Summary of the USA interest rate decision meeting on March 20, 2025 (Thursday) —
1. Maintain the interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, expecting a two-rate cut in 2025.
2. Starting in April, further reduce the balance sheet (more easing).
The new government policies (tariffs) have led to economic uncertainty, lowering the USA's 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.7% (originally 2.5%).
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that if the economy remains strong, high interest rates will be maintained; but if the labor market weakens or inflation decreases rapidly, interest rates may be cut earlier.
Policy wording adjustments reflect economic uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve statement removed the phrase "risks are roughly balanced" and added "uncertainty in the economic outlook has increased," indicating that decision-makers are more concerned about market risks. Although this does not represent a change in policy direction, it may affect market expectations regarding future MMF policy.
Economic growth forecast has been revised down, while inflation and unemployment rate forecasts have been revised up.
The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 has been revised up from 2.5% to 2.7%.
The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.1% to 1.7%.
The unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to rise to 4.4% (previous forecast 4.3%).
Powell pointed out that although the economy remains resilient, consumer spending has begun to weaken, and the Federal Reserve will closely monitor changes in the real economy. The impact of trade tariffs and market concerns.
Former USA President Trump plans to impose tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, and both China and the USA may take countermeasures. Powell acknowledged that tariffs could bring...

Overall long-term trend remains bullish, but in the short term, several months of consolidation are facing. The Indices continue to consolidate, and the market structure gradually improves. Investors should remain cautious, strictly implement Trade discipline, and continuously pay attention to market changes. The Large Cap has been consolidating in the Range for several months now, and this oscillation is actually preparing for a subsequent breakthrough. The short-term pullback of the US stock market has a significant impact on the Taiwan stock market, Japanese stocks, and Asian stocks, so it is best to withdraw funds first and act after considering.

In my opinion, the chance of Trump imposing tariffs on Taiwan's Semiconductors is zero, as these products are unlikely to be replaced immediately. Instead, it would increase the costs of AI-related hardware, affecting his desire to establish a supply chain in the USA. Deepseek's emergence is not about comparing with Open AI or Chat Gpt for speed in responses, so there is no need to spend a lot of money to buy chips from Nvidia, build a larger Big Data database, or train bigger models, but rather to produce different products based on different needs. It's not about seeking speed, but giving more time to achieve more perfect answers. Naturally, China's demand and desire for American chips will not be greater than before. The battlefield has shifted to cloud computing centers, with the USA restricting GPU shipments. Now everyone wants to change the current rules of the AI gaming, and naturally find the next wave of revenue. Who obtains more computing resources, China's level of independent GPU development will determine the future of Sino-American competition, and the outcomes are yet to be seen.

All that has form is illusion.