Market trends hinted at by concerns over Nvidia's GPU supply shortage and the timing of the next-generation models.
November 22, 2024
Market trends hinted at by concerns over Nvidia's GPU supply shortage and the timing of the next-generation models.
In its recent earnings reports, Nvidia demonstrated record-breaking results with revenue increasing by 94% year-on-year to $35 billion, and net profit increasing by 109% to $19.3 billion. At the same time, there were warnings of a potential shortage of gaming GPUs during the holiday season. This is believed to be due to a concentration of demand for AI and datacenter products, as well as production adjustments for the RTX 40 series in preparation for the RTX 50 series.
Supply constraints on the RTX 40 series are particularly prominent in the higher-end models, with concerns about price increases, while the trends in the consumer market are being watched. The announcement of the next-generation GPU is forecasted for CES 2025 and is expected to be key to Nvidia's new strategy.
A complete view of market shifts seen in Nvidia's revenue structure.
In Nvidia's recent earnings report, the datacenter business accounted for 87.7% of the company's total revenue, recording $30.7 billion. This includes the H100/H200 and Blackwell...

Nvidia's CEO is focusing on Google's NotebookLM and the future of AI inference
November 22, 2024
Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia, has shown strong interest in Google's NotebookLM. NotebookLM is gaining attention as a multifunctional AI tool for document summarization, question generation, and voice conversation generation, and he describes using this tool "thoroughly." Behind this is the evolution of AI technology and the importance of "inference." AI inference is the process of making realistic predictions and decisions after training the model, and Huang positions this as the "key to AI success."
Nvidia views the expansion of AI inference demand as a new growth opportunity and is accelerating the production of its latest GPU, "Blackwell." While the company has dominated the AI training market so far, it is now looking towards the increasing demand in the inference field. Nvidia's movements, leading the evolution of the AI market, will serve as a crucial guide for the direction of technological innovation in the industry moving forward.
Google NotebookLM has the potential to revolutionize AI utilization.

Information about Nvidia's next-generation GPU 'RTX 5070 Ti' has leaked, indicating the possibility of a high-performance model with a power consumption of 300W. November 22, 2024 (excerpt).
Detailed specs information about Nvidia's next-generation graphics card 'RTX 5070 Ti' has been leaked. This card is said to be a high-performance model with 8960 CUDA cores and 70 streaming multiprocessors.
Based on internal names 'PG147' and 'SKU 60', it is suggested that the same reference board as RTX 5080 could be used. There are also predictions that power consumption could reach 300W, indicating higher performance compared to previous models.
This information comes from a reputable hardware leaker, and while it is credible, the final product specifications and name may still be subject to change. With the current RTX 40 series entering production cutbacks, there is growing speculation that Nvidia will announce a new lineup at CES, drawing interest in the timing of the next-generation GPU announcement. Official information is eagerly awaited, but if the leaked specs are true, it will undoubtedly be a product with significant impact on the industry.

[Market Eye] Stocks: The Nikkei average rebounded in the morning session, with buying back of technology stocks.November 22, 2024, 11:36 AM GMT+9
The Nikkei average rebounded in the morning session with buying back of technology stocks.
In the morning session of the Tokyo stock market, the Nikkei average rebounded to 38,415.32 yen, up 389.15 yen from the previous trading day. Buying back of technology stocks, which had a significant negative contribution to the index until the previous day, led to the rise in the Nikkei average, approaching a temporary increase of 400 yen.
[Market Eye] Interest Rates: In the morning session, government bond futures rebounded, initially selling off before turning around. Long-term interest rates fell to 1.085%.November 22nd, 11:26 AM GMT+9
Government bond futures rebounded in the morning session, initially selling off before turning around. Long-term interest rates fell to 1.085%.
The key contract for government bond futures for the December contract, closed the morning trading session with a slight rebound at 142.65 yen, 4 sen higher than the previous trading day. It turned around after initial selling off. The yield on newly issued 10-year government bonds (long-term interest rates) fell by 1.0 basis points to 1.085%.
Japanese stocks are expected to rebound, boosted by strong U.S. employment indicators and economic expectations - buying in exports, materials, and financial sectors.November 22, 2024 11:10 JST
Bond prices fall, cautious of rising US interest rates and early BOJ rate hikes - battle of 1.1% long-term interest ratesNovember 22, 2024...

