10baggerbamm OP : part 2
someone consumers slow it's important that you understand small cap companies and some of these small cap companies are micro cap in the Russell and 70% of the Russell by the way they're losing money they're not even profitable which means they also carry a ton of debt and we're talking debt at 12 13% interest rates that's the going rate at this point in time. so small cap company so you understand are very much dependent upon interest rates coming down but they're also very cyclical as a basket and there are biotech that are not cyclical they're dependent upon FDA approvals and test results so let's get rid of the biotech companies out there although they need money and they tend to borrow so if they can borrow it lower rates it lets them borrow more money so it gives him the ability to push more testing through that type of thing but without getting into a category let's talk a whole basket
small cap companies are a lot more dependent upon a strong economy if the economy slows and what is slowing consumers not spending McDonald's Domino's Chipotle high-end retailers okay you following me

10baggerbamm OP : pt 3
the economy is slowing the basket of the Russell they're not going to do well because many of these companies are dependent upon the consumer which means they're going to miss earnings. and over the past 4 years or so the earnings for the Russell basket as a whole has declined it's gone down. the people that are on TV pounding the table on the Russell are going look these estimates are so ridiculously low that one rates come down they're going to do very well
and here's the problem let's suppose September we get not a 25 but a 50 basis point cut that's a half a percent 100 basis points would be one full percent number one most people now are starting to say that if pal cuts by 50 basis he sees something that the economy is slowing much faster than what it should and it's going to scare the shit out of investors and people are going to pull a plug on the small caps first because they're most dependent upon a strong economy

10baggerbamm OP : pt 4
many people now smart people that have been a business a long time that I do respect for Saint Paul needs to cut right away he can't wait because we're slowing much quicker he needs to do a 50 basis point cut not a 25 so if he does a 50 he's going to scare the shit out of the market people are going to exit the Russell right out of the gate they're done because those companies are very dependent upon a strong economy not a week economy the potentially could go into a recession now what is a recession well I have an economics degree of course all of this means shit now because under the first year of the Biden administration he had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP which is what everybody was ever tested on that took an econ 101 class but the old Billy goat you know inflation is transitory I am not even going to bother mentioning her name she added the fact that well you need to have slower employment in order to have a true recession so everybody with economics understanding for the history of the United States is now useless because they redefine what a recession is under the Biden administration. because they didn't want him to have a recession as part of his legacy.
so pal cuts 50 it means the economy is much worse consumers have already stopped spending you see it McDonald's chipotle high-end retailers go right down the list Domino's right it means all these companies are going to miss earnings because they're very dependent upon a strong economy so now he cuts 50 . 50 basis points doesn't do shit for them to get money at a lower interest rate

10baggerbamm OP : pt 5
you need 150 to 200 basis points minimum in order for it to be financially beneficial for you to refinance your debt at a lower rate because just because rates have fallen doesn't mean they're going to qualify for the best case scenario where you're going to ratchet down that 150 basis points from the rates you're at so if you're at 13 at 150 bp you're at 11 and a half now it's not that big of a savings to you..
we went up over 500 basis points so if they start to refinance on $100 150 basis points in order to get that amount of cuts it means the economy is really slowing which means you don't want to be in small caps because they're depend upon a strong economy which means chairman Powell has overshot by raising his rates cuz he's a Keynesian and he thinks he can control the economy by raising and lowering interest rates it doesn't work supply side works. so you need realistically 300 basis points three full percent cut to make a significant difference of debt service where that money translates into bottom line profits what are we talking about 18 months away minimum best case scenario probably 24 months. that's why I don't buy into Tom Lee's or anybody else on TV that's saying it's the summer of small caps now.

10baggerbamm OP : pt 6
I will tell you when I said this the other day I bought out of the money call options on TNA the January 2025 60 calls I bought a bunch of contracts at $2.30 I think that's what I printed at you can go back and look at my prior comments because I'm the first one to admit I don't know everything and I do respect this guy Tom Lee so if it goes up 10% from here 15% I'm still going to make a nice profit but I don't believe for a minute that we're going to see anything close to what he or these bobbleheads on TV are now bandwagoning about.
if you haven't fallen asleep by now I hope you got something out of this it's my opinion I'm not always right that's for damn sure I'm right more than I'm wrong I have gotten my ass fucking handed me in the past 13 days but going back to that Gloria Gaynor song of the seventies I Will survive.

