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$ContextLogic(WISH.US)$  Using IPO cash to buy? That’s sell high buy low right there 😂

I'm sure everyone has heard of it, Buffett's $Berkshire Hathaway-B(BRK.B.US)$ , I have already sold the one I opened before $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$ Although it also made quite a bit of money, the selling price was not high. Stock owners have always advocated heavy purchases and long-term holdings. There are basically three possibilities for this shipment. Which do you think they are? Let's vote first:
My personal opinion: Gods don't change their personality in order to cut everyone's chives If it was done by a temporary worker under his command, he himself didn't know; this is also impossible; I haven't heard that his body is itchy. So I think either the stock company made a mistake, or TSMC is currently not working.
I've always thought that current popular semiconductor stocks are seriously overvalued, especially $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$， $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ ， $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$ as well $ASML Holding(ASML.US)$ . Among them, NVDA is the most seriously overrated. Will the overestimation fall? Not necessarily; as long as no one feels like they are the taker, hitting the drums will continue.
If NVDA hits the drum and spreads, even if you accidentally take over, you'll still have a bouquet of flowers Well, a lot of junk stocks are just drumming 💩. If you accidentally take over, you can only keep yourself and eat them. So I won't touch this crap...

日本，终于顶不住了，难以继续维持宽松的货币政策。中国倒是要宽松，但rmb不是自由货币。目前所有发达国家，都在收水，以抑制通过膨胀。
我个人认为，全球性的通货膨胀主要因为两个因素，都难以消除，这也导致了未来几年，难以回到宽松的货币政策：
1. 逆全球化。在全球化市场的驱动下，物质生产会自动转移到劳动力丰富、成本低廉的地区，比如中国和东南亚。而资源类商品的价格，也会因为全球化的市场，而自动优化到最低。在逆全球化的过程中，这两方面都无法优化。比如40年前和今天的通胀，都和原油无法自由贸易有关。中美的关系变化，也让一些产能流出中国，不得不寻求更高成本的替代选项。美国生产成本1美元的东西，在中国生产可能只要几每分，而东南亚可能会实现低成本，但未必能代替中国的产能和产业链的完整性。逆全球化，必然导致通货膨胀不可逆的上升。
2. 人口。疫情爆发以来，美国参与劳动的人口骤减。具体的可以参看鲍威尔的原话，我只是拿来。中国的解封，也会导致同样的问题。劳动力减少，劳动市场必然紧俏，薪资、物价的螺旋上升很难控制。
除非放任通胀不管，未来几年，我们将一直处于高利率的环境中。所以，投...

I'm heavy on the Chinese stock market, or leveraged ETF. Yesterday, I guessed that US stocks were going to fall, but I forgot that everyone in the motherland stock market falls like it. Basically, there hasn't been much reduction in positions I paid back some profits today, but I still had to endure the pain and reduce my positions. Currently, the remaining positions left when going long in China are about 15%. tqqq has only 5% left. If it is drawn back tomorrow, it will be cleared. ERY I drastically reduced my position and transferred to FNGD and SOXS for the reason I mentioned before. Currently, the short position is close to 50%, so no more. 20% long, 20% tlt.
Furthermore, I exchanged my 401k pension from money market funds to bonds (S&P to money market in August), so it doesn't count as a position.
The domestic epidemic is progressing a bit rapidly; I really thought it would be this fast. The outbreak of the epidemic is bad news. The funds have found an excuse to withdraw, and this wave of rebound is about to turn around. As I mentioned before, this wave is definitely a rebound in the bear market, not a reversal. If the Chinese stock market wants to reverse the trend, it is estimated that it will bottom out again and not fall below. At that time, the epidemic should have run out of steam.
I held onto the take-profit money first; I didn't buy all of the TLT. Let's check it out first; tlt will probably call back. But I don't think it will fall below the previous low. I also mentioned TLT's investment logic in a previous article. Even if it falls, the risk is much less than the stock market.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US)$
On the Chinese side, wait for the big market...

$Caterpillar(CAT.US)$ 187 buy