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70233049 Male ID: 70233049
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    如果通胀上行后,美联储收紧货币政策,美股会不会发生大幅下跌?我们认为这种概率比较小,历史显示,美股主要是由业绩增长单一因子决定的,在经济复苏和业绩复苏的时间段,即便美联储适当收紧货币政策,股市大跌的概率并不大。
    但是值得一提的是,美联储收紧货币政策的话,对新兴市场国家的股市影响会较大。
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    Now that they are cracking down on shorting everywhere, hedge funds are more cautious about short selling. The sharp rise in short selling positions not only caused losses, but also caused an imbalance in net exposure, and the total exposure of the fund was too large. Therefore, the fund's choice is either to continue to close short positions, sell long positions, and reduce total exposure, or abandon individual stocks and sell short stock index futures instead. This is probably why stock index futures for US stocks have always been sluggish recently. Whether it's selling long stocks or shorting stock index futures, there is pressure on the market.
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    对冲基金的策略调整也可能是重要原因。很多对冲基金是多/空模式,对市场风险敞口几乎为零,然后加了几倍的杠杆。这种模式是大量做多,也大量做空,挣的是两者的差。现在做空的一方被大量几倍的轧空,损失惨重。对冲基金必须收缩战线,全面收缩资产负债表。因此,在了结做空仓位的同时,做多的仓位也必须卖掉。由于他们的多仓,都是之前涨的很好的股票,全面卖出,必然扰动市场,造成下跌。
    [ARK Daily Tracking] Chasing the Rise! It added nearly 600,000 shares of Tencent and also bought Baidu and JD
    ARK's key deals on Wednesday were:
    Significantly increase holdings in China Securities! Baidu, JD, and Tencent were all guests
    Increased holdings of Tencent Holdings (ADR) by 565,000 shares, spending up to 50 million US dollars;
    It added 39,600 shares of Baidu and spent about 10 million US dollars;
    It added 83,600 shares of JD and spent about 8 million US dollars;
    The holdings of Tesla were slightly reduced by about 10,000 shares, and the holdings of Iridium Communications and Workhorse Group were drastically reduced by two individual shares.
    Figure 2 shows the positions of ARK's funds in Tencent Holdings (ADR) in the past 60 days;
    Figure 3 shows ARK's fund frequently increasing its Baidu holdings in recent days.
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    Looking at 2020 as a whole, the overall performance of clean energy stocks was impressive. The Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN), which tracks a basket of solar stocks, returned 234% last year, while the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE: PBW), which invests more extensively in various alternative energy sources, had a return of 205%. In contrast, the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, has a return of 18%.
    Undoubtedly, the results of the US presidential election contributed to the rise of these clean energy assets. Unlike Trump, who promotes fossil fuels, Biden has proposed a $2 trillion climate plan with the goal of “achieving a carbon-free electricity industry by 2035” — which is more aggressive than California's goal of producing carbon-free energy in 2045.
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    2021年1月20日 周三
    ① 09:30 中国至1月20日一年期贷款市场报价利率
    ② 15:00 德国12月PPI月率
    ③ 15:00 英国12月CPI及零售物价指数月率
    ④ 18:00 欧元区12月CPI年率终值及月率
    ⑤ 21:30 加拿大12月CPI月率
    ⑥ 23:00 加拿大央行公布利率决议
    ⑦ 23:00 美国1月NAHB房产市场指数
    ⑧ 次日00:30 美国举行第46任总统就职典礼
    ⑨ 次日01:00 英国央行行长贝利出席论坛
    ⑩ 次日03:30 纽约原油2月期货完成场内最后交易
    ⑪ 次日05:30 美国至1月15日当周API原油库存
    The underlying logic of Bitcoin's sharp rise is to use the credit system to become a global payment currency like the US dollar. If this logic were established in the future, it wouldn't be surprising that Bitcoin would rise to 1 million US dollars because it was an amount obtained through an algorithm, and this amount is limited to the 5 million that have been lost forever, and the remaining 16 million are left in existence
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