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收米仙人 Private ID: 74605943
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    $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$
    Step one, have Taiwan Semiconductor build a factory in USA (2020).
    Step two, have Taiwan Semiconductor move its advanced processes (2022).
    Step three, have Taiwan Semiconductor expand capacity and relocate its R&D center (2025).
    Step four: Restrict Taiwan Semiconductor's local manufacturing in Taiwan (2027)
    Step five: Acquire Taiwan Semiconductor (2029)
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    $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Trump's tariffs will not have a significant impact on Taiwan Semiconductor, as the company's technology is currently in a steep lead, and moreover, it is an important part of the USA's high-end Industry Chain. The effect of imposing tariffs on it is very small; ultimately, it is likely that the costs will be passed on to the USA itself. However, the more serious issue for the USA is Taiwan Semiconductor's geographical location. Its advanced manufacturing processes have significant national strategic importance. If Trump cannot relocate it to the USA, the best method would be to eliminate it (referencing Japan's Toshiba and Germany's Siemens). It is highly probable that Taiwan Semiconductor will move all advanced manufacturing to the USA in the next four years, with Taiwan only handling mature processes, leading to a decrease in its foundry share from nearly 70% to 40%, while giving 30% to the USA and its local foundries. Although this would mean self-mutilation, it would still allow the company to survive.
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