I was able to express the S&P 500 stock price (candlestick) and its SKEW (blue), and changes in VIX (brown) and VVIX (yellow) on one free TV. The VIX (brown) value, which rises due to the stock price crash, has hardly changed, but the SKEW (blue) value, which rises when far put (profit due to a drastic fall in stock price) increases in the S&P 500 option, and the VVIX (yellow) value, which rises when far calls (profit from a drastic VIX rise) of the VIX option increase, have both risen. The current SKEW (blue) value is 148.83, which exceeds the estimated risk of black swans appearing at 140. While information on changes in US bond interest rates is scarce, is it a sense of alarm about the unemployment rate announcement etc. at 21:30 tonight? What is the cause of the fall in the dollar index since last night? It would be nice if it ended in disappointment and literally became a “morning reign, twilight reform,” but... Just for your reference.
<About SKEW and VVIX＞
On 7/12 at 02:00 it is said that Moomoo Securities will distribute an exclusive webinar hosted by the CBoE Options Research Institute. It looks like you can make a viewing reservation from within the app.
<About SKEW and VVIX＞
On 7/12 at 02:00 it is said that Moomoo Securities will distribute an exclusive webinar hosted by the CBoE Options Research Institute. It looks like you can make a viewing reservation from within the app.
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4
When Tesla stocks (yellow) became saturated and Nvidia shares (red) began to rise again, I wonder if it is OK to interpret that the skepticism of S&P 500 large option investors decreased and the VVIX value (purple, VIX of VIX) declined? I wonder if the funding flow for the adjustment rotation will return to Nvidia, where performance guidance is rock-solid?
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11
The video is an example of Nikkei, but it is generally said that there are many ETFs that reach their fiscal period in January and July. Maybe adjustments to the “ETF distribution sale” will continue?
https://youtu.be/qrFZZgBDJDA?si=vIOsbJQ43eIa06PZ
There was also a video like this. MLCC from NVIDIA: Of course there are major adjustments once every 3 months. Electric power and Japan's MLCC are also promising.
https://youtu.be/-XhWSpLjPhU
https://youtu.be/qrFZZgBDJDA?si=vIOsbJQ43eIa06PZ
There was also a video like this. MLCC from NVIDIA: Of course there are major adjustments once every 3 months. Electric power and Japan's MLCC are also promising.
https://youtu.be/-XhWSpLjPhU
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Due to lack of experience, it was difficult to make risk-off decisions and decisions, so I bought in April and cut losses repeatedly. I've summarized those reflections below, using the title of the label.
[model]
Conditions for the emergence of a downward trend in stock prices (example)
[1] Rapid rise in interest rates (red △ in the figure above)
[2] Interest rate limit exceeded (red □ in the figure above)
[3] Recession (rapid rate cut)
[4] Deflation (extremely low interest rates)
[5] Others (natural disasters, geopolitical risks, law/system changes, advance market assumptions, etc.)
Note, if it does not fall under the above, the situation becomes inflationary, so a rough macro upward trend in stock prices can be read in past data even while interest rates are being raised moderately.
Regarding the above [2], which we are facing now, the interest rate on US 2-year government bonds (yellow line in the figure above, is it generally about 4.7 to 4.8 under current conditions?) Using it as a guide, it was possible to determine risk ON/OFF, and the following recommendations were made.
/Reference Youtube by Okazaki Ryosuke 2024/04/19 https://youtu.be/cM4vGZO5nbA?si=w3xQkGp_C9_sXAYk
As for the reason for the rise in market interest rates, the stock market rather than deposits...
[model]
Conditions for the emergence of a downward trend in stock prices (example)
[1] Rapid rise in interest rates (red △ in the figure above)
[2] Interest rate limit exceeded (red □ in the figure above)
[3] Recession (rapid rate cut)
[4] Deflation (extremely low interest rates)
[5] Others (natural disasters, geopolitical risks, law/system changes, advance market assumptions, etc.)
Note, if it does not fall under the above, the situation becomes inflationary, so a rough macro upward trend in stock prices can be read in past data even while interest rates are being raised moderately.
Regarding the above [2], which we are facing now, the interest rate on US 2-year government bonds (yellow line in the figure above, is it generally about 4.7 to 4.8 under current conditions?) Using it as a guide, it was possible to determine risk ON/OFF, and the following recommendations were made.
/Reference Youtube by Okazaki Ryosuke 2024/04/19 https://youtu.be/cM4vGZO5nbA?si=w3xQkGp_C9_sXAYk
As for the reason for the rise in market interest rates, the stock market rather than deposits...
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The exchange rate of US stocks before 4/11 fluctuated differently for each stock, but after 4/12, the exchange rate fluctuated synchronously, so I was curious. After the CPI was announced, they kept pace and rose, and they kept pace and declined from around before the geopolitical risk headline.
