Question 1:
We all know that TQQQ is three times as long as QQQ, so buying one TQQQ share is equivalent to buying how many QQQ shares? In other words, after buying x shares tqqq, what is the ratio of x and y to achieve the same profit/loss?
If your answer is 3, then you've made a mistake. A clear understanding of the leverage ratio is very important for leveraged ETFs.
The current price of qqq is 426, and tqqq is 56; the ratio of the two rates of change is three times, that is, qqq increased by 1% and tqqq increased by 3%. The actual change in stock price is that qqq rose 4.26, and tqqq rose 1.68. The calculation shows that 4.26/1.68 = 2.5, which means that the increase in 1 share of qqq requires buying 2.5 shares of tqqq to eat.
Question 2:
What is the utilization rate of funds?
As can be seen from the above question, in the case where the profit is the same, the ratio of QQQ and TQQ shares is 1:2.5, and the amount required to invest is 426:140 = 3. Therefore, everyone should be aware that triple leverage is based on capital rather than number of shares. At this point, the results are very intuitive. Next, let's discuss the options issue.
The current monthly option call ATM price is qqq: tqqq = 9.2:3.4 = 2.7. The result we got in question 1 is 2.5, which is very close. However, there is also a share leverage ratio for options.
How to choose:
1...
We all know that TQQQ is three times as long as QQQ, so buying one TQQQ share is equivalent to buying how many QQQ shares? In other words, after buying x shares tqqq, what is the ratio of x and y to achieve the same profit/loss?
If your answer is 3, then you've made a mistake. A clear understanding of the leverage ratio is very important for leveraged ETFs.
The current price of qqq is 426, and tqqq is 56; the ratio of the two rates of change is three times, that is, qqq increased by 1% and tqqq increased by 3%. The actual change in stock price is that qqq rose 4.26, and tqqq rose 1.68. The calculation shows that 4.26/1.68 = 2.5, which means that the increase in 1 share of qqq requires buying 2.5 shares of tqqq to eat.
Question 2:
What is the utilization rate of funds?
As can be seen from the above question, in the case where the profit is the same, the ratio of QQQ and TQQ shares is 1:2.5, and the amount required to invest is 426:140 = 3. Therefore, everyone should be aware that triple leverage is based on capital rather than number of shares. At this point, the results are very intuitive. Next, let's discuss the options issue.
The current monthly option call ATM price is qqq: tqqq = 9.2:3.4 = 2.7. The result we got in question 1 is 2.5, which is very close. However, there is also a share leverage ratio for options.
How to choose:
1...
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Before starting the text, please be clear: in the market, apart from the most basic treasury bonds and monetary funds, there are almost no risk-free arbitrage opportunities. Low returns do not necessarily correspond to low risks, but high returns necessarily correspond to high risks.
I think stock market investment is an impossible triangle: low risk, high return, short time. Only two of these three can exist at the same time. Even if they are investment geniuses and have a very high winning rate when choosing the right time, they can only increase the chance of appearing in the third place, and cannot completely deviate from this rule. For us retail investors, the easiest and most effective method is to exchange time for space, buy and hold, use longer time, lower risk, and ultimately obtain high profits. Please always remember:When you see attractive high returns, never give up your capital until you understand what kind of risk this investment actually has.
Back to the topic, I don't think TSly or any of the other YieldMax individual stocks covered call ETFs are suitable for simple buy-and-hold, and it's almost impossible to rely on tsly alone to obtain stable income. $YIELDMAX TSLA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF (TSLY.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$
TSLY's distribution rate is over 50%. Although it can continue to collect premium in volatile markets and falling markets, there are two things to keep in mind:
1. The price of the premium received...
I think stock market investment is an impossible triangle: low risk, high return, short time. Only two of these three can exist at the same time. Even if they are investment geniuses and have a very high winning rate when choosing the right time, they can only increase the chance of appearing in the third place, and cannot completely deviate from this rule. For us retail investors, the easiest and most effective method is to exchange time for space, buy and hold, use longer time, lower risk, and ultimately obtain high profits. Please always remember:When you see attractive high returns, never give up your capital until you understand what kind of risk this investment actually has.
Back to the topic, I don't think TSly or any of the other YieldMax individual stocks covered call ETFs are suitable for simple buy-and-hold, and it's almost impossible to rely on tsly alone to obtain stable income. $YIELDMAX TSLA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF (TSLY.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$
TSLY's distribution rate is over 50%. Although it can continue to collect premium in volatile markets and falling markets, there are two things to keep in mind:
1. The price of the premium received...
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As we all know, most of this year's market gains have come from tech giants. However, the stock market doesn't just rise or fall. Especially in times of economic turmoil and increased uncertainty, stable returns and lower risk investments can increase long-term returns.
