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With earnings around the corner, what's hot for the US market so far? Join Olivia Higgins as she reports live from the U.S. in the Moomoo Markets live show series. We will discuss current themes surrounding the U.S. Market, earnings season and how investing relates to hot topics tech, sports and even the Superbowl. Olivia ( @olivehiggo) will guide you towards key questions and analysis as we interview our experts fro...
Moomoo Markets: What's hot for the US market - Are we at a turning point in 2024?
Jan 26 07:00
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Happy Friday, mooers! Welcome back to Weekly Buzz, where we review the news, performance, and community sentiment of the selected buzzing stocks on moomoo platform based on search and message volumes of this week! Answer the Weekly Topic question for a chance to win an award next week!
All prices and news updates as of 10/27
Make Your Choice
Weekly Buzz | Indexes Move Into Correction Territory on Earnings De...
All prices and news updates as of 10/27
Make Your Choice
Weekly Buzz | Indexes Move Into Correction Territory on Earnings De...
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$ContextLogic (WISH.US)$ Using IPO cash to buy? That’s sell high buy low right there 😂
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I believe everyone has heard that Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, has sold its previous holdings. $Berkshire Hathaway-B (BRK.B.US)$ Although they made a lot of profits, the selling price was not at a high level. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ The stock god has always advocated heavy buying and long-term holding. There are basically three possibilities for this time of selling. Which one do you think it is? Let's take a vote first:
My personal opinion: The stock god would not change his own image just to exploit others.![]()
If it was done by his temporary workers without his knowledge, that's not possible either. I haven't heard anything about him being itchy. So I think either the stock god made a mistake or Taiwan Semiconductor is currently not doing well.
I have always believed that the current popular semiconductor stocks are significantly overvalued, especially $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ ， $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ And $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ . Among them, nvda is the most seriously overvalued. Will it drop due to overvaluation? Not necessarily, as long as no one thinks of themselves as a bargain hunter, the game of passing the buck can continue.
If we say nvda is like the game of passing the buck, even if you accidentally become a bargain hunter, at least you have a bouquet of flowers.![]()
However, many junk stocks are just passing 💩. If you accidentally buy them, you can only keep them to yourself. That's why I won't touch these junk stuff...
My personal opinion: The stock god would not change his own image just to exploit others.
I have always believed that the current popular semiconductor stocks are significantly overvalued, especially $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ ， $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ And $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ . Among them, nvda is the most seriously overvalued. Will it drop due to overvaluation? Not necessarily, as long as no one thinks of themselves as a bargain hunter, the game of passing the buck can continue.
If we say nvda is like the game of passing the buck, even if you accidentally become a bargain hunter, at least you have a bouquet of flowers.
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Japan, finally couldn't hold on anymore and it is difficult to continue with loose monetary policy. China wants to loosen, but the RMB is not a freely convertible currency. Currently, all developed countries are reducing liquidity to curb inflation.
In my opinion, global inflation is mainly caused by two factors that are difficult to eliminate. This also leads to the difficulty of returning to loose monetary policy in the next few years:
1. De-globalization. Under the drive of the global market, material production will automatically shift to labor-intensive and low-cost regions, such as China and Southeast Asia. The prices of resource commodities will also be optimized to the lowest level due to the global market. Both of these aspects cannot be optimized in the process of de-globalization. For example, inflation 40 years ago and today are both related to the inability of crude oil to trade freely. The changes in the relationship between China and the United States have also caused some production capacity to flow out of China and have to seek alternative options with higher costs. Something that costs $1 to produce in the United States may only cost a few cents to produce in China, and Southeast Asia may achieve low costs, but it may not be able to replace the capacity and integrity of China's industry chain. De-globalization will inevitably lead to irreversible upward inflation.
2. Population. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the number of people participating in the labor force in the United States has plummeted. You can refer to Powell's original words for specific information, I just quoted them. The lifting of restrictions in China will also lead to the same problem. With the decrease in labor force, the labor market will inevitably be tight, and it will be difficult to control the spiral rise of wages and prices.