Maybe the world's millionaires, who know what will happen in the future, are busy risk-on/risk-off with ETFs and switching asset management vessels (stocks → US bonds).
==Bonus====
Incidentally, I will also add the mystery of Japanese stocks. The dollar and yen rose after the CPI was announced, so I thought the next day, automobile stocks that are strong in exports would explode, and real estate stocks with domestic demand would fall, but what was realized was the exact opposite.
Real Estate Stocks: Exploding
Auto stocks: stagnant to decline.
It also seemed like something like the thoughts of the world's millionaires was suggested, so it's helpful.
I'm sorry if it was just a misunderstanding.
Please make decisions at your own risk.
Maybe the world's millionaires, who know what will happen in the future, are busy risk-on/risk-off with ETFs and switching asset management vessels (stocks → US bonds).
==Bonus====
Incidentally, I will also add the mystery of Japanese stocks. The dollar and yen rose after the CPI was announced, so I thought the next day, automobile stocks that are strong in exports would explode, and real estate stocks with domestic demand would fall, but what was realized was the exact opposite.
Real Estate Stocks: Exploding
Auto stocks: stagnant to decline.
It also seemed like something like the thoughts of the world's millionaires was suggested, so it's helpful.
I'm sorry if it was just a misunderstanding.
Please make decisions at your own risk.
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7
Even though the dollar index (yellow) rose due to dollar purchases from currencies other than the US, US bonds were bought at the same time, and interest rates (purple) on US10Y declined. Nevertheless, the dollar-yen exchange rate (green) remained stable. I was surprised that it was different from usual. At the moment when a slight phase difference occurred and the dollar-yen exchange rate began to fall, it seemed that the FX team woke up, and the dollar yen plummeted. After that, it vibrated a few times, and then gradually returned to normal.
I saw Pan's YouTube broadcast on the morning of the 13th the next day for this strange phenomenon, and I was able to understand that the cause was Q geopolitical headline risk.
https://youtu.be/dYe4O9QHddg?si=BtJwj0LaGyuw07hG
No, is it more serious? Maybe it's not just a headline risk? Why isn't Japanese mass media reporting properly?
https://www.youtube.com/live/IQaOsp-QkDw?si=16QkT05fcnBo4OHv
==Just an Idea==
This strange phenomenon of the current dollar-yen exchange rate can probably be applied to the method of exchange intervention? : For example,
The Japanese government...
I saw Pan's YouTube broadcast on the morning of the 13th the next day for this strange phenomenon, and I was able to understand that the cause was Q geopolitical headline risk.
https://youtu.be/dYe4O9QHddg?si=BtJwj0LaGyuw07hG
No, is it more serious? Maybe it's not just a headline risk? Why isn't Japanese mass media reporting properly?
https://www.youtube.com/live/IQaOsp-QkDw?si=16QkT05fcnBo4OHv
==Just an Idea==
This strange phenomenon of the current dollar-yen exchange rate can probably be applied to the method of exchange intervention? : For example,
The Japanese government...
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6
If US loan interest rates (US10Y as a guideline) rise too much due to inflation, demand for real estate will be sluggish, the cash circulation system will collapse, and concerns leading to a financial crisis will also increase. So,
Issue 1: Is there a possibility of a worst-case situation
Assignment 2: Examples of emergency preparedness
I collected information about If suggestions appear in the financial results of US financial institutions after 4/15, the market may shake again.
★ Problem pointed out IMF 2024 Jan 18
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/17/us-commercial-real-estate-remains-a-risk-despite-investor-hopes-for-soft-landing
Despite expectations for a soft landing, he pointed out that there are huge risks faced by commercial real estate in the US.
★ American Bank Stability Real Estate Loan Bankers Association 2024 Feb 23
https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2024/february/mba-newslink-tuesday-feb-27-2024/ ...
Issue 1: Is there a possibility of a worst-case situation
Assignment 2: Examples of emergency preparedness
I collected information about If suggestions appear in the financial results of US financial institutions after 4/15, the market may shake again.
★ Problem pointed out IMF 2024 Jan 18
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/17/us-commercial-real-estate-remains-a-risk-despite-investor-hopes-for-soft-landing
Despite expectations for a soft landing, he pointed out that there are huge risks faced by commercial real estate in the US.
★ American Bank Stability Real Estate Loan Bankers Association 2024 Feb 23
https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2024/february/mba-newslink-tuesday-feb-27-2024/ ...
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7
Wage increases are only one of the necessary conditions for domestic economic recovery, and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan only need to confirm the rise in the domestic economy and then follow up in a timely and appropriate manner to control the inflation rate. Conversely, if interest rates are raised first, I think the Japanese economy will fall into stagflation where prices rise and both the economy and stock prices are sluggish. I pray and believe that the Bank of Japan will never make a mistake in its judgment.
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7
3
I'm also concerned about recent trend changes where US and European government bonds are being bought and Japanese government bonds are sold.
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