$Snowflake (SNOW.US)$ is a good example of second derivative:
Story not getting worse and maybe even improving.
Numbers not going down and maybe even improving.
Risk / reward doesn't matter near-term but uninteresting longer-term.
Ran more bullish upside case for kicks (attached). Growing net product rev additions each year despite much larger scale / increased competition, and giving them credit for higher incremental margins (ie efficiency) than they historically have generated.
Story not getting worse and maybe even improving.
Numbers not going down and maybe even improving.
Risk / reward doesn't matter near-term but uninteresting longer-term.
Ran more bullish upside case for kicks (attached). Growing net product rev additions each year despite much larger scale / increased competition, and giving them credit for higher incremental margins (ie efficiency) than they historically have generated.
$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ Story is getting worse as growth is slowing (grew 130% yy in Q1 and down to 44% in Q3) and margins are decreasing (32% net margin in Q1 down to 25% in Q3). They pitch it as investment to drive volumes. Bears think they were just over-earning.
Numbers moving sideways to lower.
Risk / reward longer-term seems favorable as company still growing revs / profits on an absolute basis ...
Numbers moving sideways to lower.
Risk / reward longer-term seems favorable as company still growing revs / profits on an absolute basis ...
1) Earnings revisions
Only two questions matter near-term: Is the story getting better or worse, and are numbers going up or down? That's it.
For momentum names, in either direction, that's all that matters -> is the story continuing to improve w/ beat and raises, or is the story continuing to erode with misses / guidance reductions.
There is more complexity at extremes (ie second derivatives) that also works -> the story h...
Only two questions matter near-term: Is the story getting better or worse, and are numbers going up or down? That's it.
For momentum names, in either direction, that's all that matters -> is the story continuing to improve w/ beat and raises, or is the story continuing to erode with misses / guidance reductions.
There is more complexity at extremes (ie second derivatives) that also works -> the story h...
17
To help you navigate the 2024 election, this guide provides an overview of crucial poll closing times across different states, adjusted to Eastern Standard Time (EST). Please note that your polling place may close earlier, so it's essential to confirm the exact closing time with your local authorities.![]()
The table below outlines the latest poll closing times for each state, adjusted to EST. States that span multiple time zones and have uniform local c...
The table below outlines the latest poll closing times for each state, adjusted to EST. States that span multiple time zones and have uniform local c...
3
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ reported a solid beat on growth and margins along with positive commentary across the business lines.
Story likely moves sideways (positive business fundamentals offset by concerns about AI impact on search, and regulatory impacts) while numbers move higher (revenue / profits seem low but FCF seems high).
Risk / reward remains decent even w/ regulatory overhang. I am denting the multiple by 10% to account for potential loss of 10% of profits. Other point I wo...
Story likely moves sideways (positive business fundamentals offset by concerns about AI impact on search, and regulatory impacts) while numbers move higher (revenue / profits seem low but FCF seems high).
Risk / reward remains decent even w/ regulatory overhang. I am denting the multiple by 10% to account for potential loss of 10% of profits. Other point I wo...
13
1
The ordering of reports I think is important with Google results setting expectations On Tuesday for many of the quarterly reports later in the week.
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$
Google’s stock dropped 5% on 7/24 the day after reporting Q2 results that included a 3% miss on Youtube revenues and a cut to overall forward revenue estimates despite strong Google Cloud results. In addition, unfavorable anti-trust court rulin...
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$
Google’s stock dropped 5% on 7/24 the day after reporting Q2 results that included a 3% miss on Youtube revenues and a cut to overall forward revenue estimates despite strong Google Cloud results. In addition, unfavorable anti-trust court rulin...
10
1. His client's Q3 spend on both $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ and $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ is bigger than expected. The reason is that both companies are getting better at AI.
2. For $META specific, he mentions $META's mid-quarter rollout of the functionality for advertisers to integrate their CRM systems and their analytics systems to the $META ad platform 24/7 (as an always-on API feed) as the »biggest upgrade $META has had to ...
2. For $META specific, he mentions $META's mid-quarter rollout of the functionality for advertisers to integrate their CRM systems and their analytics systems to the $META ad platform 24/7 (as an always-on API feed) as the »biggest upgrade $META has had to ...
+1
2
1
Market Analysis
1. Goldman Sachs' Republican outperform versus underperform basket is currently outperforming the Democratic outperform versus underperform basket.
2. The trading team at Goldman Sachs, including Faris Mourad, anticipates significant volatility in a basket of stocks closely tied to Republican policies if Trump wins the election.
- "Since this summer, the sensitivity of our Republican policy outperform basket to election events suggests that if Trump wins the pres...
1. Goldman Sachs' Republican outperform versus underperform basket is currently outperforming the Democratic outperform versus underperform basket.
2. The trading team at Goldman Sachs, including Faris Mourad, anticipates significant volatility in a basket of stocks closely tied to Republican policies if Trump wins the election.
- "Since this summer, the sensitivity of our Republican policy outperform basket to election events suggests that if Trump wins the pres...
3
It's no secret that $ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 's stock price tends to track big tech's capex. A few observations:
▶️The major upward revisions for capex came in 2024, as 2023 was still more about post-COVID normalization and cost-cutting. Some firms ( $AMZN $META) even reduced capex in 2023.
- 2025E consensus for the "Big 4" (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) combined moved from $167B (Jan 2023) to $182B (Jan 2024) to $230B (Oct 2024).
- 2024E consensus shifted from $160B (Jan 2023) to $170B (Jan 2024) t...
▶️The major upward revisions for capex came in 2024, as 2023 was still more about post-COVID normalization and cost-cutting. Some firms ( $AMZN $META) even reduced capex in 2023.
- 2025E consensus for the "Big 4" (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) combined moved from $167B (Jan 2023) to $182B (Jan 2024) to $230B (Oct 2024).
- 2024E consensus shifted from $160B (Jan 2023) to $170B (Jan 2024) t...
3
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ SEVERAL SCENARIOS THAT WE CAN VIEW THIS:
1. Earnings Jitter such as in July but without the Carry Trade. Means more downside to go on tech $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 121, for example, $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ back to 480.
2. Punish late chasers due to $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 140 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ New ATH today profit taking. But if $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ holds 128, still good.
3. They're staring to take profit an...
1. Earnings Jitter such as in July but without the Carry Trade. Means more downside to go on tech $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 121, for example, $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ back to 480.
2. Punish late chasers due to $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 140 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ New ATH today profit taking. But if $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ holds 128, still good.
3. They're staring to take profit an...
4
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