Unless inflation is left unchecked, we will be in a high interest rate environment for the next few years. Therefore, the investment logic has changed. Those companies that rely on financing for growth need to be cautious. Companies that rely on financing to stay afloat should be avoided as much as possible. You can take a 0.1% position to bet on its survival, but speculation is not investment.
In my opinion, global inflation is mainly caused by two factors that are difficult to eliminate. This also leads to the difficulty of returning to loose monetary policy in the next few years:
1. De-globalization. Under the drive of the global market, material production will automatically shift to labor-intensive and low-cost regions, such as China and Southeast Asia. The prices of resource commodities will also be optimized to the lowest level due to the global market. Both of these aspects cannot be optimized in the process of de-globalization. For example, inflation 40 years ago and today are both related to the inability of crude oil to trade freely. The changes in the relationship between China and the United States have also caused some production capacity to flow out of China and have to seek alternative options with higher costs. Something that costs $1 to produce in the United States may only cost a few cents to produce in China, and Southeast Asia may achieve low costs, but it may not be able to replace the capacity and integrity of China's industry chain. De-globalization will inevitably lead to irreversible upward inflation.
2. Population. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the number of people participating in the labor force in the United States has plummeted. You can refer to Powell's original words for specific information, I just quoted them. The lifting of restrictions in China will also lead to the same problem. With the decrease in labor force, the labor market will inevitably be tight, and it will be difficult to control the spiral rise of wages and prices.
Unless inflation is left unchecked, we will be in a high interest rate environment for the next few years. Therefore, the investment logic has changed. Those companies that rely on financing for growth need to be cautious. Companies that rely on financing to stay afloat should be avoided as much as possible. You can take a 0.1% position to bet on its survival, but speculation is not investment.
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I am heavily invested in the Chinese stock market, either with leveraged etfs. I predicted the drop in US stocks yesterday, but forgot that the domestic stocks tend to follow whoever falls, and basically did not reduce my positions much.![]()
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Today I gave back some profits, but still have to cut positions painfully. Currently, the long position in China is about 15% remaining. tqqq only has 5% left, if there is a rebound tomorrow, I will clear the position. I significantly reduced my position in ery, and switched to fngd and soxs, as I mentioned earlier. Currently, the short position is nearly 50%, cannot have more. Long position 20%, tlt 20%.
In addition, I also switched my 401k retirement fund from the money market fund to bonds (in August, it was switched from the S&P to the money market). That side is not considered a position.
The domestic epidemic is developing rapidly, I didn't expect it to happen so quickly. The outbreak of the epidemic is a bearish news, funds are finding excuses to withdraw, and this rebound is almost about to turn. As I mentioned before, this wave is definitely a bear market rebound, not a reversal. For the Chinese stock market to reverse against the trend, it probably needs to retest the bottom without falling below. By then, the bearish impact of the epidemic should have been exhausted.
I will hold onto the profits from taking profits first, I didn't buy all in on tlt. Let's wait and see, tlt may have a pullback. But I think it definitely won't fall below the previous low. In a previous article, I also mentioned the investment logic of tlt, even if it falls, the risk is much smaller than the stock market.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
In china, waiting for the large cap...
In addition, I also switched my 401k retirement fund from the money market fund to bonds (in August, it was switched from the S&P to the money market). That side is not considered a position.
The domestic epidemic is developing rapidly, I didn't expect it to happen so quickly. The outbreak of the epidemic is a bearish news, funds are finding excuses to withdraw, and this rebound is almost about to turn. As I mentioned before, this wave is definitely a bear market rebound, not a reversal. For the Chinese stock market to reverse against the trend, it probably needs to retest the bottom without falling below. By then, the bearish impact of the epidemic should have been exhausted.
I will hold onto the profits from taking profits first, I didn't buy all in on tlt. Let's wait and see, tlt may have a pullback. But I think it definitely won't fall below the previous low. In a previous article, I also mentioned the investment logic of tlt, even if it falls, the risk is much smaller than the stock market.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
In china, waiting for the large cap...
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Up 10 Down 20 : in other words Nvidia is cheap