PREMOSULTRAA
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$Snowflake (SNOW.US)$ put up a mixed quarter (beat street but showing continued decel / margin pressure). Story is getting worse and numbers for next year likely need to move lower.
Risk / reward is unattractive.
Downside of -32% to 6x my below street CY25 revs / 38x FCF. -33% to 5x my CY26 revs / 33x FCF. (Worth noting broken infra companies trade well below these multiples if that ends up being the outcome.)
Upside of -4% to 9x street CY25 revs / 34x FCF. 16% upside to street CY26.
The Qu...
Risk / reward is unattractive.
Downside of -32% to 6x my below street CY25 revs / 38x FCF. -33% to 5x my CY26 revs / 33x FCF. (Worth noting broken infra companies trade well below these multiples if that ends up being the outcome.)
Upside of -4% to 9x street CY25 revs / 34x FCF. 16% upside to street CY26.
The Qu...
![Picture](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240822/9a4896e4dfad4aadb77a8af9da0adf47.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
![Picture](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240822/ae081934629e43a2bd575618cfe68b9b.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
![Picture](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240822/a675cbf9e34b4658a3df6f04aa340fac.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
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1) Waymo is ramping monetized rides in 3 metros against what ought to be mostly fixed costs. This could be a tailwind to $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ earnings while the $5b incremental investment is likely a headwind to FCF to start.
2) I struggle to believe Waymo does not produce positive gross margins.
Waymo / $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ / $Lyft Inc (LYFT.US)$ fares are similar so let's move onto the cost side. Let's assume the average car owned by an $UBER driver is ...
2) I struggle to believe Waymo does not produce positive gross margins.
Waymo / $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ / $Lyft Inc (LYFT.US)$ fares are similar so let's move onto the cost side. Let's assume the average car owned by an $UBER driver is ...
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$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ Morgan Stanley Reiterates OW PT $360
Our key takeaways from Friday's discussion include:
1) Limited Liability for CrowdStrike: According to legal experts, CrowdStrike's liability in this sort of situation is likely limited based on typical language within these contracts, which also tend to l cover situations like a technology outage.
2) Financial Impact: Per our discussion, the overall financial impact for CRWD may be limited to some service credits, contract concession...
Our key takeaways from Friday's discussion include:
1) Limited Liability for CrowdStrike: According to legal experts, CrowdStrike's liability in this sort of situation is likely limited based on typical language within these contracts, which also tend to l cover situations like a technology outage.
2) Financial Impact: Per our discussion, the overall financial impact for CRWD may be limited to some service credits, contract concession...
![Picture](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240815/fe319cfe5bc447cb94722edbcaefa390.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
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PREMOSULTRAA
liked and voted
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $Intel (INTC.US)$
Analysts Vivek Arya, Duksan Jang, and Michael Mani unveiled a research report on Wednesday highlighting AMD's exceptional performance during the Q2 CPU battle, overshadowing Intel and capturing the spotlight across the market.
AMD's CPUs not only significantly outpaced Intel in shipments for both PCs and servers but also achieved higher ASP (Average Selling Price) growth.
Bank of America ...
Analysts Vivek Arya, Duksan Jang, and Michael Mani unveiled a research report on Wednesday highlighting AMD's exceptional performance during the Q2 CPU battle, overshadowing Intel and capturing the spotlight across the market.
AMD's CPUs not only significantly outpaced Intel in shipments for both PCs and servers but also achieved higher ASP (Average Selling Price) growth.
Bank of America ...
![Driven by AI demand, AMD edges out Intel in Q2 CPU battle!](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240809/2205d8b4b737473cb8aea4f2ef1be9dc.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
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There is a lot of good stuff happening (AWS accelerating, international profitability inflecting, NA retail showing improved margins from cost optimization) and risk / reward pretty attractive.
Numbers hard to predict qtr to qtr but seems like room for company to beat estimates annually on profits. I think gross profit grows in the mid teens going forward w/ opex growth of 7-10%; at this low op margin this spits out 35...
Numbers hard to predict qtr to qtr but seems like room for company to beat estimates annually on profits. I think gross profit grows in the mid teens going forward w/ opex growth of 7-10%; at this low op margin this spits out 35...
