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$YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SG)$ To quantitatively assess the probability of the USTR proposal being implemented, Bayesian analysis can be used in conjunction with Historical Data, political environment, and Industry impact for an Algo estimate.
1. Analysis of key influencing factors.
(1) Historical Approval Rate (𝑃(Pass Policy | Submit Proposal))
• Based on Historical Data, trade sanction proposals involving China usually have a low overall implementation rate, but some measures may be enforced:
o 2018 Trump Tariffs (Section 301): Some high tariff policies were successfully implemented.
o 2023 Electric Vehicles Subsidy Investigation: The USA's subsidies for Chinese electric vehicles are still under discussion and have not yet formed a comprehensive ban.
In 2024, the USA's Marine Transportation review of China is currently in the investigation phase, and sanctions have not been implemented immediately.
• Assumed base probability: 30% (that is, there is a 30% chance that past similar sanction policies have been partially implemented).
(2) Political & Economic Environment (𝑃(policy approval | political pressure))
• In the 2024 USA election year, the Democratic government tends to take a hardline approach towards China to secure votes.
• The escalation of the trade war may lead to inverse costs:
o It affects USA importers and shipping companies, which may face strong opposition from the Industry.
o Inflation risk: Additional port fees may lead to a decline in the competitiveness of USA product exports, and Congress may adjust policies.
• Adjustment probability: 25% (i.e., the political impact may lower the probability of policy implementation).
(3) Industry Reaction (𝑃(Policy Approval|Industry Impact))
• Global shipping...
1. Analysis of key influencing factors.
(1) Historical Approval Rate (𝑃(Pass Policy | Submit Proposal))
• Based on Historical Data, trade sanction proposals involving China usually have a low overall implementation rate, but some measures may be enforced:
o 2018 Trump Tariffs (Section 301): Some high tariff policies were successfully implemented.
o 2023 Electric Vehicles Subsidy Investigation: The USA's subsidies for Chinese electric vehicles are still under discussion and have not yet formed a comprehensive ban.
In 2024, the USA's Marine Transportation review of China is currently in the investigation phase, and sanctions have not been implemented immediately.
• Assumed base probability: 30% (that is, there is a 30% chance that past similar sanction policies have been partially implemented).
(2) Political & Economic Environment (𝑃(policy approval | political pressure))
• In the 2024 USA election year, the Democratic government tends to take a hardline approach towards China to secure votes.
• The escalation of the trade war may lead to inverse costs:
o It affects USA importers and shipping companies, which may face strong opposition from the Industry.
o Inflation risk: Additional port fees may lead to a decline in the competitiveness of USA product exports, and Congress may adjust policies.
• Adjustment probability: 25% (i.e., the political impact may lower the probability of policy implementation).
(3) Industry Reaction (𝑃(Policy Approval|Industry Impact))
• Global shipping...
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$Newton Golf (SPGC.US)$
I will write theory and methodology for stock trading. reason I want to write them is to remind myself that I must follow the rules when trading stock, so I can avoid lose too much money (everyone wins/loses money, but if we follow the right and strict rules we would lose less and win more money). making or losing money is related to personality. e.g., some people just don't believe the stock would drop more and think the stock would rise again, so they hold it. in ...
I will write theory and methodology for stock trading. reason I want to write them is to remind myself that I must follow the rules when trading stock, so I can avoid lose too much money (everyone wins/loses money, but if we follow the right and strict rules we would lose less and win more money). making or losing money is related to personality. e.g., some people just don't believe the stock would drop more and think the stock would rise again, so they hold it. in ...
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As market uncertainty increases, more and more investors are turning their attention to Dividend Stocks, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflationary pressures. Dividend Stocks have become a defensive strategy for many professional investors. On the Futubull platform, such investment strategies are gaining increasing attention, especially for those who wish to maintain stable returns in a volatile market. This article will delve into the performance of Dividend Stocks in the current market environment and discuss how to utilize this strategy to achieve stable income, thereby helping investors make informed decisions in a challenging market.
Defensive Strategy of Dividend Stocks: A choice for stable returns.
In 2025, the performance of Dividend Stocks significantly outperformed many other types of Stocks, especially during periods of intensified market fluctuations. According to the latest market data, Dividend-focused ETFs like Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF and SPDR S&P Dividend ETF have already achieved over a 4% increase this year, while major indices like the S&P 500 have seen a decline. This phenomenon reflects the rising demand for stable income from investors, particularly in an environment of increased market uncertainty. The defensive characteristics of Dividend Stocks make them an attractive choice for long-term investors, especially those seeking low volatility and the ability to withstand market shocks.
Defensive Strategy of Dividend Stocks: A choice for stable returns.
In 2025, the performance of Dividend Stocks significantly outperformed many other types of Stocks, especially during periods of intensified market fluctuations. According to the latest market data, Dividend-focused ETFs like Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF and SPDR S&P Dividend ETF have already achieved over a 4% increase this year, while major indices like the S&P 500 have seen a decline. This phenomenon reflects the rising demand for stable income from investors, particularly in an environment of increased market uncertainty. The defensive characteristics of Dividend Stocks make them an attractive choice for long-term investors, especially those seeking low volatility and the ability to withstand market shocks.
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Safer to play this now with this shiet market hehe 😈
$ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
$Palantir (PLTR.US)$
$Strategy (MSTR.US)$
$ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
$Palantir (PLTR.US)$
$Strategy (MSTR.US)$
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CIMB has broken through the top-heavy and bottom-light chip peak and the 200-day moving average, and there is only one situation in which one can catch the falling knife! [ENG SUB]
$CIMB (1023.MY)$
CIMB has broken through the top-heavy and bottom-light chip peak and the 200-day moving average, and there is only one situation in which one can catch the falling knife! [ENG SUB]
$CIMB (1023.MY)$
CIMB has broken through the top-heavy and bottom-light chip peak and the 200-day moving average, and there is only one situation in which one can catch the falling knife! [ENG SUB]
Translated
From YouTube
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Hey mooers! ![]()
The February Match has just wrapped up! Let’s see who nailed it and snagged the $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ shares rewards!
Don’t forget to join in the March Match and take the last chance to win Nvidia shares!
👏 Revealing the winners
Congrats to @151352557 @15163049 @Stock Rookie @nobody69420 @ExitLiquidity @熊本无相 @152287690 @151782476 @New_To_Stocks @151431451 for winning the February Match of US stocks paper trading! 🎉🎉
And do...
The February Match has just wrapped up! Let’s see who nailed it and snagged the $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ shares rewards!
Don’t forget to join in the March Match and take the last chance to win Nvidia shares!
👏 Revealing the winners
Congrats to @151352557 @15163049 @Stock Rookie @nobody69420 @ExitLiquidity @熊本无相 @152287690 @151782476 @New_To_Stocks @151431451 for winning the February Match of US stocks paper trading! 🎉🎉
And do...
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Columns Live Stock News: Chips Falling Alongside Crypto Despite Trump Money News-- the Honeymoon is Over
Happy Monday investors, it's the first trading day of March, the third. The market was lower, sitting right at the one-hundred-day moving average. Nvidia is falling, while the rest of the Magnificent Seven attempts to halt its week-long drop in to the correction zone. But that was not the biggest news moving through our community, let's check in with the live stock news, or you'll never see the whole ...
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