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Recently, the semiconductor industry is experiencing both prosperity and decline. Semiconductor companies that do not focus on AI feel like they are on the verge of bankruptcy, while those involved in AI have sky-high valuations.
For me, companies like [company name] that rely on hype for their rise in stock price, I am not inclined to give them a valuation because they simply don't align with the fundamentals. It's like a game of pass the parcel, anyone could end up being the last one holding the bag. If you want to avoid buying at high prices, you'll have to search through the bargain bin. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ And $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ This translation is too difficult. I apologize for the inconvenience.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ My current stop-loss is set at 83.7, which is a soft stop-loss. Even if it falls below during the trading day, I will wait until near the close. If it doesn't bounce back, then I will stop-loss, retaining some bottom positions. My cost is around 84.5, so the risk is not significant.
My other heavily-weighted stock, $ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$ Stop loss temporarily set at 8.40-8.45, it's a hard stop loss. No selling if it doesn't fall, but if it falls below, then I'll cut it all, because there are no dividends and no consideration for long-term holding.
Once the plan is established, it must be strictly followed. Mistakes may happen, but losses must be avoided.
Finally, a few words off topic:
About taiwan semiconductor, the company's prospects, technology, moat, and profitability are all very good, but the management does have very significant problems, leading to a very passive current situation. In short, there is no backbone, no integrity.
For example, if you want to use technological advantages to gain strong pricing power, you have to allow customers to bid for limited production capacity...
For me, companies like [company name] that rely on hype for their rise in stock price, I am not inclined to give them a valuation because they simply don't align with the fundamentals. It's like a game of pass the parcel, anyone could end up being the last one holding the bag. If you want to avoid buying at high prices, you'll have to search through the bargain bin. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ And $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ This translation is too difficult. I apologize for the inconvenience.
$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ My current stop-loss is set at 83.7, which is a soft stop-loss. Even if it falls below during the trading day, I will wait until near the close. If it doesn't bounce back, then I will stop-loss, retaining some bottom positions. My cost is around 84.5, so the risk is not significant.
My other heavily-weighted stock, $ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$ Stop loss temporarily set at 8.40-8.45, it's a hard stop loss. No selling if it doesn't fall, but if it falls below, then I'll cut it all, because there are no dividends and no consideration for long-term holding.
Once the plan is established, it must be strictly followed. Mistakes may happen, but losses must be avoided.
Finally, a few words off topic:
About taiwan semiconductor, the company's prospects, technology, moat, and profitability are all very good, but the management does have very significant problems, leading to a very passive current situation. In short, there is no backbone, no integrity.
For example, if you want to use technological advantages to gain strong pricing power, you have to allow customers to bid for limited production capacity...
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1. Seeing is believing
Staying in the market, the most important thing is to understand the market, which is driven by various factors including fundamentals, market games, liquidity, expectations, etc. When you only focus on one-sided information and think you are right, you will make mistakes.
Respecting the market and respecting trends is always the most important thing. Because most of the time our views and predictions are wrong, not because we are not smart enough, even the smartest people in the world cannot predict the future.
Fortunately, although predicting is difficult, validating is simple. Any prediction must be validated by the market for its correctness, and any strategy must be determined for its effectiveness in the market. This is not only true in investment markets, but also in life, work, and entrepreneurship.
Seeing is believing also includes judging trends based on what you see, without falling into the psychological anchoring effect.
2. Unity of Knowledge and Action
Knowledge is your cognition, action is the realization of cognition.
Not having a plan is the first issue, not having a trading plan is the second issue. Not having a trading plan has two meanings, one is not trading according to a plan, the other is trading without a plan, both will result in your trades being outside the plan.
Many people understand the importance of planning, but still do not do it. This is still an issue of awareness, fundamentally believing that planning is not important.
Planning and trading are the most important things, so go ahead and make your trading plan now.
3. Long and short thinking coexisting
Do not stubbornly go long or short, you can trade long only, but your mindset must include both bullish and bearish thinking, simultaneously considering going long and going...
Staying in the market, the most important thing is to understand the market, which is driven by various factors including fundamentals, market games, liquidity, expectations, etc. When you only focus on one-sided information and think you are right, you will make mistakes.
