czsylda : First of all, the market expected to cut interest rates in June was less than 50%, and even if interest rates were cut in June, the second quarter was nearing its end, and Tesla deliveries still had to be sent.
Second, do interest rates really have that much impact on Tesla's delivery? The impact is certain, but is the impact really big enough to cause Tesla to grow negatively year-on-year for the first time in 20 years? If it really had such a big impact, why was Toyota, which is also a car company, able to deliver a positive 9% increase in delivery.
Therefore, not all of Tesla's problems can be blamed on the macro level, nor can we place all hope that macro improvements will make Tesla's delivery much better

czsylda : It can continue to weaken even after diverging. Look how many times SPY has diverged, isn't it still rising?

czsylda 71459788 OP : Like you said, this is a game of probability; it's not science. Especially when there is a problem with the fundamentals of a stock, technical indicators often fail (also a game of probability)

czsylda : But if you think about it, BYD's market is mostly only in China, and the level of competition in China is fierce, and BYD still can't enter the US market. If you do, see how much Tesla can still deliver in the US.
Additionally, Toyota's 1Q deliveries increased 9%. This does not mean that people's demand to buy cars has declined, but rather that demand for EVs has declined...

czsylda FF-Rise OP : Of course, I have confidence in the future. I'm talking about the problems we have faced in 24 years. As a Tesla investor, you must not only have a long-term vision, but also have short-term risk management and awareness, and comfort yourself with Tesla's bright future if anything goes wrong. If an enterprise is unable to solve the difficulties it faces in the short term, how can we believe that it will be able to overcome more unknown challenges in the future?

czsylda : Isn't that a huge problem with EV sales, which accounts for 90% of Tesla's revenue? Demand for EVs has slowed, but at the same time, Toyota's deliveries have risen 9% in the first quarter. The advantages of EVs over fuel trucks are now difficult to convince the public (mainly too expensive). At the same time, competition in the EV industry has intensified, and it seems that in 24 years, Tesla can't see any way to reverse this decline - FSD has progressed rapidly but the conversion rate is still very low, and there is a lot of uncertainty about future regulations, and mass production of the Model 2 ended in '25... However, even under these circumstances, Wall Street still gave Tesla a forward price-earnings ratio of 60X. In comparison, it only gave the average tanker brand GM 6X price-earnings ratio...
As I said, Tesla's stock price still has a lot of room to fall...

czsylda : Stock price ≠ a company's revenue, profit, liabilities, or cash flow
Second, SpaceX and TSLA are two completely different and independent companies. They each have separate operating and financial situations. One day Tesla actually goes bankrupt, it won't affect Musk's rocket launch

czsylda : When the delivery data came out today, Tesla also said that the earnings report period is 4/23

czsylda : Agree.