Cantom OP Boris Johnson : Hey, thanks for the comment
Yes, I see a resistance around 140 as well based on my technical analysis.
By the way, looking at much longer term, I expect USD/JPY hitting below 100 with US02Y 1.00% and the yield gap between 10y & 2y being 2.50%, unless long term yields gaining momentum upwards, which I don’t think very likely with the current CDS level.
We are still at the very beginning of the rate cuts. Let’s see how it plays out

Cantom OP Ghost2737 : Hi! Telling when is the last thing I want to do, but it should take more than one year before that happens.
There are quite a few events for JPY to reach that level such as; Credit crunch, liquidity crises, demand destruction, QE etc…
The Fed is covering up the banking crisis with BTFP, and excess liquidity from which you can tell historical amount of Reverse Repo. I suspect the Fed is unofficially allowing banks to do installment repayments, looking at the current repayment pace of BTFP.
Also the government is buying back treasury bonds to add more liquidity to the market against QT. They are too afraid of what is to happen next
Anyways 100 level needs to be backed up by negative economic events. I expect the leveraged loans will completely ruin the Fed and the government’s plans.

Cantom : I feel the market is pricing in 50 bps rate cut, looking at the US01MY. If the Fed decides to do 25bps, the stock market and bonds might react negatively. I am rather interested in how the future rate cuts affect the BTFP loan repayments though

Cantom : No, don’t do that when the VIX future is in backwardation.

Cantom 104876179 : VIX futures are usually in strong contango, which is why shorting VIX futures is a great rolling strategy. However, when VIX futures are in backwardation, it indicates that the VIX is currently excessively high. I think $SIMPLIFY VOLATILITY PREMIUM ETF (SVOL.US)$ might help you grasp the idea

Cantom Nidia_Girl OP : That’s all good if that works for you. I usually buy spx call options when this happens for much higher profits, which actually returned +700% in a few days…

Cantom Nidia_Girl OP : I just transferred from another broker. Nice meeting you anyways:)