The core of options trading is to understand the relationship between stock price, implied volatility (IV), and time.
1. How to determine the position of the exercise price for options at expiration? For the grasp of the exercise price of options at expiration, it is usually possible to determine based on the location of the stock price with the highest outstanding quantity in the list, such as the Put options above, where there is an outstanding quantity of 0.1457 million at the $125 level, and 0.1 million at the $130 level. Combined with the current market situation, and the release of today's CPI data, if the stock price drops from 132 to 130 or 125, it only needs a 3-5 point movement, considering that today is Wednesday, with 3 more trading days until Friday's expiration, a fluctuation of 3-5 points is entirely feasible. It can be seen that NVIDIA will mainly enter short positions and open Put options next.
In addition, it is recommended for moomoo to place new opening position data and outstanding position data in a prominent position, as this helps retail investors identify the intentions of institutional investors.
Stock prices are usually driven by block orders, and by comparing the daily large opening orders data with open interest data, it is usually relatively easy to determine the range of options delivery prices on Fridays. Especially, before major news like last night, looking at NVIDIA's opening data, there was no significant change in the open interest data for put options below 100, which means that the market news had little impact on NVIDIA dropping below 100, and the market basically did not consider NVIDIA falling below 100 this week.
It is recommended to compare the new open positions data with the open positions data and place it in a prominent location.

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With the release of the financial report, Nvidia's trend also becomes clear. Previous speculations are gradually being validated. Therefore, based on the financial report market, we need to adjust our trading strategy.
First of all, let me state: making stock price predictions is only to facilitate us in taking necessary trading strategies to make money. When the prediction is correct, it is just luck and nothing superior. After predicting the direction correctly, we need to implement it in our trades. Making money in a downtrend market is our goal.
Here, I will first share a few random predictions to boost my confidence for the next step.
Now let's get to the point, how will Nvidia's market in September develop? When and at what price is it suitable to bottom fish?
1. Review of Nvidia's financial report market:
Since the previous speculation has been confirmed, my confidence in the speculation has also increased. I would like to thank the analysis and judgment shared by the members in the group.
Since the stock split, Nvidia experienced a large-scale decline at the end of July and the beginning of August, probably dropping from 140 to the range of 90. At the beginning of August, I predicted that Nvidia would rebound to 115, and the stock price rebounded from 90 to 130, confirming this speculation. The price of 130 is higher than 115, which is a bit higher, but the rebound strategy has been proven correct, which strengthens my confidence. Now it is time to see how low the stock price can go during the financial report market.
2. Prediction of Nvidia's market in September:
Currently, with the financial report released, Nvidia's financial report is better than expected, but lower than the market's expectation for Nvidia. So...