10baggerbamm OP thoughtful Bat_8163 : it's also people substitute, so even if they go they may skip an app and just order a meal so avg ticket sales and profits per seating are down.

10baggerbamm OP : pt 2
and then you have the best of the Russell ultimately get purged out supermicro is now part of the NASDAQ 100 granite it's crashed everything has and what it's going to go when it's place another microcap small cap company with enormous losses and huge debts on their books. so smart investors are supposed to rotate out of the most profitable companies into ones that are highly dependent upon economic growth and we know the economy is slowing so that's counterintuitive you would never buy a small cap micro cap company when the economies are slowing but we're supposed to believe that this index is going to go up 40% and that's where all of this money that's being sold out of these proven winning tech companies most with no debt on their books with enormous barriers to entry we're supposed to go into these micro cap and small cap companies. we're supposed to buy healthcare companies biotech companies that are large companies insurance companies these are all cyclical Giants

10baggerbamm OP : pt 3
they go up they come down they go up they come down that's it buying holding them results in a net of zero you get a dividend you reinvest it that's the extent. there's truly no growth because regulations constrain it. so we own tech companies and now the world has decided that they're overvalued and hedge funds are short in the shit out of every single one of them because they can.. and Google I know that's not their name but I was there when they had their IPO, had one tiny matrix of advertising on YouTube that wasn't up to snuff you know why that is because when an economy slows advertising dollars of the first thing that goes and we saw it when there used to be a lot of print with newspapers advertising would slow papers would get thinner magazines ads would get less so the magazines would become thinner they wouldn't need a binding they would use a staple. so everything else on Google was terrific and they marked it down and they talked about capex well wait a second they're investing money for the future meta is coming out Microsoft's coming out they're all coming out this coming week do you think they're going to slow their Capital expenditures I don't I think they're going to be accelerating them because the alternative is they're paying taxes with the money so why not invest in the future that's smart business.

10baggerbamm OP : pt 4
everybody understands that Nvidia is number 1 AMD is number two it's indisputable but they want us to sell winning companies whose technology is adopted and will continue to be adapted into every sector around the world every country around the world and we're supposed to sell these companies and buy retail stores really we're supposed to buy Pfizer we're supposed to buy Banks there's no growth in that there's cyclical companies they go up they go down they have their 10-15% swings and that's it.
so we're down 20% 25% from the peak in this company and more so in other companies and the pain is excruciating because every day you wake up there's no bottom you get nauseous you want to throw up you want to puke you start questioning your judgment your logic I could have should have would have. everybody on TV is saying we're at the beginning of an AI bubble crash the people that are saying that didn't own any of these companies on the way up by the way. so where's the bottom? back in April we had what could have been the beginning of world war 3 with Iran and Israel and markets got trashed and they recovered. and now we have an uncertain future from a political standpoint in the United States where one person is directly responsible for the problems that have persisted with the debts with the illegal activities coming across the border with the deaths of fentanyl and you have the corrupt media but now wants to put her on the pedestal and say what a wonderful person she is oh and she wasn't the border czar.

10baggerbamm OP : 5
everybody knows the truth they're using what is the polite way of saying gas lighting or lying. if she gets in her way is all the insurance companies are out of business but wait a second they haven't crashed yet but she wants a nationalized health Care system with taxes up to about 70%, why aren't the insurance companies crashing? I know this is getting long and winded. I know it's off topic and I was asked by multiple people yesterday where is the bottom at what point I can't take it anymore... I don't have an answer because they don't ring the bell at the bottom or the top. I will tell you back in 2009 I felt the same pressure that I'm feeling now my losses are significantly greater right now by an exponential magnitude and I'm sure others feel the same way everything that you worked for on the way up just evaporated that quick and now you're sitting on losses. I sold two days before the absolute bottom in 2009. because I couldn't take it anymore.... I don't know where the bottom is here but I have that same feeling I'm getting the point that I can't take it anymore.

10baggerbamm OP 被祝福的账户 : it's written right there you can see it

10baggerbamm OP AUgainer42069 : he has 190 million followers, that's what shows up when I click on that person