The Magnificent 7 stocks have added $2.1 TRILLION of market cap since August and are now worth $16.2 trillion.
The group is trading ~$800 billion below its all-time high posted July 10th.
Year-to-date, the Magnificent 7 stocks added a whopping $4.4 trillion in market value.
These 7 stocks alone current account for ~35% of the S&P 500, near the most on record.
Meanwhile, Nvidia stock, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , hit a new all-time high and is just ~$100 billion away from surpassing Apple, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ , as the ...
The group is trading ~$800 billion below its all-time high posted July 10th.
Year-to-date, the Magnificent 7 stocks added a whopping $4.4 trillion in market value.
These 7 stocks alone current account for ~35% of the S&P 500, near the most on record.
Meanwhile, Nvidia stock, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , hit a new all-time high and is just ~$100 billion away from surpassing Apple, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ , as the ...
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Among the tech giants, I think $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ might be most at risk of seeing pushback over its AI capex. Unlike $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ , $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ , they don't have an IaaS/PaaS business to help monetize their AI spend, and they're far from the only tech firm with an interest in seeing Llama succeed.
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Same story on CPI as previous month: Total is “ok” at +2.4% because energy is collapsing, but core is still +3.3% and Services remain HOT & STICKY at +4.7%. Transport +8.5% 🥵.
Sticky services is how inflation has always worked. It’s settled science.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
Sticky services is how inflation has always worked. It’s settled science.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
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Attention, everyone. This is a crucial data point and development worth noting.![]()
The ETF market has played a vital role in the success of the US equity markets, holding approximately 13% of US equity assets—the largest share among mature markets. In particular, passive ETFs significantly influence the demand for shares of the largest listed companies, known as the Mag 7.
Currently, ETFs in China, valued at RMB 3 trillion ($428 billion), represent only 3% to 4% of the country's total equity ass...
The ETF market has played a vital role in the success of the US equity markets, holding approximately 13% of US equity assets—the largest share among mature markets. In particular, passive ETFs significantly influence the demand for shares of the largest listed companies, known as the Mag 7.
Currently, ETFs in China, valued at RMB 3 trillion ($428 billion), represent only 3% to 4% of the country's total equity ass...
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The mortgage demand index reached 142 this month, recording the worst September since 1994.
Since 2020, mortgage applications declined 55% and sit 44% below pre-pandemic levels.
This is despite mortgage rates falling by 1.1 percentage points since May, to 6.1%, the lowest level since September 2022.
Meanwhile, pending home sales have declined for a third consecutive year and hit another record low in August.
Lower rates are not helping in housing.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
Since 2020, mortgage applications declined 55% and sit 44% below pre-pandemic levels.
This is despite mortgage rates falling by 1.1 percentage points since May, to 6.1%, the lowest level since September 2022.
Meanwhile, pending home sales have declined for a third consecutive year and hit another record low in August.
Lower rates are not helping in housing.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
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A record 87% of Americans now believe it is a bad time to buy a home, more than DOUBLE the 2008 peak.
At the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis, just 40% of Americans said it was a bad time to buy a home, according to Reventure.
In fact, even when mortgage rates hit a whopping 18% in the 1980s, sentiment was not as bad as it is now.
In the 1980s, this metric peaked at 79%, 8 percentage points BELOW current levels.
This is by far the most pessimistic housing market sentiment in history.
How is thi...
At the peak of the 2008 Financial Crisis, just 40% of Americans said it was a bad time to buy a home, according to Reventure.
In fact, even when mortgage rates hit a whopping 18% in the 1980s, sentiment was not as bad as it is now.
In the 1980s, this metric peaked at 79%, 8 percentage points BELOW current levels.
This is by far the most pessimistic housing market sentiment in history.
How is thi...
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$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S STATEMENT (9/18/24):
1. Fed believes that the economy is "strong overall"
2. Fed has "growing confidence" that strength in labor market can be maintained
3. Consumer spending has "remained resilient"
4. Inflation has eased but "remains above 2% target"
5. Labor market is now less tight than before pandemic
6. Fed is moving to a "neutral stance" but "not on any preset cour...
SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S STATEMENT (9/18/24):
1. Fed believes that the economy is "strong overall"
2. Fed has "growing confidence" that strength in labor market can be maintained
3. Consumer spending has "remained resilient"
4. Inflation has eased but "remains above 2% target"
5. Labor market is now less tight than before pandemic
6. Fed is moving to a "neutral stance" but "not on any preset cour...
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452 large companies have now declared bankruptcy year-to-date, the 2nd highest number in 14 years.
This is only below the 466 bankruptcies recorded in 2020 when economic activity was halted by lockdowns.
In August alone, 63 firms have gone bankrupt, up from 49 in July, marking the 4th worst month in 4 years.
By sector, the greatest number of bankruptcies have occurred in the consumer discretionary sector, at 69, followed by 53 in industrials and 45 in healthcare.
For the first time since the...
This is only below the 466 bankruptcies recorded in 2020 when economic activity was halted by lockdowns.
In August alone, 63 firms have gone bankrupt, up from 49 in July, marking the 4th worst month in 4 years.
By sector, the greatest number of bankruptcies have occurred in the consumer discretionary sector, at 69, followed by 53 in industrials and 45 in healthcare.
For the first time since the...
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Further evidence higher unemployment is coming:
US consumers' perceptions of the labor market have weakened to the worst level since 2021.
The difference between the share of Americans saying that jobs are plentiful minus those saying they are hard to get declined is down to 16.4%.
In previous business cycles, has been a leading indicator for unemployment.
It now suggests that the unemployment rate may increase toward 5.5% in coming months.
The labor market is trending toward a recession.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
US consumers' perceptions of the labor market have weakened to the worst level since 2021.
The difference between the share of Americans saying that jobs are plentiful minus those saying they are hard to get declined is down to 16.4%.
In previous business cycles, has been a leading indicator for unemployment.
It now suggests that the unemployment rate may increase toward 5.5% in coming months.
The labor market is trending toward a recession.
$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$
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Retail investors are all in.
Retail investors' inflows into US stocks jumped over the last 2 weeks to their highest levels in at least 12 months.
Aggregate net retail 5-day moving average purchases have more than DOUBLED in a month and hit~$1.7 billion last week.
This comes after the S&P 500 fell ~7%, providing what proved to be a buying opportunity.
Following the inflows, the S&P 500 surged over 8% from its low and is now 1.5% away from a new all time high.
The risk appetite for stocks i...
Retail investors' inflows into US stocks jumped over the last 2 weeks to their highest levels in at least 12 months.
Aggregate net retail 5-day moving average purchases have more than DOUBLED in a month and hit~$1.7 billion last week.
This comes after the S&P 500 fell ~7%, providing what proved to be a buying opportunity.
Following the inflows, the S&P 500 surged over 8% from its low and is now 1.5% away from a new all time high.
The risk appetite for stocks i...
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