Moreover, to be honest, when every day is tiring, the dividend strategy should take up part of the position, at least seek peace of mind. In my opinion, there are roughly five types of dividend instruments that can be held for a long time:
1. Dividend individual stocks. This is divided into traditional stocks, such as PFE and KO; and growth stocks, such as MSFT.
2. Profit transfer stocks. BDC investment corporate bonds, MLP investment energy, royalty trust investment minerals, REITs investment real estate
3. Treasury bonds are divided into short-term debt and long-term debt
4. Monetary funds and savings
5. options strategy etf
Regarding dividend stocks:
A stable and continuous dividend payment history, and the dividend rate usually does not exceed 15%. Higher than this number means the company is in big trouble; if dividends are frequently skipped, or the amount of dividends often changes drastically, it is generally not a qualified dividend strategy stock
The company's financial health: The company's debt load, cash flow, and other financial metrics to ensure that it has sufficient funds to continue to pay dividends.
Sustainability of business models: For example, in the petroleum industry, if you think electric motors will completely replace internal combustion engines in the future, then the business of traditional energy companies may be greatly eroded
Growth potential: such as aapl $Apple (AAPL.US)$ MR and MSFT...
Moreover, to be honest, when every day is tiring, the dividend strategy should take up part of the position, at least seek peace of mind. In my opinion, there are roughly five types of dividend instruments that can be held for a long time:
1. Dividend individual stocks. This is divided into traditional stocks, such as PFE and KO; and growth stocks, such as MSFT.
2. Profit transfer stocks. BDC investment corporate bonds, MLP investment energy, royalty trust investment minerals, REITs investment real estate
3. Treasury bonds are divided into short-term debt and long-term debt
4. Monetary funds and savings
5. options strategy etf
Regarding dividend stocks:
A stable and continuous dividend payment history, and the dividend rate usually does not exceed 15%. Higher than this number means the company is in big trouble; if dividends are frequently skipped, or the amount of dividends often changes drastically, it is generally not a qualified dividend strategy stock
The company's financial health: The company's debt load, cash flow, and other financial metrics to ensure that it has sufficient funds to continue to pay dividends.
Sustainability of business models: For example, in the petroleum industry, if you think electric motors will completely replace internal combustion engines in the future, then the business of traditional energy companies may be greatly eroded
Growth potential: such as aapl $Apple (AAPL.US)$ MR and MSFT...
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My DIS holdings as of today's close $Disney (DIS.US)$ and UPST $Upstart (UPST.US)$ They are all in a state of loss, yet during this period of decline, buying low and selling Covered Call high has instead made my total position profitable, and AMZN $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Covered calls have also increased my profit.
The exercise prices I chose were all able to enjoy some of the increase even if they were sold too far. The exercise dates were at the end of September/early October. On the one hand, I was worried that September might drop briefly; on the other hand, options that expire in one month reached a balance between time value and operating space.
I have been optimistic about these companies for a long time, but I don't mind selling them at any time; cash is waiting for an opportunity. In the current environment, having a bank or buying short-term treasury bonds has considerable benefits.
The exercise prices I chose were all able to enjoy some of the increase even if they were sold too far. The exercise dates were at the end of September/early October. On the one hand, I was worried that September might drop briefly; on the other hand, options that expire in one month reached a balance between time value and operating space.
I have been optimistic about these companies for a long time, but I don't mind selling them at any time; cash is waiting for an opportunity. In the current environment, having a bank or buying short-term treasury bonds has considerable benefits.
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ NVDA's trend over the past few days has had ups and downs. Not to mention the sharp rise before and after the financial report, depending on the recent few days, when IV hasn't changed much, the price fluctuation from 470-495 is commonplace. Although in comparison, 470 to 495 has only risen 5.3%, yet the price change of an option can reach 100%-300%.
However, there are a number of issues to consider when buying call options:
1. The value of time. If you think NVDA will reach 500 within half a month, then buy its 500 20230915 call option, but if you guess wrong, even if NVDA is trading sideways at 495, this option will lose an average of 85 yuan a day, and eventually become a piece of waste paper. And if you finally reach 500 or more, part of your profit will still be affected by the reduction in time value.
2. Expanding volatility. Take today's trend as an example. The image of NVDA is roughly a parabola opening downward, 484-499-492. If you buy a large number of call options at 495, wait 500 at 499 and sell without stopping loss, then your loss is today's time value plus the decline that has been increased tens of times. If you wake up tomorrow, you can see a loss of 20%-30% for each option.