Respecting the market and respecting trends is always the most important thing. Because most of the time our views and predictions are wrong, not because we are not smart enough, even the smartest people in the world cannot predict the future.
Fortunately, although predicting is difficult, validating is simple. Any prediction must be validated by the market for its correctness, and any strategy must be determined for its effectiveness in the market. This is not only true in investment markets, but also in life, work, and entrepreneurship.
Seeing is believing also includes judging trends based on what you see, without falling into the psychological anchoring effect.
2. Unity of Knowledge and Action
Knowledge is your cognition, action is the realization of cognition.
Not having a plan is the first issue, not having a trading plan is the second issue. Not having a trading plan has two meanings, one is not trading according to a plan, the other is trading without a plan, both will result in your trades being outside the plan.
Many people understand the importance of planning, but still do not do it. This is still an issue of awareness, fundamentally believing that planning is not important.
Planning and trading are the most important things, so go ahead and make your trading plan now.
3. Long and short thinking coexisting
Do not stubbornly go long or short, you can trade long only, but your mindset must include both bullish and bearish thinking, simultaneously considering going long and going...
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In the stock market, profit is our perception. Stock trading is both simple and difficult, difficult in continuous learning and integrating knowledge with action. The stock market is a "zero-sum game," one person's success in stock trading is built on the failures and pains of many stock friends. The so-called "one's success is built upon the failure of tens of thousands," so when we succeed, we must remember to do something meaningful to society, Roses!
The stock market journey is long, let's forge ahead together in the future. If you like it, remember to like it, bookmark it, and follow it.![]()
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$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
$FTSE Straits All-Share Index (.FSTAS.SG)$
$FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$
The stock market journey is long, let's forge ahead together in the future. If you like it, remember to like it, bookmark it, and follow it.
$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$
$FTSE Straits All-Share Index (.FSTAS.SG)$
$FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$
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1: One ticket has been rising for two consecutive days, and the position must be reduced appropriately on the third day.
2: If your ticket continues to increase by more than 7 points on the same day, you can earn a few more points if you wait for a chance to increase and sell it again.
3: A ticket that only rises and then falls within 30 minutes of opening. It does not fall below the opening price. It can enter in the morning, and is very likely to rise in the afternoon. If it falls first and then rises,
The rebound did not break through the opening price, and we will definitely not buy it.
4: The high side plate rises again, seize the opportunity and throw quickly. The low side plate is a new low, seize the opportunity to suck low.
5: Trend is king. I'd rather die on the road to chase heights than die on the path to bottom.
6: If your ticket does not rise or fall for 3 days after buying it, and it reaches 5%, the erosion will stop immediately.
7: When you can't understand the trend, hold online shares for 5 days in the short term and online shares on the 20th in the medium term.
8: When a stock suddenly doubles the volume of the previous day, and the increase is more than 5%, you can follow up at the end of the session and sell higher the next day.
9: Don't copy the bottom, just follow the hot spots, dare to fill up the stud, quickly stop the profit and stop the erosion, and cut the mess quickly.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
...
2: If your ticket continues to increase by more than 7 points on the same day, you can earn a few more points if you wait for a chance to increase and sell it again.
3: A ticket that only rises and then falls within 30 minutes of opening. It does not fall below the opening price. It can enter in the morning, and is very likely to rise in the afternoon. If it falls first and then rises,
The rebound did not break through the opening price, and we will definitely not buy it.
4: The high side plate rises again, seize the opportunity and throw quickly. The low side plate is a new low, seize the opportunity to suck low.
5: Trend is king. I'd rather die on the road to chase heights than die on the path to bottom.
6: If your ticket does not rise or fall for 3 days after buying it, and it reaches 5%, the erosion will stop immediately.
7: When you can't understand the trend, hold online shares for 5 days in the short term and online shares on the 20th in the medium term.
8: When a stock suddenly doubles the volume of the previous day, and the increase is more than 5%, you can follow up at the end of the session and sell higher the next day.
9: Don't copy the bottom, just follow the hot spots, dare to fill up the stud, quickly stop the profit and stop the erosion, and cut the mess quickly.
