Today's 31st is the Ichimoku equilibrium chart. or rather, that's not all lol
I'm fed up with media crap leaks every time just because of how much scoop I want. After 2:00 midnight, after the morning edition's limit, I feel that the previous day's “interest rate hike” leak went too far, but both exchange rates and futures plummeted due to this.
Well, since it was before the Bank of Japan event, it was unavoidable, and it was a move that had nothing to do with the shape or flow of the chart. Therefore, going back to a three-role reversal in the Ichimoku equilibrium table... is also a discussion that doesn't make much sense...
There is also a possibility that the exact opposite will happen with the announcement later and President Ueda's press conference. After all, we have to make sure that no matter how we move in front of the central bank.

Today's 30th is also called the Bolivan Delayed Line, or -1σ and -2σ.
I think the decline has stopped once, but once the lid is opened, NY is soft, and SOX, which was +1.8% before, is also -0.3% at closing price, making it difficult for semiconductors to return.
Furthermore, due to the depreciation of the yen, the depreciation of the yen is more sensitive than the appreciation of stocks, and it feels like the appreciation of the yen due to dollar sales due to falling interest rates is holding back stocks today.
In any case, there is also an aspect of yesterday's reactionary depreciation of the 800 yen increase, so I think we'll wait for the Bank of Japan after all.
Even if -2σ is the lower price and the upper price is -1σ, it seems that it will still fluctuate during the day because it is a volatility situation with a 1200 yen range from 37700 to 38890.

Today's 29th is the Bolivan Delayed Line.
I mentioned it in the video from last weekend, but it's red▲I told you that if the light is on and it can move above -2σ, the decline will stop.
Around 38500 at 9:30 at 38200 on the weekend. It came up all at once, didn't it? Although it is a closing price judgment, I think it is OK to judge that the decline has stopped once. If so, we can expect a return to 25MA. Currently, the 25MA is around 40050.

Well, today I'm going to introduce a transcendental and simple tactic in a special way that I usually explain in membership videos.
You'll be surprised at how simple it is, but since it's a swing of about 1 month to a few months, I'm so busy with work that I can't watch the market price every day! I recommend it to anyone.
Charts to useCandlestick and 5-week moving averageonly.
I hope you know how important it is to read charts because even such a simple investment tactic can produce results.
OK, let's start with the individual stocks to be used“1489 NF Nikkei Average High Dividend Stock 50 ETF”Let's say it.
If you want to work a chart and think about tactics, avoid small-cap stocks or stocks with low liquidity. Then, select stocks that are on a steady upward trend over a span of 1 to 3 years. No matter how good they are in terms of fundamentals, it's no use just buying stocks that have been on a downward trend for the past 1 year or 2.
It is important not to expect it to rise eventually... but to choose something that is clearly up to expectations.
Now take a look at the 1489 weekly chart from the end of 2023 to 24/4.
What I'm using this time is a weekly schedule, so...

The US CPI for 7/11 at 21:30 declined steadily, and it was thought that it would pass safely due to rising expectations for interest rate cuts due to falling inflation.
However, semiconductors that had risen too much were sold, and the SP500 was -0.85%, and the NASDAQ was -1.95%. Furthermore, SOX was drastically adjusted to -3.47%.
Furthermore, US interest rates declined in response to CPI, and when dollars were sold, excessive dollar yen and cross yen also rebounded.
As a result, Nikkei futures also fell drastically, and all at once, the SQ value battle dropped one level from 42000 yen to 41500 yen.
However, this slapstick is about the world of interest rates, exchange, the Nikkei Average, and Japan's derivative SQ, and it's a different world story from the “Japanese stock market.” So, today's 1000 yen depreciation is a reaction of this week's 2000 yen appreciation.
As proof of this, there has been almost no increase in volatility (Nikkei VI). Originally, if the Japanese market plummeted, VI should skyrocket.
Furthermore, if you look at the ratio between the number of stocks that have risen in price and the number of stocks that have dropped in price, it has risen by a whopping 60% or more.
Since this is the situation, everyone's portfolio losses have increased a lot...

