$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
Retail was weak in February as well. The core was as expected and exceeded the previous month, but overall, it was weak.
The first surprise was the January figures being revised down from -0.9 to -1.2.
Moreover, the biggest issue is that Autos remain negative in February and have not recovered from the previous decline.
Personally, I have been paying attention to the data on luxury goods. For two consecutive months, the results were below both the previous month and the previous year. There seems to be a lack of consumption. Additionally, employment in the service industry is weak, which supports the decline in the food and beverage sector. There are other concerning items, but overall, the situation is weak. The only exception is that online sales have recovered from the poor performance last time, but that was all.
In response, interest rates are showing... strange movements. I don't think the FOMC will lower rates, but it seems there is a possibility of dovish forward guidance.
Including the movements in interest rates, it is very interesting to see how analysts will interpret this data.

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
A sudden focus on retail sales forecasts has emerged! February seems to show a rebound from the weak numbers of January. A strong forecast has been released.
I don't have details on the breakdown, but production in the automotive sector appeared to be active according to PMI and employment statistics. Autos seem to be bouncing back. Additionally, attention is being paid to online sales, entertainment products, dining, and Construction Materials.
With this development, it feels like the concerns about an economic downturn that suddenly arose in February have been dispelled at this point. The rise in long-term interest rates since last week may have read this situation to some extent.
Next week's FOMC forward guidance was expected to be dovish (or rather hoped for), but when weak retail was rejected, there were no longer any elements to support a dovish forecast. The outlook for interest rate cuts seems to be stringent, and the neutral interest rate also seems likely to rise. It's also quite a headache...
I think the movement of stock prices is delicate. Concerns about recession have faded...

$German 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (DE10Y.BD)$ $EUR/USD (EURUSD.FX)$
$German DAX Index (.GDAXI)$
I think I will look for something in Funds related to Euro this weekend.

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
With the FOMC next week, I will share my thoughts. First, regarding monetary policy. Since the Trump policies will be in place by late April to May, until then, the Fed cannot make significant moves, and it’s well known that substantial changes in outlook are also difficult. Therefore, there should not be any significant monetary policy changes at the next FOMC, nor do I expect any vivid changes in forward guidance such as the Dot Candlestick. However, my hopeful expectation is that considering the recent fundamentals, it would be nice to see a somewhat dovish forward guidance.
The possibility of the Fed changing monetary policy will come after June (this is not something I should say arrogantly). It is impossible for me to predict what the fundamentals of the USA economy will look like after June, but to list the visible risks, the first is the tariff issue. The current tariff issue seems like professional wrestling to me. It’s hard to tell how serious it is. There are concerns about its negative impact on prices, but looking at the performance in 2018, it is also unclear (it did go up a bit back then...

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
The PPI from yesterday was below Financial Estimates ... what was very surprising was that there was a revision to the previous month's figures. From memory, it seems rare for revisions to occur in price-related Indicators like this. It’s hard to say for sure since there might be something overlooked ... .
The previous month's PPI saw an upward revision of +0.2% for both overall and core. If this figure had been observed last month, the outlook on prices would likely have been different. Considering this revision, it turns out that the PPI had a significant increase in January and then rebounded in February. It’s impossible to draw any conclusions based solely on these two months’ data, but at least it seems plausible (as a hypothesis) to consider January's increase as a result of tariff effects. As for why there was a rebound in February, that's hard to say ... for example, one could speculate that retail was weak in January, causing a correction in February ... but still, the upward revision leaves me feeling a bit unsettled. By the way, I wonder if this time's figures are reliable too? Wasn't it really supposed to be just +0.2 or more?

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
I learned from Nikkei this morning that Mr. Bowman will become the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve. I don't know much about the individual directors of the Federal Reserve, but I do know this person well. He is known for being a hawk and a supporter of the Republican Party.
The post that Mr. Bowman is set to assume had some turmoil during the regime change, but it feels rather unpleasantly obvious that the Republican Party (or rather Trump) is being quite blatant about it.
The Federal Reserve has struggled with its independence from the government throughout history, but Trump's actions are particularly blatant. There are examples like Arthur Burns, who miscalculated his distance from Nixon and failed. There are also examples of central banks from some countries that are not trusted at all. I hope the Federal Reserve can manage this well.

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
I felt that the Market Overview response after yesterday's CPI announcement was somewhat similar to that during the Lear Statistics. The numbers were weak, but right after the announcement, stock prices and interest rates on the Candlestick fluctuated up and down, and in the end, they rose.
It's a mystery why such movements occur, but despite the weak numbers, I imagine it might be an adjustment from the suddenly heightened concerns about a recession that began last month.
If similar results appear in today's PPI, it will be worth watching how it moves. (Will it rise again? haha)

$Inpex (1605.JP)$ $Brent Last Day Financial Futures(JUN5) (BZmain.US)$
The war ends → oil prices drop → INPEX's stock price drops... I thought it would be that way, but it feels different.
First of all, the drop in oil prices is as expected, but the war in Ukraine is still unclear. I'm not sure how to evaluate this situation.
Moreover, despite the drop in oil prices, INPEX's stock price is not decreasing easily...
Well... looking at various stock price indices such as PE, PB, EV/EBITDA, it feels a bit futile to wait for a price drop since they seem undervalued.
Still, I want to wait a little longer.

$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
Cool your head.

$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
Regarding the future of the dollar-yen, based on watching Mr. Yoshida's seminar yesterday at Monex and listening to various opinions from other Analysts... I think the yen will appreciate further.
However... after looking at the CFTC data updated yesterday, the yen-buying positions have risen to an outrageous level. By last week (the date of the data being the week before last), the yen-buying positions were already at record levels, but the data updated yesterday has surpassed that. It is an unprecedented level of yen overbuying w. I feel like it could even be described as a yen bubble.
During Mr. Yoshida's seminar at Monex, while chatting with a general participant, the opinion that resonated was, "If it reverses, it might move quickly." I also feel that risk. The yen may continue to strengthen for a little longer, but during that time, the yen-buying positions will further accumulate, and if there is some trigger that causes a reversal, I believe it will move toward a weak yen at quite a rapid speed.
I do not know what will actually happen, but I intend to keep an eye on the CFTC data.