As stocks soar, a bear capitulates. Piper Sandler Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says the S&P 500 will finish the year at all-time highs and near 5,000. Last year, he called for the $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ to fall to 3,225 by December before raising his target to 3,600-3,800.
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BANK OF AMERICA STRATEGISTS EXPECTS THE FED TO ANNOUNCE PLANS TO BEGIN TAPERING THE RUNOFF OF ITS TREASURIES HOLDINGS IN MARCH, COINCIDING WITH ITS FIRST 25BPS RATE CUT
DO YOU AGREE?![]()
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
DO YOU AGREE?
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
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This is incredible:
Interest rate cut expectations in 2024 are down ~10% over the last 10 days.
Still, markets are expecting a massive Fed pivot during 2024.
6 months ago, markets saw up to 2 more interest rate HIKES in 2024.
Then, we saw markets add 150 basis points of rate CUTS to their forecast in the last 2 months of 2023.
This was the biggest 2-month easing in financial conditions in history.
Fed pivot expectations are through the roof.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
Interest rate cut expectations in 2024 are down ~10% over the last 10 days.
Still, markets are expecting a massive Fed pivot during 2024.
6 months ago, markets saw up to 2 more interest rate HIKES in 2024.
Then, we saw markets add 150 basis points of rate CUTS to their forecast in the last 2 months of 2023.
This was the biggest 2-month easing in financial conditions in history.
Fed pivot expectations are through the roof.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
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1. U.S. CPI Inflation - Thursday
2. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday
3. U.S. PPI Inflation - Friday
4. JPMorgan Chase $JPM Earnings - Friday
5. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ $Citigroup (C.US)$ $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ Earnings - Friday
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
2. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday
3. U.S. PPI Inflation - Friday
4. JPMorgan Chase $JPM Earnings - Friday
5. $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ $Citigroup (C.US)$ $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ Earnings - Friday
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
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Oil prices are rising for a second straight day amid concerns over Middle Eastern supply worries as tensions in the region escalate and after a larger-than-expected drawdown on US inventories.
News of further tensions in the Red Sea combined with a full shutdown of Libya’s Sharara oil fields due to local protests have brought supply concerns back under the spotlight. Oil prices jumped around 3% on Wednesday, snapping a 5-day losing streak as investors frette...
News of further tensions in the Red Sea combined with a full shutdown of Libya’s Sharara oil fields due to local protests have brought supply concerns back under the spotlight. Oil prices jumped around 3% on Wednesday, snapping a 5-day losing streak as investors frette...
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Here are how some of the world’s most famous hedge funds performed in 2023:
D.E. Shaw: +10%
Citadel: +15%
Pershing Square: +27%
U.S. Congress: +35%
Nancy Pelosi: +61%
D.E. Shaw: +10%
Citadel: +15%
Pershing Square: +27%
U.S. Congress: +35%
Nancy Pelosi: +61%
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All of the sell-side banks and other Fed watcher tip-sheets think the Fed's next move is a cut.
But there's a wide dispersion of views about when the cuts begin (some in March, some in the summer) and how many cuts the central bank will deliver in 2024.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
But there's a wide dispersion of views about when the cuts begin (some in March, some in the summer) and how many cuts the central bank will deliver in 2024.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
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It was inevitable. 0DTEs aren't going anywhere. If anything, they're becoming a bigger part of institutional strategy.
Wall Street Quants Warm Up to Zero-Day Options Amid Trading Boom - Bloomberg
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
Wall Street Quants Warm Up to Zero-Day Options Amid Trading Boom - Bloomberg
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
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The S&P 500's $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ performance each year since 1994
1994: +0.4%
1995: +38.1%
1996: +22.5%
1997: +33.5%
1998: +28.7%
1999: +20.4%
2000: -9.7%
2001: -11.8%
2002: -21.6%
2003: +28.2%
2004: +10.7%
2005: +4.8%
2006: +15.9%
2007: +5.1%
2008: -36.8%
2009: +26.4%
2010: +15.1%
2011: +1.9%
2012: +16%
2013: +32.3%
2014: +13.5%
2015: +1.3%
2016: +12%
2017: +21.7%
2018: -4.6%
2019: +31.2%
2020: +18.4%
2021: +28.8%
2022: -18.2%
2023:* +26.1% (So far)
1994: +0.4%
1995: +38.1%
1996: +22.5%
1997: +33.5%
1998: +28.7%
1999: +20.4%
2000: -9.7%
2001: -11.8%
2002: -21.6%
2003: +28.2%
2004: +10.7%
2005: +4.8%
2006: +15.9%
2007: +5.1%
2008: -36.8%
2009: +26.4%
2010: +15.1%
2011: +1.9%
2012: +16%
2013: +32.3%
2014: +13.5%
2015: +1.3%
2016: +12%
2017: +21.7%
2018: -4.6%
2019: +31.2%
2020: +18.4%
2021: +28.8%
2022: -18.2%
2023:* +26.1% (So far)
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