In July 2024, the number of non-agricultural sector employees (employment statistics) fell below market expectations, causing the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3%. Accuracy rate of 100% for predicting the USA economic recessionofSarm economic recession indicatoris Lit up at 0.53 in July.This has led to a growing perception that America has entered a recession, and the market has shifted to risk-off mode. (*The Sam recessions index, devised by former FRB economist Sam, known as the 'Sam Rule,' suggests a recession when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate exceeds the 3-month moving average minimum of the past 12 months by 0.50 percentage points, with a historical recession prediction accuracy of 100%. The US unemployment rate is announced every first Friday of the month.)
Subsequently, the unemployment rate improved in August and September, with the Sam recession index decreasing from 0.57 in August to 0.50 in September.Ease worries about economic downturnThe market sentiment has turned into a risk-on environment with high stock prices and low bond yields.
Tonight, the employment statistics for October are finally scheduled to be released, with a high likelihood of the 'Saam Rule' being lifted. The American economy is moving away from concerns of a recession and the good economic conditions continue...

This week's Point
This week in the Japanese stock market, It is expected to be greatly influenced by the monetary policies of Japan and the USA.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be held on September 17-18, and its results will have a very significant impact on the market. In addition, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meeting is scheduled for 19-20. In the market, a rate cut at the FOMC is considered certain, and the rate cut is expected to be 25 basis points, but there is also a high possibility of a significant rate cut of 50 basis points.
With the rate cut by the FOMC,Will provide a tailwind to growth stocks and small-cap stocks in the USAUS PCE Price Index revised downward to 2.8% increase for the April-June quarterSimilar effects are expected for similar stocks in Japan. Especially, Semiconductor stocksthe field of focus, if U.S. growth stocks such as Nvidia are strong, it is expected that Japanese semiconductor stocks will also show a steady movement. In addition, attention will also be on the June machinery orders announced on the 18th and the national consumer price index for August announced on the 20th.
The U.S. stock market will also be greatly influenced by the results of the FOMC. The market had been expecting a 25bp rate cut, but the possibility of a 50bp rate cut increased after the news report on the 12th. Market expectations...

Policy makers at the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) are increasingly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting in September, following new data indicating signs of cooling inflation.
According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 10th, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month. The rate of increase over these 2 months is the smallest in the past 2 years. The overall CPI also rose by 0.2% in July, with a 3.2% increase compared to the same month last year.
Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander US Capital Markets LLC, said, 'The FRB must have taken courage from two consecutive low numbers. I think the intention of the FRB is to skip in September. It's a certainty that these won't be the final words.'
In July, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) raised the Federal Funds Rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in the past 22 years. The median forecast of FRB officials for the most recent quarter, released in June, indicated two more rate hikes this year, with the first hike achieved in last month's increase.
President Michel Bowman mentioned on August 7th the need for further interest rate hikes to fully restore price stability.