![$AMZN missed and guided below on consumer softness and increased investment.](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240802/a3a450f229d9461da428bf51afcf6989.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
![$AMZN missed and guided below on consumer softness and increased investment.](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240802/d40b4d3b2c8d45d4829e9b983a803d9e.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
![$AMZN missed and guided below on consumer softness and increased investment.](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240802/dcc39186ce234dceb134db17a0ea0f3d.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ stock is down more than 6% today despite promising news regarding Samsung’s fourth-generation high bandwidth memory (HBM3) chips. Indeed, the HBM3 chips have been approved by Nvidia for use in its processors for the first time ever.
For now, the chips will be used within Nvidia’s graphics processing unit (GPU), specifically its Chinese-market data center GPU called the H20. Interesting, the H20 has been developed speci...
For now, the chips will be used within Nvidia’s graphics processing unit (GPU), specifically its Chinese-market data center GPU called the H20. Interesting, the H20 has been developed speci...
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PREMOSULTRAA
liked
$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$
My numbers are ahead of the street and risk / reward still attractive. 33% upside to 25x my 2025 GAAP EPS (trading at 25x 2024 today), 59% upside on 2026 EPS. -12% downside to 18x street 2025 GAAP EPS.
Search revs of 48.5b grew 13.8% yy. AI results seem to be doing just fine as users continue to click on ads above and below. They plan to launch integrated shopping ads soon, and meanwhile doubl...
My numbers are ahead of the street and risk / reward still attractive. 33% upside to 25x my 2025 GAAP EPS (trading at 25x 2024 today), 59% upside on 2026 EPS. -12% downside to 18x street 2025 GAAP EPS.
Search revs of 48.5b grew 13.8% yy. AI results seem to be doing just fine as users continue to click on ads above and below. They plan to launch integrated shopping ads soon, and meanwhile doubl...
![$GOOGL reported a solid qtr. Great assets at a good price.](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240724/daddf61b63cc41a2b97276f9eaf191ed.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
![$GOOGL reported a solid qtr. Great assets at a good price.](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240724/bba0b81c43ed481494e41fbaa0fed038.jpg/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
![$GOOGL reported a solid qtr. Great assets at a good price.](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240724/f5fa12b8348a4a018c6dee7a8477e6d4.jpg/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
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Most sell side analysts and some buy side are buying the dip based on empiricism and betting on the momentum.
But I do think it can be very different this time.
TL;DR: multiple qtrs of headwind for $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ , tailwind for standalone BoB like Wiz and $SentinelOne (S.US)$ , partially good for $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$ .
Most of them they are betting on the empirical notion that previous events like this, e.g. $Okta (OKTA.US)$ 's brea...
But I do think it can be very different this time.
TL;DR: multiple qtrs of headwind for $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ , tailwind for standalone BoB like Wiz and $SentinelOne (S.US)$ , partially good for $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$ .
Most of them they are betting on the empirical notion that previous events like this, e.g. $Okta (OKTA.US)$ 's brea...
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$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ $SentinelOne (S.US)$ $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$
We expect reputational damage for CRWD, recovery could take time, but we expect the stock will recover. Overnight, we learned that CRWD users have been experiencing global Microsoft outage issues related to a software update that seems to be connected to CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform for Windows. The company will need to deal with a reputational black eye as a result, but it is important t...
We expect reputational damage for CRWD, recovery could take time, but we expect the stock will recover. Overnight, we learned that CRWD users have been experiencing global Microsoft outage issues related to a software update that seems to be connected to CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform for Windows. The company will need to deal with a reputational black eye as a result, but it is important t...
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$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ Analysts Keith Weiss and Josh Bae at Morgan Stanley have released a new research report stating that addressing return on investment (ROI) concerns may be $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 's top priority at present.
The report notes that Microsoft's share price performance has lagged behind its large-cap peers and the broader market over the past three months, reflecting an undervaluation of the compa...
The report notes that Microsoft's share price performance has lagged behind its large-cap peers and the broader market over the past three months, reflecting an undervaluation of the compa...
![Morgan Stanley: Microsoft's Medium-Term Prospects in 'AI Monetization' Are Undervalued](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240717/87417dd54540475bbf62e743c099b0f6.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
![Morgan Stanley: Microsoft's Medium-Term Prospects in 'AI Monetization' Are Undervalued](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240717/45201a046aca456aa9df98638fbee6a2.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
![Morgan Stanley: Microsoft's Medium-Term Prospects in 'AI Monetization' Are Undervalued](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/70040921/20240717/a1e28d61ca034a9788359f7e06479e14.png/thumb?area=100&is_public=true)
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