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For anyone worried about the Fed Taper. First of all, yields fell the last time the Fed tapered. The bond market fully anticipates this event -- no one will be shocked if Powell announces a 10 month taper. Second, this time around, the Treasury is reducing bond issuances. So demand for bonds from the Fed will fall, but the Treasury is reducing the supply at the same time. The tightening effects of tapering will be negated
The bond market has already priced in two rate hikes for 2022. Growth is projected to slow down in 2022 and if the rate of slowdown is greater than anticipated, those rate hikes will be push out to 2023. The combination of slowing growth in the value sector and 2023 rate hike is bullish for tech
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
The bond market has already priced in two rate hikes for 2022. Growth is projected to slow down in 2022 and if the rate of slowdown is greater than anticipated, those rate hikes will be push out to 2023. The combination of slowing growth in the value sector and 2023 rate hike is bullish for tech
$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
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$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ is probably one of the greatest turnaround stories ever, and investors have made incredible returns in this counter over the last six years. Under the leadership of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD has showcased tremendous business execution, and the company delivered yet another blowout quarter on Tuesday.
As some of you may already know, I am an " $Intel (INTC.US)$ bull"; however, I am not an "AMD bear" like some of the commenters in my recent articles have suggested. Today, I would like to explain my positioning in the semiconductor sector in some greater detail. First of all, we own Intel as a part of our dividend growth portfolio, which also consists of the likes of $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$. Since AMD offers no dividend, it is unsuitable for BTM's DGI portfolio. On the other hand, AMD's risk/reward is keeping the stock out of our Goldilocks Zone (high growth) portfolio. Within this portfolio, I own $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ from a very low cost-basis; however, I am not adding at current valuations.
Today, AMD's market cap stands at ~$150B, and it is quickly closing the gap on Intel, which is now valued at just ~$195B. Now, Intel does ~5x AMD's revenue, commands higher gross margins, and produces ~6x AMD's free cash flow. Considering these numbers, AMD seems expensive; however, growth is on AMD's side due to superior products, product roadmap, and business execution.
As some of you may already know, I am an " $Intel (INTC.US)$ bull"; however, I am not an "AMD bear" like some of the commenters in my recent articles have suggested. Today, I would like to explain my positioning in the semiconductor sector in some greater detail. First of all, we own Intel as a part of our dividend growth portfolio, which also consists of the likes of $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$. Since AMD offers no dividend, it is unsuitable for BTM's DGI portfolio. On the other hand, AMD's risk/reward is keeping the stock out of our Goldilocks Zone (high growth) portfolio. Within this portfolio, I own $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ from a very low cost-basis; however, I am not adding at current valuations.
Today, AMD's market cap stands at ~$150B, and it is quickly closing the gap on Intel, which is now valued at just ~$195B. Now, Intel does ~5x AMD's revenue, commands higher gross margins, and produces ~6x AMD's free cash flow. Considering these numbers, AMD seems expensive; however, growth is on AMD's side due to superior products, product roadmap, and business execution.
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$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ In Q3, AMD's revenue blew past analyst estimates to come in at $4.3B (up 54% y/y), and looking at the quarterly sales trend, it is fair to say that AMD's business is gaining momentum. Although the growth rates are decelerating due to tough comps from last year's PC boom, AMD's data center business is on fire and set to deliver greater numbers in 2022 and beyond.
Here are the highlights from each of AMD's business segments:
- AMD computing and graphics segment
- AMD Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-custom Segment
With its Ryzen, Radeon, and EPYC processors, AMD is winning market share across the CPU, GPU, and server (data center) markets. Over the last few years, AMD's products have been far superior to those of Intel's, and with a strong product roadmap, AMD looks good value for a greater chunk of the expanding semiconductor industry.
As the industry continues to grapple with supply shortages, AMD has focused its resources on higher-value chips. Naturally, AMD's gross margins have expanded significantly over the last few quarters. In Q3, AMD's gross margins improved by ~450 basis-points y/y to reach 48%. With a sharp rise in margins, AMD is delivering massive operating leverage, as evidenced by the ~111% y/y jump in operating income. As you can see below, AMD's operating margins have risen from 16% (Q3 2020) to 22% (Q3 2021). Overall, AMD's business is firing on all cylinders with rapid sales growth, massive margin expansion, and a big jump in profitability.
As it turns into a cash printing machine, AMD's balance sheet is turning into a fortress. At the end of Q3, AMD had cash balances of ~$3.6B with total debt of just ~0.3B. After teetering near bankruptcy at the start of the 2010s, it is fair to say that AMD has come leaps and bounds. Right now, AMD looks very well-positioned (from a financial and technological perspective) to win a more significant market share in a secular growth industry. With ample cash on its balance sheet, AMD used nearly all of its free cash flow on repurchasing shares as the company bought ~$750M worth of its own stock in Q3. In the future, we can expect these buybacks to become a routine affair.