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
...
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$ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ For the price reduction of tesla itself, it depends on the data to determine if it is bullish. But for the charging station industry, all I can think of is bullish. The more electric cars there are, the greater the demand, and the larger the market share. Although there is also competition within the industry, everyone benefits when the market grows. However, the stock price of chpt has fallen drastically, and the market logic is not clear. But if the daily line reaches a low of 9, which is almost the previous low position in two days, and there is a sign of stabilization, I believe it is an opportunity. Regardless of the economic situation, as long as the number of electric cars continues to rise, the demand for charging stations will remain strong.
Of course, in the United States, the majority of electric cars are used for commuting and grocery shopping, and they are charged at home every night, so there is usually no need to go to charging stations. But as long as the number of electric cars increases, there will be more demand. In addition, with the bullish policies of the old Biden, I don't think there will be any major problems in this industry.
Let's focus on the technical aspect, hoping for a double bottom, stabilization, and then a rebound.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ For the price reduction of tesla itself, it depends on the data to determine if it is bullish. But for the charging station industry, all I can think of is bullish. The more electric cars there are, the greater the demand, and the larger the market share. Although there is also competition within the industry, everyone benefits when the market grows. However, the stock price of chpt has fallen drastically, and the market logic is not clear. But if the daily line reaches a low of 9, which is almost the previous low position in two days, and there is a sign of stabilization, I believe it is an opportunity. Regardless of the economic situation, as long as the number of electric cars continues to rise, the demand for charging stations will remain strong.
Of course, in the United States, the majority of electric cars are used for commuting and grocery shopping, and they are charged at home every night, so there is usually no need to go to charging stations. But as long as the number of electric cars increases, there will be more demand. In addition, with the bullish policies of the old Biden, I don't think there will be any major problems in this industry.
Let's focus on the technical aspect, hoping for a double bottom, stabilization, and then a rebound.
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$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Stock equity, I mean fun.
The rise and fall is large, the speed is fast, and the turnover rate is high. Agencies and retail investors are playing. Support levels and pressure levels are easy to find, so it's easy to judge the price and direction. Even if the judgment is wrong, just stop losing quickly.
Leaving aside making money, from an entertainment perspective alone, it's hard to find a stock as fun as Tesla. If you trade stocks only to make money, you can outperform the vast majority of people by investing in SPY or QQQ every week without having to fiddle around so much.
Tesla is also really interesting. Although there have been many downsides recently, such as secret photography, recall, and insiders binge selling of stocks, stock prices have not plummeted. When it was replaced by another company, I'm afraid the stock price would have fallen into a dog for a long time. Mainly the last round of the V-shaped reversal. Many people missed it, and now they are very afraid to miss it again. Furthermore, the cessation of interest rate hikes has been interpreted as favorable. In my opinion, it only favors the bond market; I have reservations about the stock market.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ If there is a pullback, it is considered that it has been blocked and retracted. As soon as the support level below is reached, I will continue to increase my position.
Let's also talk about the current economic environment. I don't dare to talk nonsense all over the country, yet I am surrounded by a double whammy of ice and fire.
A nearby supermarket chain is finally no longer hiring. It's not that the business is bad, but that they have recruited a group of grandparents to work as cashiers. The cashier window is finally working properly, but half of the cashiers are elderly. When I check out...
Stock equity, I mean fun.
The rise and fall is large, the speed is fast, and the turnover rate is high. Agencies and retail investors are playing. Support levels and pressure levels are easy to find, so it's easy to judge the price and direction. Even if the judgment is wrong, just stop losing quickly.
Leaving aside making money, from an entertainment perspective alone, it's hard to find a stock as fun as Tesla. If you trade stocks only to make money, you can outperform the vast majority of people by investing in SPY or QQQ every week without having to fiddle around so much.
Tesla is also really interesting. Although there have been many downsides recently, such as secret photography, recall, and insiders binge selling of stocks, stock prices have not plummeted. When it was replaced by another company, I'm afraid the stock price would have fallen into a dog for a long time. Mainly the last round of the V-shaped reversal. Many people missed it, and now they are very afraid to miss it again. Furthermore, the cessation of interest rate hikes has been interpreted as favorable. In my opinion, it only favors the bond market; I have reservations about the stock market.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ If there is a pullback, it is considered that it has been blocked and retracted. As soon as the support level below is reached, I will continue to increase my position.