EU to start investigation into US Amazon next year for potential violations of the Digital Markets Act = Sources familiar with the matter.
November 22, 2024 10:14 AM GMT+9
The European Commission of the European Union is strengthening suspicions that US Amazon.com has violated the Digital Markets Act (DMA) by favoring its own brand products, and is expected to formally start an investigation next year. Several sources familiar with the matter revealed this to Reuters.
The DMA, a law aimed at restraining the market dominance of major IT companies, allows for companies under investigation to face fines of up to 10% of their annual revenue worldwide if violations are confirmed.
Spanish Ms. Teresa Ribera will take office next month, replacing Vice-Chair Bethier who leads the competition policy. According to sources, it is expected that Ms. Ribera will make decisions on the start date of the European Commission's investigation within the next few months.

U.S. Auto Group Requests Trump to Relieve Fuel Efficiency Regulations and Respond to Chinese Subsidies
2024/11/22 10:21 JST (some excerpts)
Facing unprecedented geopolitical and market pressures — AAI top
The next administration may also target California's right to enact stricter fuel efficiency regulations
The American Automobile Innovation Association (AAA), an industry group representing major automobile manufacturers such as US General Motors (GM), Ford Motor Company, Toyota Motor Corporation, and Honda, requested US President Trump to relax requirements related to improving fuel efficiency of automobiles and protect the industry from “unfair” practices by China.
In a letter dated 12th addressed to Mr. Trump published on the 21st, AAI President John Bozella stated that automobile manufacturers are facing “headwinds” such as “electric vehicles (EVs) that have received huge subsidies imported from China and unfair competition due to technology.”
　　Also, exhaust gas regulations at the federal and state levels, “in particular, California and equivalent states” have led to increased costs for consumers, and it has become difficult for automobile manufacturers to comply...

USA funding costs surge - Traders flock in anticipation of year-end constraints.
November 22, 2024 11:12 JST (excerpt).
Interest rates on next day collateralized repo and MBS-collateralized repo surge.
Movement in Wall Street to prepare for further volatility.
Traders are flocking to the funding market in the USA, and as we approach the end of 2024 with just over a month left, funding costs have risen to concerning levels.
Interest rates on overnight general collateral repos and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) collateral repos are sharply rising as we head towards the end of the year. In response to this increase, some on Wall Street are preparing for further volatility as some large participants in the repo market are expected to hold back on transactions due to year-end regulatory constraints.
Jan Nevrelge, the US Interest Rate Strategist at TD Securities, questioned how many years it has been since year-end concerns started being priced in so early, and indicated, "It's clear that there are bottlenecks, and they will likely worsen as we get closer to the end of the year."

Russian President Putin is prepared for a counterattack in response to the "global conflict" of the Ukraine War.
November 22, 2024, 6:11 AM GMT+9 (excerpt).
Russian President Putin, in a televised speech to the nation on the 21st, stated that the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating into a global conflict, warning that Russia may retaliate. This warning came in response to Russia's tolerance of attacks using long-range missiles provided by the USA and UK to Ukraine.
Putin announced that as retaliation for Ukraine's use of long-range weapons supplied by Western countries to attack Russia, Russia has attacked Ukrainian military facilities with new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missiles. He also warned civilians to prepare for further attacks using these new missiles and stated the potential for attacking military facilities of countries supplying weapons used against Russia.
President Putin stated that Ukraine attacked Russia with six American-made long-range ground-to-ground missiles 'ATACMS' on the 19th, and on the 21st, they used British-made long-range missiles 'Storm Shadow' and American-made high-mobility rocket artillery system 'HIMARS' for the attack...

$Bloom Energy (BE.US)$
Doubled as it is.
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Apple is developing a conversation-based 'Siri' aiming to join the AI forces.
November 22, 2024, 6:57 JST (excerpt).
It is possible to have quick conversations based on the evolved LLM - Source.
The announcement could be made as early as next year, with user availability expected in the spring of 2026.
Apple is hurrying to develop the voice assistant 'Siri' into a more conversational version, as revealed by multiple knowledgeable sources. They aim to catch up with other companies' services like OpenAI's 'ChatGPT.'
Although the details of the new Siri have not been revealed yet, sources, speaking anonymously due to the information being pre-announcement, said that it will utilize an advanced large language model (LLM) for enabling conversations beyond the capabilities of the past. The new Siri will be able to handle more sophisticated requests and respond quickly.