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Roxi_117 Male ID: 183433983
2024/02 入門
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    $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
    Despite the rise in VVIX, not only fur puts but also fur calls are increasing, causing the VI distribution to become symmetrical, skew decreasing. For a while, the risk hedging activities of option traders preparing for major market moves can be observed as stock prices fluctuate significantly.
    Translated
    Is it a major market move?
    The movement of the S&P 500 stock price (candlestick chart) and its skew (blue), as well as the VIX (brown) and VVIX (yellow), can be represented on one sheet on the free version TV. The value of VIX (brown), which rises in case of a stock market crash, has hardly changed, but the skew value (blue) that rises when there is an increase in far put options (profit from a significant drop in stock prices) on S&P 500 options, and the value of VVIX (yellow) that rises when there is an increase in far call options (profit from a significant increase in VIX) on VIX options, both have increased. The current skew (blue) value is 148.83, exceeding the 140 threshold, which is an indicator of black swan event risk. In the absence of information on changes in US bond interest rates, is it due to caution towards today's unemployment rate announcement at 21:30? What is the cause of the decline in the dollar index since last night? It would be good if it turns out to be needless worry and, literally, "changes quickly", as the saying goes... For your reference.
    <About SKEW and VVIX>
    On July 12th at 02:00, it seems that moomoo Securities will be broadcasting an exclusive webinar hosted by the CBOE Options Institute. You can make a viewing reservation from within the app's videos.
    Translated
    Skew in the morning of July 5, 2024.
    If Tesla's stock (yellow) saturates and Nvidia's stock (red) begins to rise again, can we interpret that the doubts of S&P 500 large option investors have decreased, leading to a decrease in the VVIX value (purple, VIX of VIX)? Will the fund flow of the adjustment rotation return steadily to Nvidia?
    Translated
    On July 3, 2024, the US stock market.
    The video is an example of the Nikkei, but generally ETFs have fiscal periods in January and July. Will the adjustment of 'ETF distribution income earmarking sell' continue?
    https://youtu.be/qrFZZgBDJDA?si=vIOsbJQ43eIa06PZ
    There was also a video like this. From NVIDIA to MLCC: A major adjustment every three months is natural. Electrical utilities and Japan's MLCC are promising.
    https://youtu.be/-XhWSpLjPhU
    Translated
    Due to lack of experience, I have struggled to make risk-off judgments and decisions, repeating buying and cutting losses in April. I have summarized my reflections on this topic below:
    [Model]
    Conditions for appearance of a downward trend in stock prices (example)
    [1] Rapid increase in interest rates (red triangle in the diagram above)
    [2] Exceeding the limit of interest rates (red square in the diagram above)
    [3] Recession (rapid decrease in interest rates)
    Deflation (ultra-low interest rates)
    Others (natural disasters, geopolitical risks, legal and regulatory changes, changes in the assumptions of leading markets, etc)
    If none of the above apply, it is expected that the market sentiment will be biased towards inflation, and even with a gradual increase in interest rates, there is a rough macro upward trend in stock prices, as can be seen from past data.
    Regarding the situation currently facing [2], there was a suggestion that the decision on risk ON/OFF can be made by using the interest rate of the US 2-year Treasury bonds (approximately 4.7-4.8 under the current conditions) as a reference.
    Reference: Youtube by Ryo Okazaki, April 19, 2024 https://youtu.be/cM4vGZO5nbA?si=w3xQkGp_C9_sXAYk
    The reason for the rise in the market interest rates is that securities ...
    Translated
    (Under verification) Risk ON/OFF judgment model
    (Under verification) Risk ON/OFF judgment model
    (Under verification) Risk ON/OFF judgment model
    Before 4/11, the stock market in the United States had different market fluctuations for each stock, but after 4/12, it became synchronized market fluctuations, which I found puzzling. Prices rose in unison after the CPI announcement, and they fell in unison just before the headline on geopolitical risks.
    World billionaires who own massive assets may know what will happen next. They might be busy with ETF risk-on/risk-off maneuvers and transitioning asset management strategies (stocks to U.S. bonds).
    ====Bonus====
    I will also add to the mystery of Japanese stocks. Since the dollar-yen rose after the CPI announcement, I thought that the next day, automobile stocks, strong in exports, would skyrocket, and real estate stocks for domestic demand would fall. However, the opposite actually happened.
    Real estate stocks: skyrocketing
    Automobile stocks: stagnation to decline.
    It seemed like something similar to the thoughts of the world's billionaires was being hinted at, so it's for reference.
    I apologize if it was just a misunderstanding.
    Please determine and make decisions at your own responsibility.
    Translated
    The Mysteries of the Stock Market on 4/12
    The Mysteries of the Stock Market on 4/12
    Despite the rise in the Dollar Index (yellow) from buying dollars from currencies other than the USA, US Treasuries were bought at the same time, leading to a decrease in the US10Y interest rate (purple). However, the USD/JPY exchange rate (green) remained stable. It felt different from usual, and I found it mysterious. At the moment a slight phase difference occurred and the USD/JPY exchange rate began to fall, the FX team seemed to wake up, and the USD/JPY plummeted. After a few swings, it gradually returned to normal.
    This mysterious phenomenon was understood to be a geopolitical headline risk the next morning on the 13th after watching PAN-san's YouTube broadcast.
    https://youtu.be/dYe4O9QHddg?si=BtJwj0LaGyuw07hG
    No, is it more serious? Could it be more than just a headline risk? Why doesn't Japan's mass media report it properly?
    https://www.youtube.com/live/IQaOsp-QkDw?si=16QkT05fcnBo4OHv
    == Just a thought ==
    This mysterious phenomenon in the current USD/JPY exchange rate, may possibly be applied to methods of foreign exchange intervention. For example,
    Japanese government...
    Translated
    The mystery of the USD/JPY on the night of 4/12
    If inflation causes the loan interest rates in usa (as a reference benchmark US10Y) to rise too much, leading to a decline in demand for real estate and concerns about financial crisis due to the breakdown of fund circulation. Therefore,
    Issue 1: Possibility of worst-case scenario
    Task 2: Examples of preparations for emergencies
    I have gathered information about the implications of the financial results of US financial institutions after April 15, which may cause the market to fluctuate again.
    ★ Issues Raised by IMF Jan 18, 2024
    https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/17/us-commercial-real-estate-remains-a-risk-despite-investor-hopes-for-soft-landing
    Despite expectations of a soft landing, there are significant risks associated with commercial real estate in the United States.
    ★ Stability of National Banks Raised by the Real Estate Loan Bank Association on Feb 23, 2024
    https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2024/february/mba-newslink-tuesday-feb-27-2024/ ...
    Translated
    Wage increases are just one necessary condition for the domestic economic recovery, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes should be carried out in a timely and appropriate manner to control inflation after confirming the domestic economic growth. Conversely, if the interest rate is raised first, I think the Japanese economy will fall into stagflation, with rising prices, economic stagnation, and low stock prices. I pray and believe that the Bank of Japan will never make a wrong decision.
    Translated
    3
    I'm also concerned about recent trend changes where US and European government bonds are being bought and Japanese government bonds are sold.
    Translated