Let's also talk about the current economic environment. I don't dare to talk nonsense all over the country, yet I am surrounded by a double whammy of ice and fire.
A nearby supermarket chain is finally no longer hiring. It's not that the business is bad, but that they have recruited a group of grandparents to work as cashiers. The cashier window is finally working properly, but half of the cashiers are elderly. When I check out...
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$CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$
$Cloudflare (NET.US)$
$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$
Something went wrong yesterday; technology stocks are about to fall. However, since the upward trend has not been disrupted, it has not been sold. I plan to take another look and confirm my judgment.
As a result, today's market just opened and fell apart![]()
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Let's see if they'll take a break in the afternoon and give them a chance to escape.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Continued decline is to be expected. Wait and drop one more time. The more you fall, the greater the chance.
$C3.ai (AI.US)$ About a month ago, I said this was a junk stock, and that the speculation bubble would break sooner or later. It always comes when it's supposed to come.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Fortunately, my pension was full of bonds, and I didn't run out of money. But bonds also have a potential risk: stagflation.
The intellectual disability of the 70s and 80s taught us that the employment slump did not necessarily reduce inflation. As long as inflation does not fall, no matter how bad the economy is, we must continue to raise interest rates. Stagflation often occurs before restructuring after an economy collapses. However, this is more of a political game, and we have no recourse; we can only pay attention to risk control.
I hope Lao Bideng doesn't take himself out of his way. Due to Trump's racial discrimination against Chinese people during COVID-19, a typical dog bit Lu Dongbin (he defeated Hillary back then, inseparable from the support of Chinese Americans in swing states...
$Cloudflare (NET.US)$
$Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$
Something went wrong yesterday; technology stocks are about to fall. However, since the upward trend has not been disrupted, it has not been sold. I plan to take another look and confirm my judgment.
As a result, today's market just opened and fell apart
Let's see if they'll take a break in the afternoon and give them a chance to escape.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Continued decline is to be expected. Wait and drop one more time. The more you fall, the greater the chance.
$C3.ai (AI.US)$ About a month ago, I said this was a junk stock, and that the speculation bubble would break sooner or later. It always comes when it's supposed to come.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Fortunately, my pension was full of bonds, and I didn't run out of money. But bonds also have a potential risk: stagflation.
The intellectual disability of the 70s and 80s taught us that the employment slump did not necessarily reduce inflation. As long as inflation does not fall, no matter how bad the economy is, we must continue to raise interest rates. Stagflation often occurs before restructuring after an economy collapses. However, this is more of a political game, and we have no recourse; we can only pay attention to risk control.
I hope Lao Bideng doesn't take himself out of his way. Due to Trump's racial discrimination against Chinese people during COVID-19, a typical dog bit Lu Dongbin (he defeated Hillary back then, inseparable from the support of Chinese Americans in swing states...
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$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
Last Friday, Tesla surged above 200. I think the benefits have been exhausted, and my 0.5% position has been cut in half, leaving only about 3/1000. There was a pullback to 200 yesterday. I think the bulls can resist filling positions to a total of 1%. I later discovered that I was thinking a lot![]()
I ran for 190 without resistance.
Today I opened a little bit higher. I originally wanted to stop and sell a little, but when I thought later, the total position was 1%, so what am I still tinkering with. Moreover, Tesla will definitely return to over 200 in the future. Today, I plan to increase my position slightly at 190. I think it will be 1.5%, but I will still treat it as a band.
This position is actually just for fun. I still think Tesla will return to at least 150, and possibly 125, or even 100. Falling below 100 may seem impossible; in fact, everything is possible. As long as local tycoons in the Middle East and Mao Xiong continue to cut crude oil production, I'm afraid old Biden and old Bao Ge won't sleep well at night. Inevitably, it's reminiscent of the oil crisis in the 1980s.![]()
However, Tesla is going to reach a reasonable price, that is, around 150, so I plan to buy some seriously. If it falls again, continue to increase positions. But even if I go back to 100, I wouldn't be too aggressive; I think adding 20% would be about the same. If it can actually continue to fall to 80 or even lower, then this is a really big chance.