When you actually trade,Supply and demandHow much importance do you place on it?
As the title says spoiler.If you talk about market prices based only on supply and demand, you'll die. However,Investors who don't look at supply and demand or disdain them also can't winIt is a characteristic.
In short, it's justSupply and demand are secondary, but it is necessary to look at the market price after having that information and knowledgeIt's also an indescribable opponent.
Let's take a look at the specifics.
Is it the Nikkei averageThe supply and demand for Japanese stocks is very bad nowIt is.
after all,Remaining credit buybacks are 5 trillion yenApproaching the level for the first time in 17 years.The most common situation in the past 20 yearsThat's it. Credit purchases basically have to be settled in a maximum of 6 months,Overstock is a sales factor in the near futureIt is.
This is the largest scale in the last 20 years, and it is clearly very common because the level of the Nikkei Average has reached 40,000 yen and the level of the stock price itself is high.
As of last week in total for 2 cities4,911.7 billion yen. Unbought or unsold6.45 times even with a credit ratioThere are also, so no matter how high the Nikkei average level is, there are abnormally many unbought items.
furtherInstitutional investors' arbitrage balance is also at the 2.4 trillion yen levelSo, this is also very much when it exceeds 2 trillion yen. Even if this takes stock price levels into account, 2.5 trillion yen...

Many people, myself included“If the yen depreciates, the Nikkei Average will rise,” “at least it won't fall,” “large export stocks will rise.”I think that's the perception.
But here tooI need a mindset changeI would like to confirm the story that we are in such a situation... while looking at the chart.
This is a chart of the correlation coefficient between Nikkei futures and the dollar and yen.
As the name suggests, the correlation coefficientThe state of correlation between the twoIt represents,1.0 is the max and 1.0 is fully correlated. -1.0 for perfect inverse correlation, and 0 for no correlationIt will be.
Perfect correlation means that if A goes up, B always goes up, or if A goes down, all B also goes down.
Whether the stock price rises or falls, if both sides move in the same direction, the correlation coefficient will be positive, so it's easy to get confused when stock prices are falling.
On the other hand, when the correlation coefficient is negative, it is called inverse correlation, and if A goes up, B goes down, and if A goes down, B goes up... it's the exact opposite of both.
Also, 0 (zero): The yellow dotted line shows “no correlation,” although the image is a bit more confusing.
As the name suggests, this shows that there is no correlation between the movements of A and B...

The US market is extremely strong even now, but when this hits the ceiling and becomes a solid depreciation rate, then”Canary in the coal mineThere are several stocks and charts that become”.
Copper prices: the material for actual demand, the decline in copper represents economic instability as it is
Retail sales: Since private consumption accounts for 70% of US GDP, the decline in retail sales represents an economic slowdown as is
Home Depot stock price: Even in retail, large appliances and furniture are closely related to moving and home purchases. If this becomes soft, it indicates a slowdown in the economy
etc etc.
further“FedEx” is known to have often declined during the period that became the starting point of past recessions (recessions)It is.
It is a brand that is also included in the DJT (Dow Transport Stock Average) in the transportation sector. socalledEconomy-sensitive stock sectorsThat's it. Since the main thing is cargo, the economic slowdown will affect it even more directly than passengers.
If the economy deteriorates, companies will shrink production activities, so production of products will decrease in various industries, and cargo will decreaseThe performance of cargo transportation businesses such as FedEx deteriorated earlierI will.
So,If we break a milestone on the FedEx long-term chart, the US economy is in trouble!So that's it....

Today's 15th is the GMMA oscillator.
As of 9:40 in the morning, it is still around 38700 yen, which is almost negative. When the high price reached 38840 yen, it was able to turn positive for a moment, but it won't turn positive until 38800 yen or more on the 15-day chart.
However, after 16:30 which is today's night, there will be a 16-day schedule.
If the 25MA is 38420 yen or more, I think it will probably turn positive, so since the uptrend has revived in the medium term, we must change that perspective.
However, as I mentioned in yesterday's video, people often go with PPI and CPI, so since I raised it with Powell's remarks after PPI yesterday, I think it's better to be wary of today's pattern of lowering CPI and retail.

NY is in a stronger position than I had imagined due to a sudden rebound.
An upward trend over the long term! That said, the long term I'm talking about is on a daily basis, and the long term is 2 to 3 month increments.
However, the ground that collapsed in April has already recovered by 80% or more, and has completely returned to the high price range.
Japanese stocks were swayed by the dollar and yen, and the momentum of return reached 25MA due to the rapid appreciation of the yen.
As I mentioned in the previous chart, the beginning of the week was completely pushed back.
However, since both the SP500 and NASDAQ have recovered their upward trend over a long period of time, the situation has completely returned.
At least as long as inflation doesn't worsen with the next CPI, the development will be solid for the time being. If geopolitical risks and China risks aren't rekindled...
On top of that, financial results are in full swing in Japan.
While it can be expected that stock prices will rise by that amount if expected EPS rises, there is a high possibility that growth will be sluggish if careful forecasts for the next fiscal year are issued due to exchange instability.
It has become difficult for foreigners to adopt the tactic of simply selling yen and buying Japanese stocks, and it seems that their strength up until now will recede once.
In other words, even though US stocks are strong, Japanese stocks don't rise, the same if US stocks fall...