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The accuracy rate of predicting the USA economic downturn is 100%ofSAM economic downturn indicators(※, 'Same Rule' index indicators)Decreased from 0.57 in August to 0.50 in September.September's data released on October 4thImproved to 4.1% unemployment rate.This was due to the improvement.Concerns about economic downturn were alleviated.October 4th saw a risk-on trend of rising stocks and falling bond prices. Among them,The rise of lagging semiconductor stocks was noticeable.。
(※The Saam Recession Indicator was devised by Mr. Saam, a former FRB economist, known as the "Saam Rule." If the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate exceeds the minimum of the 3-month moving average of the past 12 months by 0.50 percentage points, it suggests a recession. The past recession prediction rate was 100%. Note that the announcement of the US unemployment rate is made on the first Friday of every month.)
「Saam Rule Indicator and SOX Index
When checking the year-to-date movements of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index), it can be observed that since the Conference Board Leading Economic Index first exceeded 0.4 in June this year, the SOX Index has adjusted. There is caution about reaching 0.50 the following month (caution for the onset of an economic downturn) for semiconductor stocks...

Following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement of resignation, the election will be officially announced on September 12th.It has been reported that 11 people have declared their candidacy or expressed their intention to run in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election to be held on the 27th, resulting in a fierce and competitive contest.It has been reported that 11 people have declared their candidacy or expressed their intention to run in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election to be held on the 27th, resulting in a fierce and competitive contest.It is anticipated that the stock prices and macroeconomics will be significantly impacted by the economic policies of the next prime minister.It is anticipated that the stock prices and macroeconomics will be significantly impacted by the economic policies of the next prime minister.
Based on past reports and statements, we will analyze the stances of each candidate on fiscal policies and the Bank of Japan's tightening policy.
List of candidates for the party leadership election
(In parentheses are the approval ratings from the opinion poll "Person suitable for the next LDP leader" conducted by Japan Economic Newspaper and Television Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd)
<Already declared candidacy>
Kono TaroDigital minister (7%)
Takayuki KobayashiFormer Minister of Economic Security (8%)
Shigeru IshibaFormer Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (18%)
<Candidacy prospects (based on reports)>
Shinjiro KoizumiFormer Minister of the Environment (23%)
Lin FangzhengChief Cabinet Secretary (2%)
Moomoo ToshimitsuSecretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)
<Desire to run for candidacy (based on reports)>
Ken SaitoMinister of Economy, Trade and Industry (1%)
Sanae TakaichiMinister of Economic Security (11%)
Katsunobu KatoFormer Chief Cabinet Secretary (1%)
Yoko KamikawaForeign Minister (6%)
Sei Noda...

I will explain market information before and after the Tokyo stock market close, individual stocks with prominent movements today, and market price forecasts for next week.
*This program does not solicit investment or other action.
Please use your own judgment when making the final investment decision.