$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Little by little, interest rate cuts have been factored into the market price! It's a floor increase chart that can be viewed technically, and the market forecast for interest rate cuts is 3 times a year, and I think this is still going to change 🤔
However, it is also a reality that it is becoming a bond price where profits are generated from falling interest rates 😁
So how long will it last?
Like a critic who has put up with it until now but makes irresponsible statements? I'm misled by people who incite that bonds are terrible and that TMF is dangerous, and I want to let go of it quickly because I'm uneasy!? I understand this feeling too 😅
This is money to spare, and only bond investors who are well-off worry about, and since investing is your own responsibility, please look at past cases as before, look at the flow of indicators, and invest with your own goals 🍀
Interest rates haven't been cut even once yet! So I'm still gutsy! The dividends are still good too 🥰
※Each person also has different values when it comes to investment timelines and ideas ✨
However, it is also a reality that it is becoming a bond price where profits are generated from falling interest rates 😁
So how long will it last?
Like a critic who has put up with it until now but makes irresponsible statements? I'm misled by people who incite that bonds are terrible and that TMF is dangerous, and I want to let go of it quickly because I'm uneasy!? I understand this feeling too 😅
This is money to spare, and only bond investors who are well-off worry about, and since investing is your own responsibility, please look at past cases as before, look at the flow of indicators, and invest with your own goals 🍀
Interest rates haven't been cut even once yet! So I'm still gutsy! The dividends are still good too 🥰
※Each person also has different values when it comes to investment timelines and ideas ✨
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Signs that inflation has slowed down quite a bit have appeared as indicators 😁
The number one employment index is lagging behind, and it's falling even if the government does its best to hire 😱
Strictly speaking, the calm in inflation is economic deterioration due to a decline in individual purchasing power! Originally, companies look to the future and invest in jobs and equipment!
So are we going to invest higher as we head into a recession? And I can't borrow money due to high interest rates! Moreover, how many companies are physically strong as sales decline due to high labor costs? Is there a history where the reverse yield curve dug this deep and took a long time to make a soft landing?
If you think about it from a probabilistic point of view, you can see a sudden interest rate cut from the recession eventually 😂😂😂
Just believe in the results and wait until then! I'm a timid creditor investor 🥰
The number one employment index is lagging behind, and it's falling even if the government does its best to hire 😱
Strictly speaking, the calm in inflation is economic deterioration due to a decline in individual purchasing power! Originally, companies look to the future and invest in jobs and equipment!
So are we going to invest higher as we head into a recession? And I can't borrow money due to high interest rates! Moreover, how many companies are physically strong as sales decline due to high labor costs? Is there a history where the reverse yield curve dug this deep and took a long time to make a soft landing?
If you think about it from a probabilistic point of view, you can see a sudden interest rate cut from the recession eventually 😂😂😂
Just believe in the results and wait until then! I'm a timid creditor investor 🥰
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$It was a week where the TLT.TMF increase was heavy 😓
Bonds were temporarily sold from Trump shift predictions and inflation rekindling indicators in Canada and Australia, but ISM and US employment statistics and US indicators continued to slow down, so are high interest rates finally taking effect on the economy!?
The exchange rate has hit a ceiling for the past week due to the depreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the yen 🤔
If the rice index continues to soften, the rate cut is being reviewed again 😋
If the economy is good, there's no need to cut interest rates! The fact that no matter what anyone says or does is evidence that the economic deterioration is progressing, but there are two things to keep in mind
① I'm worried about the rise in crude oil
② I'm worried about the increase in CPI in Canada and Australia
First, it's the US CPI on the 11th!
Bonds were temporarily sold from Trump shift predictions and inflation rekindling indicators in Canada and Australia, but ISM and US employment statistics and US indicators continued to slow down, so are high interest rates finally taking effect on the economy!?
The exchange rate has hit a ceiling for the past week due to the depreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the yen 🤔
If the rice index continues to soften, the rate cut is being reviewed again 😋
If the economy is good, there's no need to cut interest rates! The fact that no matter what anyone says or does is evidence that the economic deterioration is progressing, but there are two things to keep in mind
① I'm worried about the rise in crude oil
② I'm worried about the increase in CPI in Canada and Australia
First, it's the US CPI on the 11th!
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Bond prices have dropped drastically, but the CPI of Canada 🇨🇦 and Australia 🇦🇺 have risen, and inflation rekindling predictions have been revived! Is Canada temporary since they cut interest rates? Is Australia affected by China's deflation? And will it spread further from here to the world?