For Q4, AMD is guiding for $4.4-4.6B in revenue on higher gross and operating margins of 49.5% and 25%, respectively. Hence, AMD's business momentum is likely to continue in the next quarter.
When answering questions from an analyst on the earnings call, Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, said that the semiconductor shortages might end in 2022, and while competitive pressures are rising, she is confident in AMD's product roadmap. Furthermore, she affirmed that the demand environment is set to remain strong throughout 2022, with data center demand coming in hot, while the PC market is expected to remain flattish.
Although AMD's management stopped short of guiding for 2022, the company is likely to deliver rapid growth next year too (my estimate is ~25% y/y (tough comps)). With a strong leadership team at the helm, AMD is rapidly turning into a dominant semiconductor company. I am not convinced about AMD's ability to maintain its margins in 2022 due to growing expectations of a price war (and more competitive products) from Intel. Regardless, I see AMD as a secular growth stock with massive potential. With all of this information in mind, let us now attempt to find AMD's fair value and expected returns to see if it is a good investment.
Here are the highlights from each of AMD's business segments:
- AMD computing and graphics segment
- AMD Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-custom Segment
With its Ryzen, Radeon, and EPYC processors, AMD is winning market share across the CPU, GPU, and server (data center) markets. Over the last few years, AMD's products have been far superior to those of Intel's, and with a strong product roadmap, AMD looks good value for a greater chunk of the expanding semiconductor industry.
As the industry continues to grapple with supply shortages, AMD has focused its resources on higher-value chips. Naturally, AMD's gross margins have expanded significantly over the last few quarters. In Q3, AMD's gross margins improved by ~450 basis-points y/y to reach 48%. With a sharp rise in margins, AMD is delivering massive operating leverage, as evidenced by the ~111% y/y jump in operating income. As you can see below, AMD's operating margins have risen from 16% (Q3 2020) to 22% (Q3 2021). Overall, AMD's business is firing on all cylinders with rapid sales growth, massive margin expansion, and a big jump in profitability.
As it turns into a cash printing machine, AMD's balance sheet is turning into a fortress. At the end of Q3, AMD had cash balances of ~$3.6B with total debt of just ~0.3B. After teetering near bankruptcy at the start of the 2010s, it is fair to say that AMD has come leaps and bounds. Right now, AMD looks very well-positioned (from a financial and technological perspective) to win a more significant market share in a secular growth industry. With ample cash on its balance sheet, AMD used nearly all of its free cash flow on repurchasing shares as the company bought ~$750M worth of its own stock in Q3. In the future, we can expect these buybacks to become a routine affair.
For Q4, AMD is guiding for $4.4-4.6B in revenue on higher gross and operating margins of 49.5% and 25%, respectively. Hence, AMD's business momentum is likely to continue in the next quarter.
When answering questions from an analyst on the earnings call, Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, said that the semiconductor shortages might end in 2022, and while competitive pressures are rising, she is confident in AMD's product roadmap. Furthermore, she affirmed that the demand environment is set to remain strong throughout 2022, with data center demand coming in hot, while the PC market is expected to remain flattish.
Although AMD's management stopped short of guiding for 2022, the company is likely to deliver rapid growth next year too (my estimate is ~25% y/y (tough comps)). With a strong leadership team at the helm, AMD is rapidly turning into a dominant semiconductor company. I am not convinced about AMD's ability to maintain its margins in 2022 due to growing expectations of a price war (and more competitive products) from Intel. Regardless, I see AMD as a secular growth stock with massive potential. With all of this information in mind, let us now attempt to find AMD's fair value and expected returns to see if it is a good investment.
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$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ unfortunately Northland capital had to let Gus go after such a bad call on Amd. Fortunately he is interviewing again with a promising future.
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$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$
Baby Kenny G and Botak Gary G are sitting on the tree
Baby Kenny G and Botak Gary G are sitting on the tree
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Sadie007
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$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ trying to watch for a jump and buy moment but everyone and their cat thinks I want to talk on the phone!
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$Apple (AAPL.US)$ Pretty new to this Group.☺️ Should i BUY IN NOW? I hv always wantedto be Part of APPL. I now hv a few $$ thinking this might be the time?💅🏻 Anybody holding the Crystal Ball?😬 Ok I should just jump in already !💪🏼
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$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ patio expansion almost complete...firepit relocated(and a little bigger!). Just need to cut some blocks to face the firepit and run the patio blocks around the veggie garden.
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