The labor market is beginning to show signs of deceleration as interest rate cuts begin to begin.
The four-week moving average of the number of new US unemployment insurance claims has risen to 207,750, and it has recorded a significant increase since November last year.
The Federal Reserve faces the risk of leading to an unnecessary recession due to delays in the start of interest rate cuts.
However, considering that long-term bonds are being bought due to concerns about a recession, this is a tailwind for the stock market.

Announced at 0:00 on 2024/3/6ISM Non-Manufacturing Business IndexIs the result52.6It was.
What is this indexBusiness ConfidenceAs you can see, below 50 is a recessionary trend, and above 50 is a booming trend.
This time it was above 50, but it was below the previous 53.4.
If you look at it from a macro perspective, the decline that began at the end of 2021 has come to an end,stoveWhat it has become is now.
What is the lower value
Announced on 2023/1/649.2
Announced on 2023/6/550.3
Announced on 2024/1/550.5
The lower price is gradually being rounded up.
Upward pressure is strong, and US service industry personnel are dealing with the economysanguineI can say that.
The main reason for the current decline in figuresEmployment IndexThis is a decrease. The pressure to raise wages that has continued until now is being mitigated (softened). The number of jobs is declining.
Overall, the majority of people in charge of companies respond to the economysanguineIt is.
It was announced on 2024/3/6Number of ADP employees (month-on-month)Is the result140,000 peopleIt was.
From the previous 111,000 peopleASCENSIONI did.
If you take a look at the breakdown of the data
Leisure and Hospitality:41,000 people
construction:28,000 people
Trade/Transportation/Public Utilities:24,000 people
These 3 industries are mainly doing well.
Hire...

When it comes to bank stocks, assets completely change depending on how far you can expect debt loss provisions, so it's not good to stick too much to PBR.

According to the July 31st edition of the Nikkei, there is growing global concern about the Bank of Japan's policy adjustment. This is because the 500 trillion yen (about 3.5 trillion dollars) in easing funds that flowed overseas in the low interest rate environment could find their way back to Japan. While the Bank of Japan's monetary easing policy has long played a role in stabilizing the financial markets, its actions now might become a major factor shaking the global market.
Nick Timiraos, a writer for The Wall Street Journal, quoted a former Federal Reserve Board (FRB) official and tweeted that the Bank of Japan's policy adjustment is a "significant change that affects the world."
In fact, the global bond market was very unstable on the 28th. The yield on Australia's 10-year bond rose temporarily by 0.55 points, and the yields on the 10-year bonds of the Philippines and Malaysia rose by 0.1 points and 0.035 points, respectively.
Why does Japan's adjustment policy have an impact on countries across the sea? According to the Ministry of Finance's data on external assets and liabilities, domestic investors' overseas portfolio investments reached 531 trillion yen by the end of 2022. Japan has a large amount of overseas assets, and changes in its policies can have a ripple effect on other countries.

The weakening of the yen, high material costs, high labor costs led by the government (pressure from wage increases), high dividend pressure from overseas shareholders, and the future economic trend are negative.
There is a risk that the stock price may transition to a downward trend due to some catalyst.