.5 billion dollars in the April-June period
The investment and insurance company Berkshire Hathaway, led by famous investor Warren Buffett, cut Apple stock holdings by nearly 50% as part of a large-scale stock sale in April-June (second quarter). As a result, Mr. Buffett's cash holdings increased to a record high of 276.9 billion dollars (about 40 trillion570 billion yen).
According to the announcement on the 3rd, Berkshire oversold shares worth 75.5 billion dollars as a whole for the April-June period. Operating profit was 11.6 billion dollars, up from 10 billion dollars in the same period last year.
2024/8/4 11:30 JST (some excerpts)
Cash holdings increased to a record high of 276.9 billion dollars in the April-June period
Berkshire oversold shares worth 75.5 billion dollars in the April-June period
The investment and insurance company Berkshire Hathaway, led by famous investor Warren Buffett, cut Apple stock holdings by nearly 50% as part of a large-scale stock sale in April-June (second quarter). As a result, Mr. Buffett's cash holdings increased to a record high of 276.9 billion dollars (about 40 trillion570 billion yen).
According to the announcement on the 3rd, Berkshire oversold shares worth 75.5 billion dollars as a whole for the April-June period. Operating profit was 11.6 billion dollars, up from 10 billion dollars in the same period last year.
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It was written in the Apple analysis article, but when the gross margin ratio is high, that is, the cost is low, so it seems like a competitive advantage. Since labor costs and research and development expenses can also be increased, we decided to invest in companies with high gross margins. Of course, ESG is also important.
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