Captain Rat
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Raphael Bostic is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, he spoke late on Friday. During Asia time I noted here how late he was speaking and expressed a hope he wouldn't be saying too much of importance .... well, he sure did!
He is now expecting one 25bp cut in 2024, down from the two he was expecting, and he expects that single cut later in the year. He says he is "definitely less confident" than he was in December that inflation will continue to fall tow...
He is now expecting one 25bp cut in 2024, down from the two he was expecting, and he expects that single cut later in the year. He says he is "definitely less confident" than he was in December that inflation will continue to fall tow...
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Captain Rat
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$Zscaler (ZS.US)$
The cybersecurity sector is taking a break from its massive rally. ZS's share price has fallen over 20% from its 52-week highs. Currently, the price sits at a long-term support. Will we see a rebound or a breakdown?
Long-Term Support
Rebound or Breakdown?
What do you think? Will we see a rebound off of support? Or will we see a breakdown below support?
$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$ $Cloudflare (NET.US)$ $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ $Fortinet (FTNT.US)$ $SentinelOne (S.US)$
...
The cybersecurity sector is taking a break from its massive rally. ZS's share price has fallen over 20% from its 52-week highs. Currently, the price sits at a long-term support. Will we see a rebound or a breakdown?
Long-Term Support
Rebound or Breakdown?
What do you think? Will we see a rebound off of support? Or will we see a breakdown below support?
$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$ $Cloudflare (NET.US)$ $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ $Fortinet (FTNT.US)$ $SentinelOne (S.US)$
...
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Captain Rat
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CPI inflation may begin to spike again:
The NFIB survey asks 10,000 firms if they plan to increase selling prices over the next 3 months.
Over the last 3 months, the number of firms responding "yes" has jumped from 20% to nearly 40%.
As shown in the chart below, this survey is highly correlated with CPI inflation.
With the recent divergence between inflation and this survey, the gap needs to close.
The Fed won't like this.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
The NFIB survey asks 10,000 firms if they plan to increase selling prices over the next 3 months.
Over the last 3 months, the number of firms responding "yes" has jumped from 20% to nearly 40%.
As shown in the chart below, this survey is highly correlated with CPI inflation.
With the recent divergence between inflation and this survey, the gap needs to close.
The Fed won't like this.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
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Captain Rat
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$Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ.US)$
Potential Rebound
It looks like we are seeing a breakout on the very short timeframes. The price of VNQ has climbed above the resistance of a price channel that has held down the price action for several weeks.
Are we about to see a rebound? Or will we see more consolidation before a rebound? If the price falls back down into the price channel and makes new lows, then the rebound prospects will look a lot slimme...
Potential Rebound
It looks like we are seeing a breakout on the very short timeframes. The price of VNQ has climbed above the resistance of a price channel that has held down the price action for several weeks.
Are we about to see a rebound? Or will we see more consolidation before a rebound? If the price falls back down into the price channel and makes new lows, then the rebound prospects will look a lot slimme...
+1
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Captain Rat
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In a solid bull market, every dip will see buyers stepping in. Just like back in 2022’s bear market, every bounce saw sellers stepped in.
Today and tomorrow will be a good test for the current bull market. Let’s see by end of Friday, will SPX reclaim its 5,000 market.
Gentle reminder, Friday is Opex day. Expect higher level of volatility.
A retrace and rebound is bullish.
$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$ $Disney (DIS.US)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $DraftKings (DKNG.US)$ $Sea (SE.US)$ $Sohu.com (SOHU.US)$ $AT&T (T.US)$ $Unity Software (U.US)$ $Deutsche Bank (DB.US)$
Today and tomorrow will be a good test for the current bull market. Let’s see by end of Friday, will SPX reclaim its 5,000 market.
Gentle reminder, Friday is Opex day. Expect higher level of volatility.
A retrace and rebound is bullish.
$ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$ $Disney (DIS.US)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$ $DraftKings (DKNG.US)$ $Sea (SE.US)$ $Sohu.com (SOHU.US)$ $AT&T (T.US)$ $Unity Software (U.US)$ $Deutsche Bank (DB.US)$
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Captain Rat
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In January, the SEC approved the trading of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on the 11th. This approval allows investors to diversify their portfolios with crypto exposure without worrying about the complicated issues of custody. Microsoft had overtaken Apple as the most valuable company for the first time since 2021, which may be largely due to its investment in generative AI, including a stake in ChatGPT. The EV sector also faces fierce competition;...
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Captain Rat
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$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$it needs to stay above 423.53 / 425.16 and break out of 429.85 for a continuation to 433.97 / 434.84 and maybe 436.97 / 438.58. Below that level we could see this come to 416
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Captain Rat
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All magnificent 7 closed red yesterday. The average pullback for them is more than 2%. This is quite a rare scene.
Today, we have more big tech reporting their earnings - Apple, Amazon and Meta. If any of them disappoints, this pullback could continue.
But prior to that, the market will continue to digest what Powell has shared yesterday during regular trading hours.
Honestly, to me, a “no rate cut” in March was expected. So let’s see if the market will absorb this news positive...
Today, we have more big tech reporting their earnings - Apple, Amazon and Meta. If any of them disappoints, this pullback could continue.
But prior to that, the market will continue to digest what Powell has shared yesterday during regular trading hours.
Honestly, to me, a “no rate cut” in March was expected. So let’s see if the market will absorb this news positive...
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Captain Rat
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Volatility is set to return with a huge week ahead.
Anything in the recent news or events shaping your expectations for the stock market next week?
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
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