A significant 0.50% rate cut was made on September 9, 2024, and it continued in November and December.rising in contrast to the policy interest rate. is decreasing.
This rate cutI expect the effects to appear around April 2025.
Even if the rate cut effect appears and the economy is revitalized, it may not be considered as evidence of a "soft landing"."Soft Landing"There is also a possibility of a rise in unemployment and a downturn in the economy, even if the effect of the rate cut appears and the economy is revitalized, which may not be evidence of achieving a "soft landing".
As I have mentioned many times in my posts,"Soft Landing"andEconomic downturn.At the beginning, they are very similar. The truth is that it is difficult to determine.
Even looking at the current situation of the US economy.Unemployment RateIt is relatively low, not a booming economy, but can be considered a delicate balance.
Only looking at the economic situation in the USA can be precarious.
China's CPIhas completely fallen into a state of depression and deflation.
This Deflationwill continue to spread.
Just like it was in the 1990s, it started from Japan.DeflationIt spread from Asia and Europe and eventually infected the USA.
Chinese CPIIt sharply dropped below the 2% range starting from March 2023.
DeflationThe transmission of this is slow and is expected to occur after March 2025, two years after March 2023.German CPIFalling into the 1% range below the 2% mark...