3. The profit to loss ratio is not good. You might say that the maximum loss of buying an option is limited, and the maximum gain is unlimited. However, in reality, the sell-by period...
However, there are a number of issues to consider when buying call options:
1. The value of time. If you think NVDA will reach 500 within half a month, then buy its 500 20230915 call option, but if you guess wrong, even if NVDA is trading sideways at 495, this option will lose an average of 85 yuan a day, and eventually become a piece of waste paper. And if you finally reach 500 or more, part of your profit will still be affected by the reduction in time value.
2. Expanding volatility. Take today's trend as an example. The image of NVDA is roughly a parabola opening downward, 484-499-492. If you buy a large number of call options at 495, wait 500 at 499 and sell without stopping loss, then your loss is today's time value plus the decline that has been increased tens of times. If you wake up tomorrow, you can see a loss of 20%-30% for each option.
3. The profit to loss ratio is not good. You might say that the maximum loss of buying an option is limited, and the maximum gain is unlimited. However, in reality, the sell-by period...
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If you haven't read it, you can review my previous postStrong hedging remains unchanged, and Nvidia's earnings report will continue to changeI mentioned that you should not gamble on financial reports with options; even if you bet, you should short the volatility rate. Because even if I'm bullish on NVDA as a whole, buying Call when IV far exceeds HV, the probability of losing money is extremely high.
Today NVDA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ It plummeted more than once at the opening, breaking all the way down from 502 to 475. After a short pullback, it reached 471, which happened to be yesterday's closing price. On the options chain, the opening price for 500 calls due this week is 12.45, but in reality, this price cannot be traded; most people's transaction price is around 7. However, its closing price yesterday was 11.63. In other words, if it went in the right direction, you still lost half of it, and if you weren't convinced, you can imagine the results. This call is now close to zero. Interested friends can check the price changes for ATM PUT and CALL themselves. Almost all of the options bought at the close of the day yesterday that expire this week lost more than 50% when the market closed today.
Other than market makers, the happiest people today are probably friends who saw my post last time and went short on financial reports with me. In today's market environment, if you don't lose money, you make money.
Other tech stocks followed suit today, and VIX did not rise significantly. My judgment is that today's decline is to prepare for tomorrow's fluctuations. Whether market sentiment changes, we will have to wait...
Today NVDA $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ It plummeted more than once at the opening, breaking all the way down from 502 to 475. After a short pullback, it reached 471, which happened to be yesterday's closing price. On the options chain, the opening price for 500 calls due this week is 12.45, but in reality, this price cannot be traded; most people's transaction price is around 7. However, its closing price yesterday was 11.63. In other words, if it went in the right direction, you still lost half of it, and if you weren't convinced, you can imagine the results. This call is now close to zero. Interested friends can check the price changes for ATM PUT and CALL themselves. Almost all of the options bought at the close of the day yesterday that expire this week lost more than 50% when the market closed today.
Other than market makers, the happiest people today are probably friends who saw my post last time and went short on financial reports with me. In today's market environment, if you don't lose money, you make money.
Other tech stocks followed suit today, and VIX did not rise significantly. My judgment is that today's decline is to prepare for tomorrow's fluctuations. Whether market sentiment changes, we will have to wait...
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Bull spread put qqq that opened a position last week $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ and spies $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ There was a slight loss after today's rise in the general market and technology stocks, but there are no plans to stop loss. I think general market risks remain in the short to medium term.
The technology stock in my hands amzn $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ and UPST $Upstart (UPST.US)$ Continue to sell covered calls to protect/prepare to sell stocks. Among them, AMZN's license price is 129, which expires at the end of next month. If it falls to around 132, I would consider continuing to sell stocks in Nacang. If I really can't sell it, the more I lose my position. The current position is relatively small, and there isn't much of a problem with the fundamentals of AMZN, so I'm not at all alarmed in the long run.
Interest rate cuts may occur from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. By that time, tlt $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ There will be a lot of room for price increases. So don't get bogged down in the short-term trend of TLT. This thing is very expensive in time, and you can only make money if you hold it for a long time, and the black swan hedging effect it brings is considered a giveaway. A tlt position of 10%-20% is sufficient.
NVDA is rising today...
The technology stock in my hands amzn $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ and UPST $Upstart (UPST.US)$ Continue to sell covered calls to protect/prepare to sell stocks. Among them, AMZN's license price is 129, which expires at the end of next month. If it falls to around 132, I would consider continuing to sell stocks in Nacang. If I really can't sell it, the more I lose my position. The current position is relatively small, and there isn't much of a problem with the fundamentals of AMZN, so I'm not at all alarmed in the long run.