The nature of Tesla is determined by its stock price. The 200 yuan Tesla is a technology stock, which is bullish to 5,000. Tesla at 100 yuan is an auto stock, bearish...
Last Friday, Tesla surged above 200. I think the benefits have been exhausted, and my 0.5% position has been cut in half, leaving only about 3/1000. There was a pullback to 200 yesterday. I think the bulls can resist filling positions to a total of 1%. I later discovered that I was thinking a lot
Today I opened a little bit higher. I originally wanted to stop and sell a little, but when I thought later, the total position was 1%, so what am I still tinkering with. Moreover, Tesla will definitely return to over 200 in the future. Today, I plan to increase my position slightly at 190. I think it will be 1.5%, but I will still treat it as a band.
This position is actually just for fun. I still think Tesla will return to at least 150, and possibly 125, or even 100. Falling below 100 may seem impossible; in fact, everything is possible. As long as local tycoons in the Middle East and Mao Xiong continue to cut crude oil production, I'm afraid old Biden and old Bao Ge won't sleep well at night. Inevitably, it's reminiscent of the oil crisis in the 1980s.
The nature of Tesla is determined by its stock price. The 200 yuan Tesla is a technology stock, which is bullish to 5,000. Tesla at 100 yuan is an auto stock, bearish...
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The USA is really in big trouble this time.
Looking through history, the USA actually only has two methods to solve a crisis: algo easing and finding someone to take the blame. Usually both are used together, swiftly getting out of the crisis, leaving a mess for others.
Take the recent events for example, in 2020, the USA flooded the market, the economy recovered, and global inflation took the blame. In 2008, the USA started flooding the market, China also flooded the market to save it, the USA got out of the crisis, while China's real estate market faced serious bubble risk, which still exists today.
This time, the USA cannot flood the market, they can only find someone to take the blame before crashing completely.
Russia is full of bones and thorns, definitely can't support the back. China is a panda, fat but very fierce, and now the United States can't handle it. That leaves Europe, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The United States has been raising interest rates for so long, and with the Russia-Ukraine war, although the European Union is scarred and has lost a lot, it hasn't fallen. Japan can still hold on, although it's also struggling. The former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom made a shameful move, angering the Queen and causing a debt market crash, but the new Prime Minister, that person, seems to be capable and quickly stabilized the situation.
Currently, the real estate market in South Korea is on the verge of collapse. However, South Korea is too small, no matter how fat the caterpillar is, it can't support the elephant's back.![]()
The United States is in a difficult position now. If they don't find someone to support them, they will be in trouble.
In addition to the previous article mentioned $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ , $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$
Looking through history, the USA actually only has two methods to solve a crisis: algo easing and finding someone to take the blame. Usually both are used together, swiftly getting out of the crisis, leaving a mess for others.
Take the recent events for example, in 2020, the USA flooded the market, the economy recovered, and global inflation took the blame. In 2008, the USA started flooding the market, China also flooded the market to save it, the USA got out of the crisis, while China's real estate market faced serious bubble risk, which still exists today.
This time, the USA cannot flood the market, they can only find someone to take the blame before crashing completely.
Russia is full of bones and thorns, definitely can't support the back. China is a panda, fat but very fierce, and now the United States can't handle it. That leaves Europe, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The United States has been raising interest rates for so long, and with the Russia-Ukraine war, although the European Union is scarred and has lost a lot, it hasn't fallen. Japan can still hold on, although it's also struggling. The former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom made a shameful move, angering the Queen and causing a debt market crash, but the new Prime Minister, that person, seems to be capable and quickly stabilized the situation.
Currently, the real estate market in South Korea is on the verge of collapse. However, South Korea is too small, no matter how fat the caterpillar is, it can't support the elephant's back.
The United States is in a difficult position now. If they don't find someone to support them, they will be in trouble.
In addition to the previous article mentioned $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ , $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$
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