王婧彤0722
commented on
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
TLT is still in a continuous plunge 📉
In the short term, there may be an accelerated sprint to the bottom, followed by a high probability of a rebound. But the rebound does not necessarily mean a reversal.
Currently, I plan to enter the market in batches, generally increasing my position by 10% for every 10% drop. I plan to buy at around 85, 80, 75, and 70.
Will TLT really drop to 70? Nothing is impossible. Bill Ackman's bearish article on bonds, I don't know if everyone has read it, but currently, his direction has been correct. I think the long-term interest rate he deduced at 5.5% should be the bottom line for TLT, corresponding to a price around 70.
Will it actually go that low? No one knows. But even if the peak of long-term bonds reaches 5.5%, it is unlikely to be sustained, and there will be rate cuts later, leading to a rebound in TLT. Although the dividends may not be great during this period, they still exist. However, in trading, one must be able to endure the worst outcomes. When darkness falls before dawn, you can't see the dawn.
I have opposed buying multiple times $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ , still opposed at the moment. If TLT drops to 70, then TMF will have to be halved again, dropping to around two dollars. Plus, there are no dividends. That would be really tough.
However, ...
TLT is still in a continuous plunge 📉
In the short term, there may be an accelerated sprint to the bottom, followed by a high probability of a rebound. But the rebound does not necessarily mean a reversal.
Currently, I plan to enter the market in batches, generally increasing my position by 10% for every 10% drop. I plan to buy at around 85, 80, 75, and 70.
Will TLT really drop to 70? Nothing is impossible. Bill Ackman's bearish article on bonds, I don't know if everyone has read it, but currently, his direction has been correct. I think the long-term interest rate he deduced at 5.5% should be the bottom line for TLT, corresponding to a price around 70.
Will it actually go that low? No one knows. But even if the peak of long-term bonds reaches 5.5%, it is unlikely to be sustained, and there will be rate cuts later, leading to a rebound in TLT. Although the dividends may not be great during this period, they still exist. However, in trading, one must be able to endure the worst outcomes. When darkness falls before dawn, you can't see the dawn.
I have opposed buying multiple times $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ , still opposed at the moment. If TLT drops to 70, then TMF will have to be halved again, dropping to around two dollars. Plus, there are no dividends. That would be really tough.
However, ...
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王婧彤0722
commented on
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
It has fallen below the previous low, and filling the earlier gap of the jump is only a step away, basically powerless to turn back. Looking down to around 220.
I hold a 3% position at a cost of 250, considering it as a bottom position, and do not intend to sell.
I do not plan to short, but rather wait to add positions around 220 when it falls. However, I am unlikely to heavily increase my position unless there is a very clear reversal pattern signaling the end of the downtrend.
Tesla is my favorite stock to play, without a doubt. Hoping for another opportunity this year to play in the third wave.
The current pullback in the US stock market may continue until September. I am not in a hurry to bottom fish.
This chart shows the stocks that would have the biggest impact on US stocks if China falls into a recession, for reference only. I hold the four stocks below in the chart.
$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ ， $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ and $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ I only have less than 5% position in these three stocks, but the decline is quite brutal...I also sold calls, collected the premiums, but it can't make up for the double-digit decline.
Energy is my top position at the moment, bullish on it. $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$ And the leading stock. $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ $Chevron (CVX.US)$
...
It has fallen below the previous low, and filling the earlier gap of the jump is only a step away, basically powerless to turn back. Looking down to around 220.
I hold a 3% position at a cost of 250, considering it as a bottom position, and do not intend to sell.
I do not plan to short, but rather wait to add positions around 220 when it falls. However, I am unlikely to heavily increase my position unless there is a very clear reversal pattern signaling the end of the downtrend.
Tesla is my favorite stock to play, without a doubt. Hoping for another opportunity this year to play in the third wave.
The current pullback in the US stock market may continue until September. I am not in a hurry to bottom fish.
This chart shows the stocks that would have the biggest impact on US stocks if China falls into a recession, for reference only. I hold the four stocks below in the chart.
$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ ， $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ and $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ I only have less than 5% position in these three stocks, but the decline is quite brutal...I also sold calls, collected the premiums, but it can't make up for the double-digit decline.
Energy is my top position at the moment, bullish on it. $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$ And the leading stock. $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ $Chevron (CVX.US)$
...
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王婧彤0722
commented on
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ And $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Leading the market crash, US stocks continue to decline. Among the most significant drops are the previously skyrocketing AI concept stocks, such as [insert name]. $Datadog (DDOG.US)$ ， $Upstart (UPST.US)$ and others.