Interest rate cuts may occur from the end of this year to the beginning of next year. By that time, tlt $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ There will be a lot of room for price increases. So don't get bogged down in the short-term trend of TLT. This thing is very expensive in time, and you can only make money if you hold it for a long time, and the black swan hedging effect it brings is considered a giveaway. A tlt position of 10%-20% is sufficient.
NVDA is rising today...
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I opened a spy position yesterday $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and QQQ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ The spread bull put expires on September 29, and the near-end exercise rights prices are 432 and 350, respectively.
Here's my trading plan:
If the exercise price is not reached after two weeks, if the general market trend is sideways, then it will roll to the end of October; if technology stocks and the general market rise, they may have to accept the stop loss. The time costs associated with left-hand trading are not necessarily acceptable to me.
If the exercise price is reached at any time within two weeks, I will immediately close my position, and the short side will not consider taking over shares. Since index options are used, in the absence of black swans, it is unrealistic to want to go all the way down; there is a high risk of floating profit and increasing positions.
Since it has been selling covered calls, high sales and low absorption reduce costs, Amzn $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ and DIS $Disney (DIS.US)$ This week's downturn hasn't caused me any loss. All of my profits have already been reduced to safety, and my losses don't seem to matter.
upst $Upstart (UPST.US)$ CC has floating losses, but if the stock price is still trading sideways around 33 until next week, it will be able to eat up quite a bit of time value, float...
Here's my trading plan:
If the exercise price is not reached after two weeks, if the general market trend is sideways, then it will roll to the end of October; if technology stocks and the general market rise, they may have to accept the stop loss. The time costs associated with left-hand trading are not necessarily acceptable to me.
If the exercise price is reached at any time within two weeks, I will immediately close my position, and the short side will not consider taking over shares. Since index options are used, in the absence of black swans, it is unrealistic to want to go all the way down; there is a high risk of floating profit and increasing positions.
Since it has been selling covered calls, high sales and low absorption reduce costs, Amzn $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ and DIS $Disney (DIS.US)$ This week's downturn hasn't caused me any loss. All of my profits have already been reduced to safety, and my losses don't seem to matter.
upst $Upstart (UPST.US)$ CC has floating losses, but if the stock price is still trading sideways around 33 until next week, it will be able to eat up quite a bit of time value, float...
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Got it $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ with $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ Put in the long-term price and prepare to hold it close to an ATM.
In addition to the stocks in hand $Pfizer (PFE.US)$ and DIS $Disney (DIS.US)$ They are all ready to buy fictitious value and run away. If you don't succeed, then these index puts will start to work, and in the end, you may even be able to make a profit.
Get ready to buy Tesla in high school $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Put, this wave saw 200-210
In addition to the stocks in hand $Pfizer (PFE.US)$ and DIS $Disney (DIS.US)$ They are all ready to buy fictitious value and run away. If you don't succeed, then these index puts will start to work, and in the end, you may even be able to make a profit.
Get ready to buy Tesla in high school $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Put, this wave saw 200-210
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Most of today's holdings have quietly dropped quite a bit after the market, but so far it's not too alarming. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ $Upstart (UPST.US)$ $Disney (DIS.US)$ These are the three most comfortable stocks recently. Currently, there is a sideway-down-sideways trend. Selling CC high and buying low has reduced costs quite a bit. This recent trend is very suitable for CC. The win rate of DIS has exceeded 95% in the past two days. Upst is also ready to sell. Both UPST and DIS won't drop much in the short term. Upst may even reach 35-36, so there's no need to buy put to prevent downside risks. However, amzn bought a 133 put, and according to the current trend, there is a possibility that it will exercise its rights. However, I'm likely to close my positions and sell stocks early, freeing up my cash.
Sold one expires on the 8th of next month $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ 92 put. Recently, the US government has been making various kinds of mischief. There doesn't seem to be any intention of cutting interest rates this year; I wonder if there will actually be a debt default. However, since they chose to invest in US stocks, it is actually also based on long-term optimism about America's domestic transportation. If TLT were to actually fall below 90, then take over the shares for a long time, and systematically sell weekly Straddle for interest.
However, I'm planning to start considering buying a black swan as a hedge. Now a lot is happening in India on the other side of the ocean...
Sold one expires on the 8th of next month $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ 92 put. Recently, the US government has been making various kinds of mischief. There doesn't seem to be any intention of cutting interest rates this year; I wonder if there will actually be a debt default. However, since they chose to invest in US stocks, it is actually also based on long-term optimism about America's domestic transportation. If TLT were to actually fall below 90, then take over the shares for a long time, and systematically sell weekly Straddle for interest.
However, I'm planning to start considering buying a black swan as a hedge. Now a lot is happening in India on the other side of the ocean...
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