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183381923 Private ID: 183381923
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    183381923 commented on
    $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ First of all, as a premise. Unless there is a devastating damage to the economy like the Lehman shock, the so-called hard landing, the FRB will not make rapid interest rate cuts. The Corona shock was an unprecedented crisis, and its level cannot be compared. Also, it is natural to assume that the current U.S. administration wants to issue government bonds and maintain their interest rates above a certain level in order to implement policies. It is also understood that there is no immediate complete elimination of the risk of inflation resurgence due to political instability in the Middle East. In consideration of these factors, it seems that the true intention of the FRB is to lower interest rates to the extent necessary for the economy to survive, but to maintain interest rates above a certain level for a certain period of time. If a so-called soft landing were to be achieved, this commodity ETF, especially with long-term bonds and additional leverage, would be very risky. Betting on this product means betting on a hard landing, and there is no other reason to choose it. After all, they have raised interest rates many times, so there will definitely be a rate cut someday, it's a guaranteed win! There is no apparent reason to blindly hold it for vague reasons like these.
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    183381923 commented on
    $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
    I wonder how many people are looking at raw data here? 🤣
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