I thought it would be clear this weekend, but let's keep in mind that it will still take some time and go ahead and observe! I think the bottom prices for TMF and TLT have come out well 😅
I thought it would be clear this weekend, but let's keep in mind that it will still take some time and go ahead and observe! I think the bottom prices for TMF and TLT have come out well 😅
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ This is a chart where interest rate cuts are being incorporated little by little. However, the interest rate cut in September is the market forecast, and I don't think bond prices will rise significantly until next July if there are no indicators showing a slowdown in inflation 🤔
① Waiting for weak indicators
② July unemployment rate 4.1% [Sam rule]
③ July interest rate cut [surprise]
First, I think I'll aim for 95.5 dollars while slowly rising from ①. Bond investors are waiting for the Therm Rule to be triggered from ②, and I think that if ①② moves in reverse, the insertion amount will recoil and it will return to square one again 😓
③ The probability is still low, so I would like to slowly collect TMF etc. with dividends 😊
① Waiting for weak indicators
② July unemployment rate 4.1% [Sam rule]
③ July interest rate cut [surprise]
First, I think I'll aim for 95.5 dollars while slowly rising from ①. Bond investors are waiting for the Therm Rule to be triggered from ②, and I think that if ①② moves in reverse, the insertion amount will recoil and it will return to square one again 😓
③ The probability is still low, so I would like to slowly collect TMF etc. with dividends 😊
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ This time, the FOMC, which thought it was a pigeon faction based on the CPI results, was unexpectedly a hawk faction!
I think bond investors who were waiting for interest rate cuts were disappointed 😭
However, I think the basis for cutting interest rates 3 times to 1 time per year in FOMC figures is a numerical value that is 1 part strong, and the inflation rate announced this time from 2.6% to 2.8% at the end of '25 was revised from 2.2% to 2.3% at the beginning of '25. However, GDP remained at 2.1%, and the inflation rate was rising!? This is because the FOMC says itself that the economy is weak!?
I think the strong plating of the American economy is peeling off 🤔
Nevertheless, I have an image that the Fed delays interest rate cuts, and that interest rate cuts fall at a considerable angle rather than a gradual decline 😋
I'm steadily expecting a change in NISA, bonds, and exchange rates 🥱
I think bond investors who were waiting for interest rate cuts were disappointed 😭
However, I think the basis for cutting interest rates 3 times to 1 time per year in FOMC figures is a numerical value that is 1 part strong, and the inflation rate announced this time from 2.6% to 2.8% at the end of '25 was revised from 2.2% to 2.3% at the beginning of '25. However, GDP remained at 2.1%, and the inflation rate was rising!? This is because the FOMC says itself that the economy is weak!?
I think the strong plating of the American economy is peeling off 🤔
Nevertheless, I have an image that the Fed delays interest rate cuts, and that interest rate cuts fall at a considerable angle rather than a gradual decline 😋
I'm steadily expecting a change in NISA, bonds, and exchange rates 🥱
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ It's a bond that somehow broke from the decline and became a chart that seemed to be riding an upward trend! I'm happy ~ 😋
Bonds and stock prices are inversely correlated during major trend changes! This is a phenomenon everyone knows, and I think there are many people who hit Ishibashi and gradually increase bond investments while carefully protecting their funds 🤔
Naturally, risk and return are proportional to investment, but I think the only timing now is when volatility increases in bond investments!
Invest in bonds to move a lot of money while freaking out when the bridge will be dropped before the recession! Of course, I feel that the loss of opportunity is huge compared to stock prices, but first of all, I'm thankful for a reasonable return with a small risk 🙏
The timing for my bond investments now is to make solid savings at high interest rates! Let go of low interest rates and shift to stocks with good taste! Just wait for it 😁
The real intention is that I envy the taste of stocks 🤤
However, while adhering to my own rules and maintaining my mentality, I think I'll have a little more patience 🥰
Bonds and stock prices are inversely correlated during major trend changes! This is a phenomenon everyone knows, and I think there are many people who hit Ishibashi and gradually increase bond investments while carefully protecting their funds 🤔
Naturally, risk and return are proportional to investment, but I think the only timing now is when volatility increases in bond investments!
Invest in bonds to move a lot of money while freaking out when the bridge will be dropped before the recession! Of course, I feel that the loss of opportunity is huge compared to stock prices, but first of all, I'm thankful for a reasonable return with a small risk 🙏
The timing for my bond investments now is to make solid savings at high interest rates! Let go of low interest rates and shift to stocks with good taste! Just wait for it 😁
The real intention is that I envy the taste of stocks 🤤
However, while adhering to my own rules and maintaining my mentality, I think I'll have a little more patience 🥰
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ I think the bond range will continue from here on! Hmm TMF is a painful pattern 🤔
The US employment statistics were expected to decline, but on the contrary, the result was an upward trend!
Once again, it rebounded due to soaring interest rates and low bonds, and the contents of US employment statistics are by no means good
It still takes time until interest rates are cut 😭
Let's realistically think that the July interest rate cut line has disappeared 😓
Next week CPI → FOMC → Bank of Japan meeting
Important events will continue!
