Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed his intention not to run in the September LDP leadership election on the 14th. Against this backdrop, the Nikkei average, which had a buying preference, reversed course and temporarily dropped by nearly 600 yen. The dollar-yen also temporarily fell by over 80 basis points, with the dollar reaching 146 yen, leading to a stronger yen. The yield on 10-year government bonds also fell by 1.5 basis points, to 0.83%.
Since Prime Minister Kishida took office on October 4, 2021, until the announcement of not running, the Nikkei average achieved a rise of 26.6%. Meanwhile, the dollar-yen moved in the direction of a 32.62% increase in yen depreciation.
Prime Minister Kishida's tenure has entered the post-COVID era, during which he advocated expansive fiscal policies such as economic stimulus and wage increases. In May 2022, Prime Minister Kishida announced the expansion of NISA as a specific measure of the 'Asset Income Doubling Plan.' In the 2024 spring labor negotiations, the average wage increase rate reached 5.10%, the highest level since 1991, raising expectations for exiting deflation.
What about the future stock market and exchange rate for the yen?
In the September LDP presidential election, potential successors such as Shigeru Ishiba, former Defense Minister, Taro Kono, Minister for Digital Transformation, Yoko Kawakami, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary-General, Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of the Environment, Sanae Takaichi, Minister for Economic Security, and Katsunobu Kato, former Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare, are expected. Among them, only Sanae Takaichi is seen as adopting a more relaxed stance...