184295026 : This time, unlike before, the global market is definitely deteriorating. First and foremost, you should be aware of that.
1 Geopolitical and Warfare Risks Rapidly Increasing
- The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war which started this week!!!
Biden, in the final few months of his presidency, finally allowed the use of long-range missiles that the USA had been hesitant to provide for Ukraine, in order to give them an advantage against Russia (Mon). Immediately after, Putin announced a relaxation of the requirements for using nuclear weapons worldwide.
- Ukraine promptly fired the "ATACMS" into Russia (Tues). The following day, late at night Japanese time, Ukraine launched the long-range missile "Storm Shadow" provided by the United Kingdom into Russia (Wed).
- Russia retaliated by launching ICBMs into Ukraine (Thurs).
2 Trump Risk
As the Trump administration takes office at the beginning of next year with an uncertain future, Trump will swiftly implement numerous policies simultaneously. It will be like a surprise attack.
The following is an excerpt from a recent Bloomberg article:
Trump recently stated in an interview with popular podcaster Joe Rogan that the semiconductor deal is very bad, claiming that Taiwan stole the USA's semiconductor business. He argued that applying high tariffs would be a better way to get companies to establish factories in the USA.
Trump suggested to Rogan, "Just impose high tariffs on semiconductor imports." He then added that there was no need for him to pay tariffs. He said that it was sufficient to build factories in the USA and remarked, "They didn't need funding to build factories."
In other words, Trump does not want to transfer cutting-edge semiconductor technology to other countries. Whether through technology transfer or through business arrangements like "other countries buying -> exporting or producing and selling locally," he wants to bring it back to Americanism, making America No. 1. He wants to thoroughly enforce complete protectionist trade and protection of industries. Therefore, global semiconductor companies like Nvidia will directly bear the brunt of Trump's protectionist regulations, and their broad business activities will no longer be possible as before.
Instead, there will be a significant increase in semiconductor development and practical experiments in the USA, various machinery automation will drastically increase. However, their performance will decline without being able to do business with the rest of the world.
Even as an amateur without expertise in economics or political science, I can't help but think that unbelievably extraordinary things will happen from next year without a doubt.
Regarding the geopolitical warfare mentioned in 1, in addition to Ukraine, Israel remains.
Regarding the Trump risk in 2, it's hard to imagine what will happen in the USA and around the world for the next four years starting next year.
Optimism about Nvidia should be abandoned. It's okay to have expectations for the company, but in the face of politics (domestic and foreign), wars, and such immense influences, a single company's performance can disappear in an instant. It's easy for a country to enact new laws, place legal constraints on corporate activities, and put significant restrictions on overseas business agreements, especially if sudden conflicts arise in the partner country or its related nations and material transportation (exports) becomes restricted due to war zones. The power dynamics between this company and the state/war are a reality.
Therefore, it's best not to place excessive expectations on Nvidia. Be prepared for the future, not necessarily for complete cashing out of all sales, but more like allocating a small amount from surplus funds that you genuinely don't plan to use for many decades ahead (retirement funds). However, concentrating over half of your personal funds in the stock of just one company like Nvidia, a method that worked from the beginning of this year until early July, is no longer viable.

184295026 : - Nvidia, no delay in Blackwell!
What are you talking about??
Is the article title incorrect?
In the previous earnings reports at the end of August,
- There were structural defects in Blackwell
- They claimed to overcome them technically and establish a full-scale production and shipping system in autumn (around November to December)
How does it look now that the truth has come out (in this earnings report)?
The structural defects of the new flagship model "Blackwell" chip, which had been mentioned since the summer, are still not overcome!!!
That's why full-scale production has been delayed to next year!!!
It's not going to be within this year!!!
In fact, this is how it was written in the economic articles from August at that time
- Blackwell is a new GPU architecture announced by Nvidia in March 2024, initially planned to start mass production and shipping in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October to December)
Therefore, the article title is incorrect.

184295026 : Ah, it's just audio. Good morning. I couldn't sleep well last night due to anxiety, only about 2 hours...

184295026 : This is already confirmed to be a significant drop after the N-Vee earnings report in the early morning of Thursday the 21st, no matter how you look at it. It will follow the same pattern as the significant drop after the earnings report at the end of August. In the previous earnings report, it was pointed out that there were structural flaws in Blackwell, and it was explained that they would overcome this in the fall and transition to full-scale production. However, the problem has not been resolved even by the fall, that's the reality.

184295026 : Blackwell, on one hand, still has structural technical issues (chip heating issues) as seen in the latest MoMo article. Additionally, with the same chip,
- An AI for generating XX answers questions (simple text output)
- How many times, and how many questions can it answer in the same amount of time as the traditional chip?
Have such specification comparisons been announced with numbers? I might have missed it.
In other words, isn't it an exaggeration to say in the article, "Sell Apple stocks before the debut of the first-generation iPhone"?
The fundamental principle of investment is to understand what the investment target is, what kind of performance it has (quantified), calculate the expected profits from it, and only then proceed with the investment.
Without doing this and investing based solely on the momentum of the overwhelming opinions and atmosphere saying, "This is good!!!" around you, will result in a "loss." Similar to the unexpected turn in the previous NV financial results at the end of August.
I don't understand the specific numerical performance of Blackwell (where one chip can handle processing that would require more than XX existing chips, and it completes the task faster than XX seconds compared to processing with XX existing chips), but in recent economic articles related to NV, it can be inferred that the performance of the same chip is higher than the company's existing products. So, it's not a complete denial of investing in NV.
Out of the completely surplus funds that are not needed immediately, allocating around 10% for purchasing stocks of the company in anticipation of its growth might be a good idea.
However, if you unreasonably expect from NV, become greedy, and pour most of your own assets into it, it will lead to the following:
With the announcement of the US CPI in July and the simultaneous foreign exchange intervention, (following the intervention, the market showed a downward trend, and then came the shock of the BOJ meeting and rate hike at the end of July, followed by the unexpected drop in US employment statistics at the beginning of August leading to a world crisis exceeding the previous boom and hype), as many Twitter stock enthusiasts were saying during the intense and heated market before that, "Invest 90% of savings in stocks, investment funds, and other investments. Those who do not do so, why do they cherish their assets as cash for the future? I don't understand." and ridiculing those who do not invest, they later became "big losers" who disappeared from various SNS platforms including Twitter, due to things like the Nikkei surpassing the previous boom and the major crash in NV financial results at the end of August. In the period from June to early July of this year, during the extreme plunge in the yen exchange rate, there were indeed many investment solicitations being made... I don't know what happened to the people who were singing silly songs like "Let's go, Nvidia~♫" Now, those who are still investing are most likely the "investment enthusiasts" who survived the August crisis. Therefore, I believe they have a good sense of timing and when to pull out. I don't think they would engage in the foolish act of allocating more than half of their own funds to a single stock (even if it is a direct purchase, concentrating on one area may lead to significant losses in the event of a downturn, effectively applying negative leverage). For something whose future prospects are speculated, but the profit outlook from its actual performance and capabilities is uncertain, a "moderate" level of greed-free investment seems appropriate based on the lessons learned from past losses.

184295026 OP : Sorry, I had a major typo
Trump -> The current weakness of the economy in the usa is due to the extremely strong dollar. Immediately,
☓ raise interest rates!!!
◯ lower interest rates!!!
Why are Powell and Trump so hostile to each other due to differences in their thinking and end up having the same ideaaaaa
It was an embarrassing typo mistake