It's past 10:00 on the 13th, but it suddenly dropped. It fell below 38,500 in the futures market.
Now, as for the Nikkei VI during this time, it has not been rising while remaining negative compared to the previous day.
It was high in the morning... but even after a sudden drop of over 300 yen, the VI is hardly rising.
So, it feels like the excessive supply and demand in the short term is being resolved rather than a fundamental downward trend.
In fact, the arbitrage long position has been rapidly resolved by crossing over SQ.
As of March 1st, the long position amount was over 2 trillion yen, and it should have exceeded 2.1 trillion yen as of March 6th.
Currently, an amount over 2 trillion yen and a share quantity of over 0.75 billion shares are overheated points, and it was a situation where it went too far just before SQ. In that trend, 0.2 billion shares were resolved by crossing over SQ.
Therefore, I think the decrease from the previous day's SQ was mainly due to an excessive demand correction. The trigger for this was the Bank of Japan's negative interest rate removal in March.
Therefore, if the demand and supply improvement continues this week and breaks below 38,000, and if it stops falling in the 37,000 yen range, I also think it's good to buy.
On the contrary, if the negative interest rate removal is postponed in March...

Mothers is losing again today.
Bouncing off at 715 points and going down again.
Go back to the triangle and start over.
If it comes back today, it will be in a form where resistance can work.
The battle at the edge of the wall continues.
The outcome of the match is unknown until it is completely resolved.
Has the Nikkei Average and TOPIX already turned around?
No one knows if it's a pullback or a downward trend.