6/12 (Wed) 21:30 m CPI
6/12 (Wed) 27:00 FOMC
6/12 (Wed) 27:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference
Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement at noon on 6/14 (Friday)
6/14 (Fri) 15:30 President Ueda's press conference
What is the current trend
CPI is slowing down, but let's also consider that if CPI rises and bond interest rates rise, it will become a chart aiming for the lowest price!
Since the FOMC is certain to stay the same
Maybe it depends on the dot chart (interest rate forecast)
Number of interest rate cuts in 2024
→Once or twice!?
If the Bank of Japan doesn't comment from hawks, the yen will continue to depreciate!
According to employment statistics, the market is cutting interest rates in America...
The US employment statistics were expected to decline, but on the contrary, the result was an upward trend!
Once again, it rebounded due to soaring interest rates and low bonds, and the contents of US employment statistics are by no means good
It still takes time until interest rates are cut 😭
Let's realistically think that the July interest rate cut line has disappeared 😓
Next week CPI → FOMC → Bank of Japan meeting
Important events will continue!
6/12 (Wed) 21:30 m CPI
6/12 (Wed) 27:00 FOMC
6/12 (Wed) 27:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference
Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement at noon on 6/14 (Friday)
6/14 (Fri) 15:30 President Ueda's press conference
What is the current trend
CPI is slowing down, but let's also consider that if CPI rises and bond interest rates rise, it will become a chart aiming for the lowest price!
Since the FOMC is certain to stay the same
Maybe it depends on the dot chart (interest rate forecast)
Number of interest rate cuts in 2024
→Once or twice!?
If the Bank of Japan doesn't comment from hawks, the yen will continue to depreciate!
According to employment statistics, the market is cutting interest rates in America...
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ The unemployment rate is the result of the previous month, so I think of it as a delayed effect index 🤔
The current unemployment rate forecast is 3.9%, but first I expect 4%! If by any chance it is 4.1%, the Therm Rule will be activated 😋
The point this time is whether the Therm Rule will be activated this month or next month!? it just so happens to be far away!?
Canada 🇨🇦 Europe has begun to cut interest rates, and I would like to wait for the results while predicting the countdown to America's interest rate cuts next 😊
The current unemployment rate forecast is 3.9%, but first I expect 4%! If by any chance it is 4.1%, the Therm Rule will be activated 😋
The point this time is whether the Therm Rule will be activated this month or next month!? it just so happens to be far away!?
Canada 🇨🇦 Europe has begun to cut interest rates, and I would like to wait for the results while predicting the countdown to America's interest rate cuts next 😊
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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ Bonds viewed from the exchange rate 🤔
I'm doing FX, but looking at the dollar yen, the decline quickly returned due to the month-end factor, and the appreciation of the dollar still hasn't changed.
However, in terms of fundamentals, I think there is gradually no room for the dollar to appreciate.
This has taken into account quite a bit the appreciation of the dollar due to a retreat in interest rate cuts observations.
In order for bond interest rates to rise even more from here on due to the appreciation of the dollar, I think that is exactly an additional interest rate increase.
But the Fed's next move is “interest rate cuts,” right? The dollar index for May showed a negative line for the first time in a long time!
There is a big relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, so I would like to think that this area is bottoming out for long-term bonds 🤔
I think the rise in the inflation rate since the beginning of the year has calmed down!
This was a big rise in crude oil prices 😓
However, the monthly price of crude oil has also been determined on a negative line, and it acts as a downward pressure on the US CPI announced in June!?
(Of course it's not determined by crude oil alone)
Pay attention to the results of the OPEC meeting on 6/2 (Sun) → we can predict how far production cuts will continue.
US employment statistics → US CPI → FOMC are really important in June...
I'm doing FX, but looking at the dollar yen, the decline quickly returned due to the month-end factor, and the appreciation of the dollar still hasn't changed.
However, in terms of fundamentals, I think there is gradually no room for the dollar to appreciate.
This has taken into account quite a bit the appreciation of the dollar due to a retreat in interest rate cuts observations.
In order for bond interest rates to rise even more from here on due to the appreciation of the dollar, I think that is exactly an additional interest rate increase.
But the Fed's next move is “interest rate cuts,” right? The dollar index for May showed a negative line for the first time in a long time!
There is a big relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, so I would like to think that this area is bottoming out for long-term bonds 🤔
I think the rise in the inflation rate since the beginning of the year has calmed down!
This was a big rise in crude oil prices 😓
However, the monthly price of crude oil has also been determined on a negative line, and it acts as a downward pressure on the US CPI announced in June!?
(Of course it's not determined by crude oil alone)
Pay attention to the results of the OPEC meeting on 6/2 (Sun) → we can predict how far production cuts will continue.
US employment statistics → US CPI → FOMC are really important in June...
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