Even true AI stocks have also dropped significantly, such as [insert name]. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ ， $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ And $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ Currently, there are only a few technology giants. $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ And $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Relatively strong. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Also decent.
Because I hold $Unity Software (U.US)$ ， $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ And $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ and several other core positions that I haven't liquidated include $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ ， $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ Such as, although each position is not large, but the total is a lot, can't stand the continuous decline, it's also quite painful.
Fortunately $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ ， ...
Even true AI stocks have also dropped significantly, such as [insert name]. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ ， $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ And $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ Currently, there are only a few technology giants. $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ And $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Relatively strong. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Also decent.
Because I hold $Unity Software (U.US)$ ， $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ And $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$ and several other core positions that I haven't liquidated include $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ ， $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ Such as, although each position is not large, but the total is a lot, can't stand the continuous decline, it's also quite painful.
Fortunately $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ ， ...
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王婧彤0722
liked
Hi, mooers.
A few days ago, I came across an article that impressed me most. It was titled Why July Brings the Bulls posted by Carson Group. Now I'd like to quote some details from that article here and discuss that with you. And here is the source.
"For starters, stocks have gained 9 of the past 10 years in July, with no month sporting a better average return over the past decade than the 3.3% July gain for the S&P 500. Why is this you ask? The one thing I keep thin...
A few days ago, I came across an article that impressed me most. It was titled Why July Brings the Bulls posted by Carson Group. Now I'd like to quote some details from that article here and discuss that with you. And here is the source.
"For starters, stocks have gained 9 of the past 10 years in July, with no month sporting a better average return over the past decade than the 3.3% July gain for the S&P 500. Why is this you ask? The one thing I keep thin...
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王婧彤0722
commented on
$Altria (MO.US)$There has been almost no change in revenue in the past 5 years, operating profit increased slightly, and net profit declined sharply due to fluctuations. There was a loss in 2019.
2023Q1 revenue fell 2.9%, operating profit fell 4.4%, and net profit fell 8.8%.
The income statement shows that interest expenses account for about 10% of operating profit, but equity income fluctuates greatly, and the scale of write-off is also huge. At one point in 2019, it reached 8.8 billion, causing annual losses.
The current price-earnings ratio valuation of 14.6 times is not low, and it is not very attractive.
2023Q1 revenue fell 2.9%, operating profit fell 4.4%, and net profit fell 8.8%.
The income statement shows that interest expenses account for about 10% of operating profit, but equity income fluctuates greatly, and the scale of write-off is also huge. At one point in 2019, it reached 8.8 billion, causing annual losses.
The current price-earnings ratio valuation of 14.6 times is not low, and it is not very attractive.
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王婧彤0722
commented on
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Can it go up to 350 after the financial report? Can you advise, experts?
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王婧彤0722
commented on
$Unity Software (U.US)$
Luckily didn't sell.![]()
But why is the Nasdaq so strong, I just said yesterday it should be wise.![]()
Pattern, are we going to have another round so soon?![]()
Can't face slap like this, I was still hoping for a little more decline before bottom fishing, chasing qqq at this high now is really unwise.
$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ Only reduced a little position.![]()
If qqq breaks yesterday's high point, only stop loss sqqq.
Luckily didn't sell.
But why is the Nasdaq so strong, I just said yesterday it should be wise.
$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ Only reduced a little position.
If qqq breaks yesterday's high point, only stop loss sqqq.
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王婧彤0722
commented on
$Unity Software (U.US)$ Now the price has come to a position of interest to me, I am adding at 36.6, continuing to observe this week if the price reaches 34~35 I will add code again, but if the price falls below 33 I will turn straight away from the market, make a good trading plan, elegant trade.
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王婧彤0722 : In the current market I feel in the US, the Fed will raise interest rates at least one more time. Why? I have missed several interest rate hikes in a row, and I have clearly felt the rise in prices
! I hope the Fed will not only refer to official data, but also substantially see the current economic situation in the market, so if the unemployment rate remains constant, it will also raise interest rates once or twice in order to mitigate price increases; in my humble opinion, it probably won't even consider cutting interest rates until June next year - it just depends on the circumstances, whether interest rates will be raised or not, and not cut interest rates.
王婧彤0722 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : So your guess is that the Fed won't just push the market in the direction of collapse? Will interest rates be cut as a last resort to avoid the risk of collapse as much as possible? Can I understand it that way?
王婧彤0722 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : As soon as you say this, my pattern instantly opens up, and I'm thrilled.